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Northwest Florida
01-16-2009, 01:52 PM
Post: #21
Northwest Florida
They were calling upper 20's here and they missed it by a long shot. It was only 40 and the normal colder spots didn't get down to predicted levels of the mid 20's.

Upper air pattern is currently southwest and this produced a bunch of clouds and that hung around all night and kept temps up.
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01-16-2009, 08:12 PM
Post: #22
Northwest Florida
It was 29 on Eglin when I got up at 5 this mornin. It's supossed to be even colder tonight.
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01-18-2009, 08:38 AM
Post: #23
Northwest Florida
Looks like the cold weather is gone for now, time to get back in the 70s. Florida hasn't had much of a winter this year. It's 62 already and it's only 0740.
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01-19-2009, 09:30 AM
Post: #24
Northwest Florida
Nope coming back with a vengence

[FONT="Georgia"][SIZE="3"]Notice this little tid-bit from Tampa's Morning Forecast Discussion[/SIZE][/FONT]

ANOTHER ISSUE WILL TAKE SHAPE LATER TUESDAY...WITH STRONG LLVL CAA SETTING UP AN UNSTABLE LAYER FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY THICK STRATO CU DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND MOVING ONSHORE OVER WC FL ON NW WINDS. NAM AND GFS CLEARLY DEPICT THESE CLOUDS IN THE 850-925 MB LAYER DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY MID-LATE TUESDAY...WHICH THEN AFFECT MUCH OF OUR CWA (EXCEPT FAR INTERIOR ZONES) TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFTER WHICH THE AVG WIND IN THAT LAYER WILL TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND PUSH THE CLOUDS SOUTH AND KEEP THEM IN THE GULF. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER IN THIS CASE...THE FREEZING LEVEL BY 00Z WED WILL BE AROUND 2500 FT WITH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. INITIALLY THIS WOULD SUGGEST FROZEN PRECIP...BUT THE COLDEST TEMP WITHIN THIS CLOUD LAYER WILL ONLY BE ABOUT -6C...WHICH NORMALLY ISN`T COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION...LEAVING SUPERCOOLED WATER IN THAT LAYER (NOTED STRONG INVERSION AND WARMING ABOVE 850 MB). ITS WORTH NOTING THOUGH...ONE LAST VORT MAX WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS N FL AROUND 00Z. THAT ALONG WITH LLVL CONVECTIVE LIFT COULD POTENTIALLY COOL THE MOIST LAYER ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WHICH WOULD HELP INITIATE THE ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION NEEDED TO MIX THE SUPERCOOLED RAIN DROPS WITH SNOW. HAVING SAID ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SPRINKLES ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR FROM PASCO CO SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BUT ITS WELL WORTH MENTIONING THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR PELLETS MIXED WITH THE SPRINKLES FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TUESDAY EVENING.

First since I moved here 7 years ago that a forecast discussion brought a remote possibility of snow flakes. Being from up north, I've been wanting to see snow here since 2002. I'm not holding my breath on this, but we'll see.
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01-19-2009, 11:06 AM
Post: #25
Northwest Florida
Yeah saw that this mornin on the news. I like the cold and it would be cool to see snow, even if it is just flurries, in FL.
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01-19-2009, 04:54 PM
Post: #26
Northwest Florida
[COLOR="Sienna"]You would think that living anywhere in Florida
You would not see Snow Much
I live in Bemis - Jackson, Tn.
About 70 miles East - Northeast of Memphis
and we rarely see lots of Snow either
Middle and East Tenn are normally the parts of Tn that gets Snow
Currently - 30 * here at 3 P.M. - C.S.T.
Your blog is Very Informative.[/COLOR]
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01-20-2009, 05:36 PM
Post: #27
Northwest Florida
Nice chilly day today and tonight and tomorrow don't seem much better. Here's NWS Mobile has to say

000
FXUS64 KMOB 202137
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
337 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2009

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE
500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL ADVECT A DEEP LAYER OF
COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER AREA
LATE TONIGHT. RADIATION COOLING WILL DOMINATE THE THERMODYNAMICS
OVERNIGHT WITH AIR BEING VERY STILL OVER THE SURFACE. LOCAL HARD
FREEZE CRITERIA CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN 26F FOR 5 OR MORE HOURS BE
MET OVER MOST OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA BUT WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE HARD FREEZE WARNING. THE NEW
CALCULATION CYCLE SHOWS DURATION WILL NOW BE MET FOR PERRY...STONE
AND GEORGE COUNTIES AS WELL AS COASTAL SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA
COUNTIES. 500 MB TROUGH WILL DAMPEN OUT AS WE HEAD PAST MIDWEEK. AT
THE SURFACE...RIDGE MOVES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER EAST
FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN A HALF INCH
SO RAINFALL NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BD/77

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...NO CHANGES TO NUMBERS. WILL BE
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPSTREAM...GULF MOISTURE MODIFIES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OZARKS REGION ON
FRIDAY. THE NORTHWEST ZONES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEEP LAYER
WATER VAPOR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PUT A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK IN THE FORECAST DUE TO WEAK LIFTING. BROAD
MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWS FRONT TO
MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THAT MOTION INTO THE GULF LATER IN THE DAY. WILL
HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND
SIMILAR CHANCES...BUT FOR RAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS QUICKLY...ALLOWING FRONT TO STALL
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY. WILL BE GETTING BACK INTO A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW (SURFACE AND ALOFT) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
LOW INSTABILITY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER
BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NEXT COOLING TREND WILL BE WITH
THE WEEKEND FRONT. BD/77

&&
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01-22-2009, 01:27 PM
Post: #28
Northwest Florida
Its pretty much been cold everyday this month with the exception of the one day with the brief squall line where temps were around 70. Last two days we didn't even reach 50, and today they are calling for upper 50s, but we hover at 53 at midday.

71 in the forecast tomorrow, I'll believe it when I see it!

AARoads
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01-23-2009, 07:45 AM
Post: #29
Northwest Florida
aaroads Wrote:Its pretty much been cold everyday this month with the exception of the one day with the brief squall line where temps were around 70. Last two days we didn't even reach 50, and today they are calling for upper 50s, but we hover at 53 at midday.

71 in the forecast tomorrow, I'll believe it when I see it!

They are calling for normal temps, but it's been chilly since around the 10th here after a month of 70-80 degree temps. The grass coming back nice and green, not now, 3 consecutive mornings of below freezing took care of that.
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01-25-2009, 12:57 PM
Post: #30
Northwest Florida
Second straight day of murky weather, temps will not hit 60 today either. No rain to boot.

Was reading Jeff Masters' blog and he indicates that a La Nina situation is developing right now. The three-month forecast has reflected this indicating that all of Florida should be below normal precipitationwise, with the peninsula even dryer than the panhandle.

AARoads
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