INVEST 94L headed for the Carolina Coast

[ROLLTIDE]

A low pressure system is located a couple hundred miles southeast of
wilmington north carolina. Although this low is currently
associated with a frontal zone...it has the potential to develop
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone as it moves slowly westward
over the next day or two. High surf and dangerous rip currents
associated with this system will affect portions of the u.s. East
coast for the next several days. Consult statements from local
national weather service forecast offices for additional
information.

[corky]

Make that 94L (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...&TYPE=ssmi)

corky

[Hines' sight 20/20]

wide model range, has nhc weighed in on expected track?

[ROLLTIDE]

Wont41 knhc 241402
dsaat
special tropical disturbance statement
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1000 am edt wed sep 24 2008

satellite images indicate that the low pressure system centered
about 250 miles...400 km...southeast of wilmington north carolina
is acquiring some tropical characteristics. This system could
become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today or tonight as
it moves westward or west-northwestward. The low is accompanied by
winds of up to 65 mph...100 km/hr...to the north and northwest of
the center. Regardless of development this system will bring
strong winds...coastal flooding...high surf...and dangerous rip
currents to portions of the u.s. East coast during the next couple
of days. See statements from local national weather service
forecast offices for additional information and warnings. An air
force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system this afternoon.

[ROLLTIDE]

[Daniel294]

I'd expect this to be subtropical storm Kyle before too much longer.
(or at least have advisories on it, it's looked like STS Kyle for a few hours now)


Boston forecast discussion




Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
*** potential for heavy rainfall Thursday night through Saturday ***


00z models have come into better agreement on the potential for
heavy rainfall across much of the region Thursday night through Sat. All
model guidance points to a large amplitude ridge over the western
Atlantic to combine with an evolving middle level low over the middle Atlantic.
These two features will combine to circulate a deep layer southerly
flow from the tropics northward into southern New England.


The focus for heavy rain Thursday night through Friday night will be an
inverted trough/coastal front extending northward from the middle Atlantic
low into southeast New England. This boundary is also the leading
edge of a tropical airmass with precipitable waters 2 inches and greater
overspreading much of the region early Friday into Sat. The combination
of the inverted trough/coastal front and a tropical airmass will
increase the risk of heavy rainfall. At this time range its
difficult to pinpoint the axis of heaviest rain...but latest
indications are for the greatest risk of heavy rain over CT/Rhode Island and
eastern Massachusetts given proximity to low level boundary.


For Thursday night and Friday...increasing pressure gradient and low level wind
fields will result in windy conditions along the coast...providing a
wind swept rain.


By Saturday...the tropical wave currently near Hispaniola along with
the coastal low over the middle Atlantic coast will lift northward toward
southern New England. Models differ on the timing and intensity of
these features...however another round of heavy rain appears likely
some time Sat. In addition...it will feel tropical here Sat as dew
points surge into the 60s and possibly higher.


By Sunday...the deep layer tropical moisture will likely exit
offshore. However...troffiness aloft and at the surface suggest
showers are possible. Not expecting rain every hour of the day
Sunday...so a washout is not expected.


Monday and Tuesday...
good model agreement that ridging develops across the area providing
dry weather and seasonable temperatures.

[Daniel294]

Subtropical storm tutorial (the differences between tropical and subtropical as written by Jeff Masters)

[ROLLTIDE]

Recon is in this system now and have found 35mph winds

[richardginn]

ROLLTIDE Wrote:Recon is in this system now and have found 35mph winds

oh boy!!!

[aabshire]

So now I have to start watching this since I have children in NC!!!