INVEST 94L headed for the Carolina Coast

[ROLLTIDE]

000
abnt20 knhc 242342
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 pm edt wed sep 24 2008

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

A recently completed air force reconnaissance mission along with
satellite imagery indicate the low pressure system centered about
250 miles southeast of wilmington north carolina has not acquired
tropical characteristics. The data from the aircraft also show
that the strongest winds are well removed to north and west and are
largely unrelated to the small circulation sampled by the aircraft.
This structure is more characteristic of an extratropical weather
system. However...there is still the potential for this system to
become a tropical or subtropical cyclone tonight or thursday as it
drifts westward. Regardless of whether or not this system becomes
a tropical or subtropical cyclone...strong winds...coastal
flooding...high surf...and dangerous rip currents will continue
along portions of the u.s. East coast during the next couple
of days. See statements from local national weather service
forecast offices and high seas forecasts issued by the ocean
prediction center in washington d.c. For additional information and
warnings.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low
pressure just east of the turks and caicos islands...remain
disorganized and the system still lacks a well-defined
surface circulation. Upper-level winds are only marginally
favorable for development of this system as it moves northward over
the next couple of days. There is still the potential for heavy
rainfall and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over
hispaniola...puerto rico...and the virgin islands tonight.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

[ROLLTIDE]

Abnt20 knhc 250545
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 am edt thu sep 25 2008

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

A well-defined surface low pressure system centered about 225 miles
southeast of the south carolina-north carolina border is moving
slowly westward. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little
better organized this morning and this system could develop into a
subtropical or tropical cyclone later today. Regardless of whether
or not this system becomes a subtropical or tropical cyclone...
Strong winds...coastal flooding...high surf...and dangerous rip
currents will continue along portions of the u.s. East coast during
the next couple of days. Outer rainbands are already spreading
onshore the southeastern coast of north carolina...and buoy and
ship reports indicate winds in excess of 50 mph are occurring north
and west of the center. Interests along the u.s. East coast from
the carolinas northward to mid-atlantic region should closely
monitor statements from their local national weather service
forecast offices...and also high seas forecasts issued by the ocean
prediction center in washington d.c. For additional information and
warnings.

Another well-defined low pressure system centered about 140 miles
east-northeast of the turks and caicos islands is moving northward
at 10 to 15 mph. Thunderstorm activity has increased and become
better organized during the past several hours...and upper-level
winds are expected to gradually become more favorable for a
tropical depression to develop during the next day or so. In
addition...the threat for heavy rainfall and associated floods and
mud slides over hispaniola...puerto rico... And the virgin islands
will continue through today.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster stewart

[dkmac]

000
wont41 knhc 250837
dsaat
special tropical disturbance statement
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
435 am edt thu sep 25 2008

a well-defined extratropical low pressure system centered about 225
miles southeast of the south carolina-north carolina border is
moving west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Showers and thunderstorms
are gradually becoming better organized and this system could
develop into a subtropical or tropical cyclone before the system
moves inland along the along the southeastern u.s. Coast on friday.
Regardless of whether or not this system becomes a subtropical or
tropical cyclone... Strong winds...coastal flooding...high surf...
And dangerous rip currents will continue along portions of the
southeastern and mid-atlantic u.s. Coastal regions during the next
couple of days. Outer rainbands continue to spread onshore the
north carolina coast this morning...and buoy and ship reports
indicate winds in excess of 50 mph are occurring more than 100
miles form the center. An air force reserve unit reconnaissance
aircraft scheduled to investigate the system later this morning
will provide better information on its structure and intensity.
Interests along the u.s. East coast from the carolinas northward to
mid-atlantic region should closely monitor statements from their
local national weather service forecast offices...and also high
seas forecasts issued by the ocean prediction center in washington
d.c. For additional information and warnings.

$$
forecaster stewart

[ROLLTIDE]

000
abnt20 knhc 251150
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt thu sep 25 2008

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

A well-defined surface low pressure system centered about 180 miles
southeast of the south carolina-north carolina border is moving
slowly westward. Satellite images and surface observations indicate
that the low is still embedded within a frontal zone and has not
yet acquired tropical characteristics. However there is still a
possibility that this system could develop into a subtropical or
tropical cyclone later today. Regardless of whether or not this
occurs...strong winds...coastal flooding...high surf...and
dangerous rip currents will continue along portions of the u.s.
East coast during the next couple of days. Interests along the u.s.
East coast from south carolina northward to the mid-atlantic region
should closely monitor statements from their local national weather
service forecast offices...and also high seas forecasts issued by
the ocean prediction center for additional information and
warnings.

[Hines' sight 20/20]

center is more visible on sat. Convection wrapping around center. When are the we going to get recon?

[ROLLTIDE]

hines' sight 20/20 Wrote:center is more visible on sat. Convection wrapping around center. When are the we going to get recon?

000
nous42 knhc 241445
weather reconnaissance flights
carcah, national hurricane center, miami, fl.
1045 am edt wed 24 september 2008
subject: Tropical cyclone plan of the day (tcpod)
valid 25/1100z to 26/1100z september 2008
tcpod number.....08-116

i. Atlantic requirements
1.suspect area (off carolina coast)
flight one -- teal 76
a. 25/1200, 1800z
b. Afxxx 02gga invest
c. 25/0945z
d. 32.3n 77.7w
e. 25/1130z to 25/1800z
f. Sfc to 10,000 ft

flight two -- teal 77
a. 26/0000, 0600z
b. Afxxx 03gga cyclone
c. 25/2045z
d. 33.5n 79.0w
e. 25/2300z to 26/0600z
f. Sfc to 10,000 ft

2.suspect area (north of hispaniola)
flight one -- teal 70
a. 25/1800z
b. Afxxx 08ffa invest
c. 25/1600z
d. 24.0n 70.0w
e. 25/1730z to 25/2130z
f. Sfc to 10,000 ft

flight two -- teal 71
a. 26/0600z
b. Afxxx 10ffa cyclone
c. 26/0244z
d. 26.0n 70.0w
e. 26/0500z to 26/0900z
f. Sfc to 10,000 ft

2.outlook for succeeding day: Negative off carolina's. Begin
12-hrly fixes if system two develops. P-3 research missions
every 12 hrs.

3.remarks: The p-3s have been tasked for research missions
departing 25/2000z and 26/0800z.

Ii. Pacific requirements
1. Negative reconnaissance requirements.
2. Succeeding day outlook.....negative.
Kmm

[ROLLTIDE]

992MB 62mph flight level winds found so far

[Daniel294]

ROLLTIDE Wrote:992MB 62mph flight level winds found so far

But is it warm core? That's really what they're looking at.

[Hines' sight 20/20]

what constitutes warm core, I assume it has a beginning temp?

[winter123]

It is rapidly intensifying! However it will run out of time, only like 6 hours until landfall and death. For once i agree with the NHC that this is in fact a non-tropical system. However the day before it was declared i remember the weather channel saying it was going to become a Noreaster. What happened to that??? North Carolina is not the North East.