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Hurricane Kyle
09-27-2008, 06:07 PM
Post: #111
Hurricane Kyle
00
wtnt31 knhc 272032
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hurricane kyle advisory number 9
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112008
500 pm ast sat sep 27 2008
...kyle becomes a hurricane...tropical storm warning issued for a
part of the coast of maine...
A hurricane watch remains in effect for the coast of maine from
stonington eastward to eastport. A hurricane watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.
At 5 pm edt...2100 utc...a tropical storm warning is in effect along
the coast of maine from port clyde eastward to eastport. A tropical
storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the coast of maine
south of port clyde to cape elizabeth...including the portland
area. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
The government of canada has issued a hurricane watch and a tropical
storm warning for southwestern nova scotia. A tropical storm watch
remains in effect for the remainder of nova scotia...and for
southwestern new brunswick.
At 5 pm ast...2100 utc...the government of bermuda has discontinued
the tropical storm warning for bermuda.
Interests elsewhere in new england and the canadian maritimes should
monitor the progress of of kyle.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 pm ast...2100z...the center of hurricane kyle was located
near latitude 34.3 north...longitude 69.7 west or about 315 miles...
505 km...west-northwest of bermuda and about 485 miles...780 km...
South of nantucket massachusetts.
Kyle is moving toward the north near 23 mph...37 km/hr. A gradual
turn toward the north-northeast is expected tonight and sunday. On
the forecast track...the center of kyle is forecast to be near
eastern new england or the canadian maritimes late sunday.
Reports from an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph...120
km/hr...with higher gusts. Kyle is a category one hurricane on the
saffir-simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles...335 km mainly to the east of the center.
The minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 995
mb...29.38 inches.
Tides of 1 to 2 feet above normal...with locally higher levels in
the bay of fundy...and accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves....are expected along the coasts of of new england and the
canadian maritimes in association with kyle.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches
are possible over eastern portions of the new england states...new
brunswick...nova scotia...and prince edward island through monday
morning.
Repeating the 500 pm ast position...34.3 n...69.7 w. Movement
toward...north near 23 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75 mph.
Minimum central pressure...995 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane
center at 800 pm ast followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
pm ast.

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09-27-2008, 06:38 PM
Post: #112
Hurricane Kyle
What an ugly storm. Does anybody else think that he looks more subtropical than tropical right now?
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09-27-2008, 10:39 PM
Post: #113
Hurricane Kyle
Just can not keep my family away from these horrors this year. My oldest daughter, is in Boston. My father is in Ogunquit, ME. Please assure me that neither of them are in the path of yet another hurricane.

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[FONT="Garamond"]I'll worry about it tomorrow, afterall, tomorrow is another day.[/FONT]
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09-27-2008, 10:42 PM
Post: #114
Hurricane Kyle
lovelyweather Wrote:Just can not keep my family away from these horrors this year. My oldest daughter, is in Boston. My father is in Ogunquit, ME. Please assure me that neither of them are in the path of yet another hurricane.
Boston's just going to get wet. Probably not even TS winds. That location in Maine is similar.
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09-28-2008, 05:26 AM
Post: #115
Hurricane Kyle
Wtnt31 knhc 280840
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hurricane kyle advisory number 11
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112008
500 am ast sun sep 28 2008
...kyle heading towards nova scotia and the gulf of maine...

A hurricane watch remains in effect for the coast of maine from
stonington eastward to eastport. A hurricane watch is also in
effect for southwestern nova scotia canada.

A tropical storm warning is in effect along the coast of maine
from port clyde eastward to eastport. A tropical storm warning is
also in effect for southern new brunswick canada and southwestern
nova scotia.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the coast of maine south
of port clyde to cape elizabeth...including the portland area.
A tropical storm watch is also in effect for the remainder of
nova scotia.

Interests elsewhere in new england and the canadian maritimes should
monitor the progress of kyle.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 am ast...0900z...the center of hurricane kyle was located by
an air force reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft to be near
latitude 38.4 north...longitude 69.1 west or about 205 miles...
335 km...south-southeast of nantucket massachusetts and about 405
miles...655 km...south-southwest of yarmouth nova scotia.

Kyle is moving toward the north near 24 mph...39 km/hr. A turn
toward the north-northeast is expected later today. On this
track...the center of kyle is forecast to pass east of cape cod
massachusetts on sunday and approach the coast of maine and the
canadian maritimes sunday night or early monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Kyle is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson
scale. No significant change in strength is forecast during the
next 12 hours...with gradual weakening expected thereafter.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles...335 km...mainly to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb...29.41 inches.

Tides of 1 to 2 feet above normal...with locally higher levels in
the bay of fundy...and accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves....are expected along the coasts of of new england and the
canadian maritimes in association with kyle.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches
are possible over the extreme eastern portions of the new england
states...new brunswick...nova scotia...and prince edward island
through monday morning.

Repeating the 500 am ast position...38.4 n...69.1 w. Movement
toward...north near 24 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75 mph.
Minimum central pressure...996 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane
center at 800 am ast followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am ast.

$$
forecaster stewart

wwww
wtnt41 knhc 280844
hurricane kyle discussion number 11
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112008
500 am edt sun sep 28 2008

kyle emerged from the satellite eclipse period looking rather ugly
from a convection perspective. However...there is enough convection
near and north of the center along with supportive recon wind data
to keep the cyclone designated as a hurricane. The highest 700 mb
flight-level wind speed measured in the northeast quadrant was 80
kt and the maximum sfmr surface wind speed observed was 61 kt.
However...these two wind speed values were not anywhere close to
having been observed in the same general location. Dropsonde wind
profiles also indicate that there is considerable northeastward
tilt between the surface and flight-level centers. The two center
drops revealed light winds at flight-level with up to 52 kt at the
surface along with a pressure value of 1001 mb. Using a 1 mb per 10
kt reduction factor yields a central pressure of approximately 996
mb. Although the 80-kt flight-level wind would normally result in a
surface wind estimate of 73 kt...the severely tilted structure and
degraded convective pattern has instead compelled me to use a blend
of the flight-level and peak sfmr wind speeds to estimate the
maximum surface wind speed to be 65 kt. However...this value could
be adjusted in the post-storm analysis.
The initial motion estimate is 010/21 kt. Recon fix data shows that
kyle remains on track. Water vapor satellite imagery indicates
kyle has been captured by an east-west oriented shortwave trough
and is being lifted northward by deep-layer southerly flow between
a large ridge to the east and a broad trough to the west situated
over the eastern united states. The nhc model guidance remains
tightly clustered on a north-northeastward track toward the gulf or
maine and bay of fundy as kyle is expected to round the northwest
periphery of the large-scale ridge. Therefore...the current
forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track.
Post-eclipse satellite images indicate that kyle is becoming
convectively challenged due to increasing southwesterly vertical
wind shear. Kyle is also about 6-9 hours away from reaching much
cooler waters that north of the gulfstream that is positioned along
40n latitude. These negative factors should result in gradual
weakening of the cyclone...and it is possible that the low- and
upper-level circulations could decouple before kyle reaches any
land areas in about 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and follows the downward trend
predicted by the ships...gfdl...hwrf intensity models.

Forecast positions and max winds

initial 28/0900z 38.4n 69.1w 65 kt
12hr vt 28/1800z 41.5n 68.2w 60 kt
24hr vt 29/0600z 45.2n 66.5w 55 kt...becoming extratropical
36hr vt 29/1800z 48.0n 64.9w 40 kt...extratropical inland
48hr vt 30/0600z 49.5n 64.1w 35 kt...extratropical inland
72hr vt 01/0600z 50.8n 63.3w 30 kt...extratropical inland
96hr vt 02/0600z...absorbed by frontal system

$$
forecaster stewart

wwww

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09-28-2008, 07:39 AM
Post: #116
Hurricane Kyle
lovelyweather Wrote:Just can not keep my family away from these horrors this year. My oldest daughter, is in Boston. My father is in Ogunquit, ME. Please assure me that neither of them are in the path of yet another hurricane.

Well, Rhode Island dodged a bullet in Hurricane Kyle. Thank goodness.

Your daughter in Boston will probably get rain as have had for the past two days but your dad in Ongonquit will probably get more. They are talking about beach erosion and power outages. That will be sad as Ogonquit has a great seacoast. I hope things go well for him. It will probably be like a Nor'easter which I am sure they are used to.

Rose


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09-28-2008, 01:36 PM
Post: #117
Hurricane Kyle
seagull Wrote:Well, Rhode Island dodged a bullet in Hurricane Kyle. Thank goodness.

Your daughter in Boston will probably get rain as have had for the past two days but your dad in Ongonquit will probably get more. They are talking about beach erosion and power outages. That will be sad as Ogonquit has a great seacoast. I hope things go well for him. It will probably be like a Nor'easter which I am sure they are used to.
Nor'easter was on Friday from the remnants of 94L. Yesterday was just rain, and now it's over. Ogonquit probably won't be THAT much different than Boston, since it's close to due north of the city (more or less parallel with the storm track, really)
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09-28-2008, 04:21 PM
Post: #118
Hurricane Kyle
Wtnt31 knhc 282032
bulletin
hurricane kyle advisory number 13
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112008
500 pm ast sun sep 28 2008
...kyle approaching nova scotia...about to lose tropical
characteristics...
A hurricane warning is in effect for the counties of digby...
Yarmouth...and shelburne in southwestern nova scotia canada.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect from stonington maine
eastward to eastport maine...southern new brunswick canada...and
the remainder of southwestern nova scotia.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the remainder of
nova scotia.

Interests elsewhere in the canadian maritimes should monitor the
progress of kyle.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 pm ast...2100z...the center of hurricane kyle was located
near latitude 42.7 north...longitude 66.1 west or about 140 miles...
225 km...south-southwest of the southern tip of nova scotia and
about 180 miles...290 km...southwest of halifax nova scotia.

Kyle is moving toward the north-northeast near 25 mph...41 km/hr...
And this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or
so with some decrease in forward speed. On this track the center
of kyle will move over or near southwestern nova scotia tonight and
over or near new brunswick and prince edward island early monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Kyle is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson
scale. Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and kyle is
expected to lose tropical characteristics tonight or early monday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230
miles...370 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb...29.09 inches.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches
are possible over the extreme eastern portions of maine...new
brunswick...nova scotia...and prince edward island through monday
morning.
Tides of 1 to 2 feet above normal...with locally higher levels in
the bay of fundy...and accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves....are possible along portions of the coasts of of new england
and the canadian maritimes in association with kyle.

Repeating the 500 pm ast position...42.7 n...66.1 w. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 25 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75
mph. Minimum central pressure...985 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane
center at 800 pm ast followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
pm ast.

$$
forecaster pasch


wtnt41 knhc 282032
hurricane kyle discussion number 13
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112008
500 pm edt sun sep 28 2008
kyle is on the verge of becoming extratropical as satellite imagery
show little or no deep convection remaining...a frontal-type band
stretching south-southeastward from the system...and an asymmetric
overall cloud pattern. Earlier today...at about 1600 utc...noaa
data buoy 44011 reported a 10-minute average wind of 51 kt with a
gust to 72 kt at an instrument height of 5 meters. The buoy also
reported 36-foot seas which likely caused some sheltering of the
anemometer...and under-reporting of the maximum wind speed. The
buoy also reported a lowest pressure of 987.1 with winds of 31
kt...suggesting a minimum central pressure of about 984 mb. These
observations indicate that kyle maintained hurricane strength
during the day. However...given the recent deterioration of the
cloud pattern and colder waters...kyle may now just barely be at
hurricane intensity. Global models indicate that there will not be
much of a baroclinic energy source...i.e. Thickness gradient across
the cyclone... Available to the system in a day or two.
Consequently the models show the system dissipating by 72 hours...
And the official forecast follows this guidance.
Initial motion is a slightly faster 030/22. In spite of the recent
acceleration...the dynamical track models indicate that the forward
speed will slow within 12 hours as a short wave trough moves away
from the area and the steering winds weaken. The official track
forecast is just slightly east of the previous one and is very
close to the track model consensus.

Forecast positions and max winds

initial 28/2100z 42.7n 66.1w 65 kt
12hr vt 29/0600z 45.1n 64.7w 55 kt...extratropical inland
24hr vt 29/1800z 47.7n 63.3w 45 kt...extratropical
36hr vt 30/0600z 49.5n 63.0w 35 kt...extratropical inland
48hr vt 30/1800z 50.5n 63.5w 25 kt...extratropical inland
72hr vt 01/1800z...dissipated

$$
forecaster pasch



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09-29-2008, 06:09 AM
Post: #119
Hurricane Kyle
Daniel294 Wrote:Nor'easter was on Friday from the remnants of 94L. Yesterday was just rain, and now it's over. Ogonquit probably won't be THAT much different than Boston, since it's close to due north of the city (more or less parallel with the storm track, really)

It's been raining so long that I don't know what storm is what right now. LOL We are still under a flood watch and the rivers looked pretty high yesterday. We might see sun today????

Rose


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