Hurricane Kyle

[Alex]

corky Wrote:[url=http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2008&MO=09&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=93L.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/data/www/atlantic/tropics/microvap/dmsp&TYPE=ssmi][/url]

Here we go again.

Must we start every thread with "here we go again?" /haha

[dkmac]

Tropical Weather Discussion by Rob Lightbown

Quote:Satellite imagery this morning continues to show showers and thunderstorms from the Lesser Antilles to the eastern Caribbean in association with a tropical wave that is tracking westward. Wind shear analysis this morning indicated that there is up to 30 knots of shear over this system and this is unfavorable for development in the short term. All indications, however, are that environmental conditions will gradually become more favorable over the Caribbean this weekend into next week as this tropical wave progresses westward. The Canadian, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models all are forecasting that a tropical system will form from this tropical wave over the central and western Caribbean next week. So, this is something that will be monitored closely over the weekend and into next week and I will keep you all updated.

An area that is becoming more of interest to me is the area off of the US Southeast coast for next week and its potential impacts along the US Southeast coast. Pretty much all of the global models are latching onto the scenario of a coastal hybrid storm of some sort forming between Tuesday and Thursday of next week and bringing heavy rainfall, gale to storm force winds, very high surf, coastal flooding and beach erosion to coastal areas from Long Island southward to the North and South Carolina coastline and even southward to the coast of Georgia. The timeframe for this looks to be from late Tuesday through potentially as long as next Sunday (Sep. 28). One thing that may keep this system from becoming entirely tropical is the fact that wind shear values may be fairly high and would lend more towards a hybrid storm or a sub-tropical storm. Another possibility is that the tropical wave in the far eastern Caribbean tracks northwestward instead of westward like the GFDL and HWRF models are forecasting. If this happens, then it would add extra energy to the coastal storm off of the US Southeast coast next week and may in fact cause it to translate to a more warm cored tropical storm than anything.

Either way you cut it though, this storm looks to bring heavy rainfall, gale to storm force winds, very high surf, coastal flooding and beach erosion along much of the US East Coast from the middle of next week through next weekend. This is something I will continue to keep a very close eye on and keep you all updated.

The last area I want to discuss is the area off of the coast of Africa where most of the global models are forecasting that a tropical depression will form as early as Sunday or Monday. The latest satellite images are showing a fairly robust tropical disturbance now emerging off of the coast of Africa and this appears to be our candidate for development. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development and we may have a tropical depression form within the next 2 to 3 days or so. I still think that anything that forms out in the eastern Atlantic near Africa will have a low chance of making it all the way across the Atlantic due to the fact that that the troughs of low pressure are getting deeper and stronger as we head into late September and close in on October.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 12 pm EDT Saturday.

[Alex]

Nicole Mitchell on TWC's Tropical Update this morning didn't even mention it. She only mentioned to not let your guard down because things like "the swirl moving off the coast of Africa" are always to be watched. *blah*

[ChessieStorm]

As far as water temps in the gulf. Temps on the surface at least are still well into the 80's, but as far as the depth of those temps is concerned they are cooler, thus less energy. This doesn't mean that a storm can't be sustained for it's trip through the gulf, it just won't be strengthening that quickly.

[SevereWxEnthusiast]

ChessieStorm Wrote:As far as water temps in the gulf. Temps on the surface at least are still well into the 80's, but as far as the depth of those temps is concerned they are cooler, thus less energy. This doesn't mean that a storm can't be sustained for it's trip through the gulf, it just won't be strengthening that quickly.

The questions is..how long does it take for deeper waters to heat back up? /bored

[ROLLTIDE]

Bnt20 knhc 191150
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt fri sep 19 2008

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

disorganized cloudiness and showers over the lesser antilles...the
adjacent caribbean and atlantic waters are associated with a
westward moving tropical wave. Upper-level winds have become less
favorable for development.

elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster avila

[ROLLTIDE]

867
nous42 knhc 191300
weather reconnaissance flights
carcah, national hurricane center, miami, fl.
0900 am edt fri 19 september 2008
subject: Tropical cyclone plan of the day (tcpod)
valid 20/1100z to 21/1100z september 2008
tcpod number.....08-111

i. Atlantic requirements
1. Negative reconnaissance requirements.
2. Outlook for succeeding day.....negative.

11. Pacific requirements
1. Negative reconnaissance requirements.
2. Succeeding day outlook.....negative.
Jwp

[Ednado]

Is this invest not Josephine and if so how many invests have related to her? Ed

[Natronic]

this thing looks a little better organized than yesterday.....not much but a little.....and it definantly bears watching

[nikkinmiss]

can I ask a dumb question? why do they call it an invest?