SW Caribbean Sea

[markieb]

nikkinmiss Wrote:whats a COC and please no smarty pants answers LOL

Center of Circulation

[LSU TIGERS]

Windwatcher Wrote:Isn't the Gulf water too cool right now because of Ike for anything serious to develop?

Looking at the current buoy data, it looks like Ike cooled surface temps in his path by around 2-3 degrees. It is still warm but prolly not warm enough to help a storm intensify very fast.

[Daniel294]

LSU TIGERS Wrote:Looking at the current buoy data, it looks like Ike cooled surface temps in his path by around 2-3 degrees. It is still warm but prolly not warm enough to help a storm intensify very fast.

The BOC could probably strengthen stuff pretty quickly, but the rest of the gulf is too churned up right now. Giant storms will do that.

[ChessieStorm]

winter123 Wrote:This has nothing to do with a front, its convection building from off central america, happens every year at least once. Looks like there might be a weak COC over land and it'll probably move into the EPac and become a 60mph storm that skirts the entirety of the mexico coast.

Did you not see my second post on it? I said nothing about a front. When I first saw the post I thought they were asking about that convection in the western gulf. I didn't realize they were asking for something far south than that.

[richardginn]

Windwatcher Wrote:Isn't the Gulf water too cool right now because of Ike for anything serious to develop?

You might get a Tropical storm to form...

[satx_pilot]

Windwatcher Wrote:Isn't the Gulf water too cool right now because of Ike for anything serious to develop?

Are you saying the gulf is experiencing a "refractory period"? :biggrin:

[Windwatcher]

satx_pilot Wrote:Are you saying the gulf is experiencing a "refractory period"? :biggrin:

Uh-oh. I don't know what that means! *dum*Refractory period?
I just thought that the upwelling of the colder water (during Ike) would hamper development of another huge system---this week anyway! Also, a nice little cool front has moved in.
Am I wrong on that?

[ChessieStorm]

From what I've seen on the buoy information, the waters in the central, southern and eastern Gulf are all in the low to mid 80's.

The coolest water temps are in the area where Ike hit along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines where water temps are in the mid 70's.

Ike didn't really sit that long in the Gulf, while he certainly brought up some cooler waters to the surface, it won't take that long to heat back this time of year.

We're still in the low to mid 90's here and low to mid 70's at night and water temp near me is 86.

Remember in 2005, after Katrina stirred up the waters, you had Rita and Wilma pass through the general vicinity and they were powerful storms in the southern GOM.

[satx_pilot]

Windwatcher Wrote:Uh-oh. I don't know what that means! *dum*Refractory period?

the upwelling of the colder water (during Ike) would hamper development of another huge system---this week anyway!

Yeah.. It's something like that... At least I am told

[Daniel294]