TD Josephine
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09-02-2008, 06:08 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-02-2008 06:19 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #31
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TD Josephine
What is the record for the most named storms in the Atlantic at one time?
:::repeats to self Google is my friend. Google is my friend.::: The answer, in case anyone else was wondering... [SIZE="3"]Four hurricanes have existed simultaneously twice: August 22, 1893 and September 25-27, 1998 with Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl as hurricanes. In 1971 there were 5 tropical cyclones simultaneously, but only 2 were hurricanes.[/SIZE] |
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09-02-2008, 07:08 PM
Post: #32
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TD Josephine
so techinnally we have 4 td Gus ts hanna t.s/hurr ike ts josephine, anymore on the way off africa
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09-02-2008, 08:54 PM
Post: #33
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TD Josephine
Dear Ike,
Come to Maine. It's great this time of year! Come see the fall colors, and have a lobster roll sandwich.mmmmmmm DELISH! Sincerely, All Southeastern/GulfCoastlines (Hoping Ike is a better listener than Gus was.) [SIZE="3"][FONT="Tahoma"]Don't knock the weather, nine-tenths of people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while-Kin Hubbard[/FONT][/SIZE] |
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09-02-2008, 09:09 PM
Post: #34
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TD Josephine
They are already freaking out about this, Ike, and Hanna at work. One coworker said "its always the northerners that bring this down on us". Blah.
AARoads |
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09-02-2008, 09:50 PM
Post: #35
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TD Josephine
1100 pm ast tue sep 02 2008
...josephine moving westward over the far eastern atlantic... At 1100 pm ast...0300z...the center of tropical storm josephine was located near latitude 13.6 north...longitude 26.8 west or about 180 miles...290 km...west-southwest of the southernmost cape verde islands. Josephine is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast on wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches. Rainfall will continue to diminish overnight over the southern cape verde islands as josephine moves away. Repeating the 1100 pm ast position...13.6 n...26.8 w. Movement toward...west near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 500 am ast. $$ forecaster blake ![]() 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008 THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SEEN EARLIER TODAY WITH JOSEPHINE HAS STOPPED TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES STILL SHOW AN ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN WITH LOTS OF BANDING...CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT INDICATED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 45 KT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT. JOSEPHINE COULD INTENSIFY SOME WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS LIGHT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER ALL GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES DIVING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE STORM. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND CAUSE AT LEAST SOME SLOW WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MOST OF THE NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE NO LONGER FORECAST JOSEPHINE TO BE A HURRICANE...A BIG CHANGE FROM EARLIER. MICROWAVE AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE WEST...ABOUT 280/10. WEAK RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE STORM IN A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD FASHION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE NOT AS CLUSTERED AS BEFORE WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND SOUTH OF THE OTHER MODELS WHILE THE HWRF/GFDL REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...JUST A BIT SOUTH OF THE HWRF/GFDL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 13.6N 26.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 14.0N 28.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 14.7N 31.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 15.5N 33.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 16.5N 36.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 18.0N 40.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 44.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 08/0000Z 22.0N 49.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE PA Weather Watcher:omgwtf http://www.hardcoreweather.com/chat.php |
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09-02-2008, 10:17 PM
Post: #36
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TD Josephine
Here are the latest positions as of 11:00PM AST by the NHC
Retired from ASA now for some real flying |
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09-03-2008, 06:12 AM
Post: #37
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TD Josephine
500 AM AST WED SEP 03 2008
...JOSEPHINE A LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.5 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...355 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS JOSEPHINE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.7 N...27.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ![]() 500 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008 ALTHOUGH CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE THIS EVENING...DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE. BASED ON THE IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF JOSEPHINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN INCREASING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING BEYOND THE 36 PERIOD. IN FACT...ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/11...WITHIN THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...CAUSING JOSEPHINE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A BIT OF DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND 36 HOURS WITH ONE CLUSTER CONSISTING OF THE UKMET AND THE GFS TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MORE THAN LIKELY DUE TO A SHALLOW DEPICTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL BLEND...THE TWO HURRICANE MODELS AND THE SUPER ENSEMBLE ARE INDICATING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN A DEEPER LAYER FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO CLUSTER SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 13.7N 27.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 14.2N 29.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 15.0N 31.9W 60 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 15.8N 34.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 16.6N 36.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 41.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 45.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 08/0600Z 22.5N 50.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH PA Weather Watcher:omgwtf http://www.hardcoreweather.com/chat.php |
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09-03-2008, 10:23 AM
Post: #38
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TD Josephine
000
WTNT35 KNHC 031445 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008 1100 AM AST WED SEP 03 2008 ...JOSEPHINE A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.8 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES...485 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.8 N...28.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB/RHOME ![]() |
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09-03-2008, 11:00 AM
Post: #39
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TD Josephine
1100 am edt wed sep 03 2008
satellite imagery indicates that josephine continues to gradually become better organized. Dvorak intensity estimates and a recent quikscat pass indicate the intensity is now near 55 kt. If josephine has aspirations of becoming a hurricane...it needs to do so quickly. Water vapor imagery shows upper-level westerly flow...associated with a trough to the west...is beginning to impinging upon josephine...and the outflow is somewhat restricted to the northwest. Additionally...the presence of arc clouds emanating from the cloud canopy suggest that some dry air might be affecting josephine. Since the shear is forecast to get even stronger and ssts along the forecast track get cooler... Weakening appears likely. The official forecast graciously allows for a little additional strengthening today followed by gradual weakening. The intensity forecast is a little higher than the intensity model consensus so josephine could weaker faster than shown here. With a large ridge to its north...josephine continues to move almost due west at about 9 kt. Since the ridge is expected to build westward...a motion between west and west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected during the entire forecast. Track models are in good agreement and the official forecast is near...but slightly faster than...the dynamical model consensus. Forecast positions and max winds initial 03/1500z 13.8n 28.8w 55 kt 12hr vt 04/0000z 14.1n 30.7w 60 kt 24hr vt 04/1200z 14.8n 33.2w 60 kt 36hr vt 05/0000z 15.4n 35.6w 55 kt 48hr vt 05/1200z 16.0n 38.0w 45 kt 72hr vt 06/1200z 17.5n 43.0w 40 kt 96hr vt 07/1200z 19.5n 47.5w 35 kt 120hr vt 08/1200z 22.0n 52.5w 35 kt $$ forecaster knabb/rhome PA Weather Watcher:omgwtf http://www.hardcoreweather.com/chat.php |
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09-03-2008, 11:17 AM
Post: #40
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TD Josephine
Here are the latest positions as of 11:00AM AST by the NHC
Retired from ASA now for some real flying |
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