TD Josephine

[Ak8s]

What is the record for the most named storms in the Atlantic at one time?






:::repeats to self Google is my friend. Google is my friend.:::

The answer, in case anyone else was wondering...

[SIZE="3"]Four hurricanes have existed simultaneously twice: August 22, 1893 and September 25-27, 1998 with Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl as hurricanes. In 1971 there were 5 tropical cyclones simultaneously, but only 2 were hurricanes.[/SIZE]

[no looking back]

so techinnally we have 4 td Gus ts hanna t.s/hurr ike ts josephine, anymore on the way off africa

[scarletm]

Dear Ike,
Come to Maine. It's great this time of year! Come see the fall colors, and have a lobster roll sandwich.mmmmmmm DELISH!

Sincerely,
All Southeastern/GulfCoastlines
(Hoping Ike is a better listener than Gus was.)

[Alex]

They are already freaking out about this, Ike, and Hanna at work. One coworker said "its always the northerners that bring this down on us". Blah.

[mmru4real]

1100 pm ast tue sep 02 2008

...josephine moving westward over the far eastern atlantic...

At 1100 pm ast...0300z...the center of tropical storm josephine was
located near latitude 13.6 north...longitude 26.8 west or about 180
miles...290 km...west-southwest of the southernmost cape verde
islands.

Josephine is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of
days with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast on wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.

Rainfall will continue to diminish overnight over the southern cape
verde islands as josephine moves away.

Repeating the 1100 pm ast position...13.6 n...26.8 w. Movement
toward...west near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
500 am ast.

$$
forecaster blake

1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SEEN EARLIER TODAY WITH JOSEPHINE HAS
STOPPED TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES STILL SHOW AN ORGANIZED
CLOUD PATTERN WITH LOTS OF BANDING...CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT INDICATED THE MAXIMUM
WINDS WERE AT LEAST 45 KT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45
KT. JOSEPHINE COULD INTENSIFY SOME WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS LIGHT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER ALL GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-TROUGH
CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES DIVING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
STORM. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
CAUSE AT LEAST SOME SLOW WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT MOST OF THE NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE NO LONGER
FORECAST JOSEPHINE TO BE A HURRICANE...A BIG CHANGE FROM EARLIER.

MICROWAVE AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING
A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE WEST...ABOUT 280/10. WEAK RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE STORM IN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FASHION DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE NOT AS
CLUSTERED AS BEFORE WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND SOUTH OF THE OTHER
MODELS WHILE THE HWRF/GFDL REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...JUST A BIT SOUTH OF THE HWRF/GFDL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 13.6N 26.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 14.0N 28.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 14.7N 31.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 15.5N 33.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 16.5N 36.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 18.0N 40.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 44.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 08/0000Z 22.0N 49.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Alabamaboy]

Here are the latest positions as of 11:00PM AST by the NHC

[mmru4real]

500 AM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...JOSEPHINE A LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.5 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES...355 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS JOSEPHINE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.7 N...27.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH



500 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER OF
JOSEPHINE THIS EVENING...DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS EXPANDING OVER
THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE. BASED ON THE IMPROVED
CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 50
KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF
JOSEPHINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN INCREASING SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING BEYOND THE 36
PERIOD. IN FACT...ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND THE FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/11...WITHIN THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHEAST EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAUSING JOSEPHINE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A BIT OF DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND
36 HOURS WITH ONE CLUSTER CONSISTING OF THE UKMET AND THE GFS TO
THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MORE THAN LIKELY DUE TO A SHALLOW
DEPICTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
BLEND...THE TWO HURRICANE MODELS AND THE SUPER ENSEMBLE ARE
INDICATING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN A DEEPER LAYER FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO CLUSTER
SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 13.7N 27.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 14.2N 29.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 15.0N 31.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 15.8N 34.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 16.6N 36.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 41.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 45.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 22.5N 50.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[hurricaneguy]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 031445
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008
1100 AM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...JOSEPHINE A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.8 WEST OR ABOUT 305
MILES...485 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON
FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.8 N...28.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/RHOME

[mmru4real]

1100 am edt wed sep 03 2008

satellite imagery indicates that josephine continues to gradually
become better organized. Dvorak intensity estimates and a recent
quikscat pass indicate the intensity is now near 55 kt. If
josephine has aspirations of becoming a hurricane...it needs to do
so quickly. Water vapor imagery shows upper-level westerly
flow...associated with a trough to the west...is beginning to
impinging upon josephine...and the outflow is somewhat restricted
to the northwest. Additionally...the presence of arc clouds
emanating from the cloud canopy suggest that some dry air might be
affecting josephine. Since the shear is forecast to get even
stronger and ssts along the forecast track get cooler... Weakening
appears likely. The official forecast graciously allows for a
little additional strengthening today followed by gradual
weakening. The intensity forecast is a little higher than the
intensity model consensus so josephine could weaker faster than
shown here.

With a large ridge to its north...josephine continues to move almost
due west at about 9 kt. Since the ridge is expected to build
westward...a motion between west and west-northwest with some
increase in forward speed is expected during the entire forecast.
Track models are in good agreement and the official forecast is
near...but slightly faster than...the dynamical model consensus.

Forecast positions and max winds

initial 03/1500z 13.8n 28.8w 55 kt
12hr vt 04/0000z 14.1n 30.7w 60 kt
24hr vt 04/1200z 14.8n 33.2w 60 kt
36hr vt 05/0000z 15.4n 35.6w 55 kt
48hr vt 05/1200z 16.0n 38.0w 45 kt
72hr vt 06/1200z 17.5n 43.0w 40 kt
96hr vt 07/1200z 19.5n 47.5w 35 kt
120hr vt 08/1200z 22.0n 52.5w 35 kt

$$
forecaster knabb/rhome

[Alabamaboy]

Here are the latest positions as of 11:00AM AST by the NHC