TD Josephine

[Alabamaboy]

Here are the latest positions as of 11:00AM EST by the NHC

[Alabamaboy]

Here are the latest OFFICIAL model runs as of 2/12Z by the NHC

[shellylay81]

Wow, that thing barely got off the coast!

[mmru4real]

[GingerStorm]

Sheesh! The Atlantic is lighting up!

[mmru4real]

500 PM AST TUE SEP 02 2008

...JOSEPHINE STRENGTHENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...205 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...JOSEPHINE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND JOSEPHINE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...13.7 N...25.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A RATHER IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE INFRARED CLOUD TOPS ARE STILL NOT
ALL THAT COLD...WITH SOLID AND FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE BANDING
AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS. LACKING
ACTUAL WIND DATA ANYWHERE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 45 KT. SOME DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND AN EARLIER AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUGGEST THE STORM
COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER...BUT WE CAN WAIT UNTIL THE VARIOUS
ESTIMATES PERHAPS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. NEVER MIND THE
DETAILS...JOSEPHINE APPEARS POISED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE. THE
STORM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER RATHER WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 28 CELSIUS...AND THE WATERS WILL REMAIN THAT
WARM FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE COMPLETE
ABSENCE OF WIND SHEAR...AND STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY IN THE
SHORT TERM. ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE
HWRF FORECAST A HURRICANE...AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS IS AT 65 KT
AT 24 HOURS. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST...
WHICH IS AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALL OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A WEAKENING TREND AT
DAYS 3-5...HOWEVER...IN RESPONSE TO JOSEPHINE PASSING OVER COOLER
SSTS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND
SHEAR ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. GIVEN THIS
GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKER CYCLONE AT FIVE
DAYS...AND EVEN 55 KT IS ABOVE NEARLY ALL OF THE MODEL PREDICTIONS.

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF JOSEPHINE IS USHERING THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 290/12. MODELS ARE
CLUSTERED FAIRLY TIGHTLY AROUND THIS SAME HEADING AND SPEED FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST A FASTER
MOTION THAT EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE EITHER SLOWER OR
FARTHER SOUTH. SINCE THE GFDL AND HWRF SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE INITIAL MOTION...THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE SLIGHTLY
FAVORED...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE
CONSENSUS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.7N 25.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 14.2N 27.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 15.0N 30.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 15.9N 33.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 16.9N 35.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 19.0N 40.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 21.0N 44.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 48.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[ChessieStorm]

[Alabamaboy]

Here are the latest positions as of 5:00PM AST by the NHC

[richardginn]

Interesting that this storm wants to follow almost the same path as Ike does....

[Alabamaboy]

Here are the latest OFFICIAL model runs as of 2/18Z by the NHC