TD Josephine

[mmru4real]

500 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

...TENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.9 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES...270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY...AND MOVE AWAY
FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...12.4 N...23.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



500 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE JUST
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
CURVED BAND FEATURES TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.0/30 KT AND T2.5/35 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/14. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO...AND THEN TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW A LITTLE BIT
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE RIDGE BETWEEN 30N-40 LONGITUDE IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 72-96
HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK IN AND TURN
THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO BUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT
FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A POLEWARD BIAS BY THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO DUE TO A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER...BY
36-48 HOURS...ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR OF 20-30 KT WILL DEVELOP...WHICH COULD DISRUPT OR EVEN HALT
THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS. SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE THE GFS
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE...WHICH SEEMS UNREASONABLE AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE NOTED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS
MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN HIGHER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS DUE TO
THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF 20N LATITUDE OVER WARMER
WATER AND UNDER LESS SHEAR THAN THE SHIPS MODEL IS DEPICTING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 12.4N 23.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 12.9N 25.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 13.6N 28.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 14.5N 31.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 15.4N 33.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 17.5N 38.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 19.0N 41.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 46.0W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[wcmi92]

I think we have Josephine at the next update.

[ROLLTIDE]

[ChessieStorm]

[Tampa_Yankee]

^^^ Say hello to Josephine!

[mmru4real]

1100 am edt tue sep 02 2008

...tenth tropical storm of the season forms in the eastern
atlantic...

At 1100 am edt...1500z...the center of tropical storm josephine was
located near latitude 13.2 north...longitude 25.3 west or about 125
miles...205 km...south-southwest of the southernmost cape verde
islands.

Josephine is moving toward the west near 15 mph...24 km/hr. A
general west-northwestward motion at about the same forward speed
is forecast during the next couple of days. On this
track...josephine will continue to pass just south of the cape
verde islands today and tonight...and over the open waters of the
eastern tropical atlantic on wednesday and thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days...and josephine could be near hurricane strength on wednesday
or thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible over the southern
cape verde islands today.

Repeating the 1100 am edt position...13.2 n...25.3 w. Movement
toward...west near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
500 pm edt.

$$
forecaster knabb

1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN THE CYCLONE'S
ORGANIZATION...WITH VERY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND EVEN A
DECEPTIVE CENTRAL FEATURE DISGUISED AS AN EYE. THE CONVECTIVE TOPS
ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD IN THE INFRARED...BUT DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM...THE TENTH OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON.
JOSEPHINE IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 28
CELSIUS...AND THE WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN AT
LEAST THAT WARM FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SHEAR IS
ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT OVER THE CYCLONE...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING
SEEMS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM...AND COULD BE RAPID GIVEN THE
INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND THAT THE SHIPS-BASED RI INDEX GIVES A
50% CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...JOSEPHINE WILL TRAVERSE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATERS...AND DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY
INCREASE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN THOUGH ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A WEAKENING TREND TO START BY 72 HOURS...TO
MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SIMPLY
SHOWS AN INTENSITY PLATEAU AT 60 KT IN THE LONGER TERM.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS BRISK ALONG A HEADING JUST NORTH OF DUE
WEST...OR 280/13...BUT THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND
AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS. A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM...BUT THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO PROCEED
WESTWARD AND SHIFT TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...THE DEEP-LAYER LOW JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF
JOSEPHINE...WHICH WILL PROBABLY JUST CAUSE A SLIGHT BEND TO THE
RIGHT AND A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION AT DAYS 3-5. MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGE MARKEDLY...WITH
THE GFS TURNING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AND THE GFDL AND HWRF TAKING
IT NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS...WHICH IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 13.2N 25.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.6N 27.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.3N 29.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 15.2N 32.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 16.1N 34.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 18.5N 39.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 20.0N 43.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 21.0N 47.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[ylisa]

I had a great aunt named Josesphine, she lived to 100+ years as was tough as nails... I hope this one has none of her qualities!:frown:

[Tampa_Yankee]

She looks VERY good

[mom2grls72]

Pretty storm. I am amazed at times how different they all look when you really start looking. This one looks very symmetrical with a lovely eye already.

[proger]

winter123 Wrote:Wow it looks so good. Looks like a 1-2 gulf punch. Happens every year.

What are you talking about? It's way too premature to say this thing will get into the gulf and be a 1-2 punch, wow!