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Model's vs. Humans
01-24-2005, 07:58 PM
Post: #1
Model's vs. Humans
This will be a combo of the weather event taking place over the weekend in the Northeast, and a interesting philosophy. In order for one to consider one stupid, tall, dumb, smart, short, ulgy, beautiful, they're needs to be an opposite. Think about it, I can't be smart if everyone has the same intelligence as me. "Now Keith what does this have to do with weather", well models have not comparsion and therefore are not helpful to a degree, I would much rather forecast weather by looking at charts and coming to my own conclusion!! That's why I have a feeling this next well stacked but short amplitude ridge will stay put in the Great Lakes region instead of moving out to sea, due to the lack of push. Resitance will be created and to a lesser extent snow and ice will be break out...most likely from NC upward. The low will track closer enough to the coast that some regions on the coast will pick up a good amount, probably not in LI but I opt for that to be able to change as the week progresses. Do i think it will be a blizzard, no way. The models think that the storm will run on warm advection, i think it will be more of a wave type storm.


And about the secondary system from the Blizzard of 2005, it was formed due to the cold air damming along the east coast in the lower mile of atmosphere. Once the "ghost" storm hit the coast it expolded due to the influx of warm air. In order for a low to deepen at the surface, air must exit in the upper atmosphere more so then air converging at the surface, hence the reason why it bombed (warm air rises). Eventually as the ULL progressed further towards the coast a deformation zone was created and backlash snows came into the tri-state region.
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