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Severe Weather Thread 5/31/08-6/02/08
05-31-2008, 05:39 AM
Post: #1
Severe Weather Thread 5/31/08-6/02/08
Right now things are livening up in Kansas and there is a tornado watch over Ohio and some adjacent areas that everybody is probably following, but I'm temporarily up in the Albany, New York, area and will watch things here, where it could also be a lively morning, per the Albany NWS current forecast discussion:

Quote:A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH
THE MAIN HAZARD OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT LATER
TODAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME BECOMING
SEVERE. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES INCLUDING NORTHWEST
CONNECTICUT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EAST AROUND 30 MPH.

It was 68 degrees here at 4 a.m., which is unusual up here, even in late May, but the dewpoint is still hovering not far above 50 degrees. However, the south wind is picking up from 10 mph at 4 a.m. to the current 18, gusting to 29 mph at the Albany County Airport (unfortunately, I don't have a weather station yet). I'm used to Alabama and Mississippi weather and it's weird to have that southern flow going and not getting all muggy -- there is still some time, though. Will see how it turns out.

Barb

"I have a sore throat."
2000 BC : "eat this root"
1200 AD : "That root is heathen, say this prayer."
1500 AD : "That prayer is superstition, drink this elixir."
1800 AD : "That elixir is snake oil, Take this pill."
1900 AD : "That pill is ineffective, Take this antibiotic."
2000 AD : "That antibiotic is artificial, Here why dont you eat this root."
— A short history of medicine, posted at http://www.gdargaud.net/Humor/QuotesScience.html
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05-31-2008, 07:59 AM
Post: #2
Severe Weather Thread 5/31/08-6/02/08
Quote:DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN KS AND NRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS EWD
THROUGH THE OH /TN VLYS INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. BROAD
TROUGH NOW OVER THE GRT LKS WILL CONTINUE E INTO WRN QUEBEC/NY/PA AS
UPSTREAM RIDGE NOW OVER THE RCKYS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUILDS E INTO
THE HI PLNS...AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROUND BASE OF LOW OFF THE
WA CST.

AT THE SFC...LOW ASSOCD WITH THE GRT LKS SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NEAR
GEORGIAN BAY THIS MORNING TO NRN VT THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING E
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY SUNDAY. PRIMARY COLD FRONT TRAILING
SW FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE E/SE ACROSS NY/PA AND NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY...WHILE WRN END BECOMES MORE OR LESS STATIONARY FROM WRN KY
INTO NRN PARTS OF AR AND OK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LEE TROUGH E OF
THE APLCNS AND VARIOUS CONFLUENCE AXES WILL BE ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF
LOW-LVL UPLIFT.

...NEW ENGLAND SW TO CAROLINAS/KY/TN...
A SERIES OF WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE
E/ESE ACROSS THE ERN OH VLY AND THE NRN APLCNS THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. GIVEN MODERATELY TO STRONGLY-SHEARED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
REGION...EPISODIC EMBEDDED ROTATING STRUCTURES MAY POSE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS AND/OR BRIEF TORNADOES.

CLOUD DEBRIS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORM CLUSTERS WILL
INHIBIT SFC HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
NORTHEAST. BUT EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING...COMBINATION OF STRONG
WIND FIELD...MODERATE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR RENEWED STORM
DEVELOPMENT/SVR WEATHER BY EARLY AFTN.

SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES ATTM ALONG TWO AXES...ONE FROM OH INTO
WRN PA/WRN NY...AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC CSTL PLN. MID
60S F SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD REACH ERN PA/SERN NY BY EARLY
AFTN...WITH UPR 60S FROM MD/DE SWD. IN ADDITION TO EXPECTED
REDEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT STORM CLUSTERS...OTHER STORMS LIKELY WILL
FORM ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM SE NY INTO VA AND THE CAROLINAS...AND
ALONG/AHEAD OF DIFFUSE COLD FRONT OVER THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS FROM WRN NY SW INTO WV/KY.

60+ KT DIFFLUENT WLY 500 MB FLOW ATOP 30+ KT WSWLY LOW-LVL FLOW WILL
YIELD AMPLE DEEP SHEAR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS/BOWS...ESPECIALLY WITH
STORMS ALONG LEE TROUGH IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SOMEWHAT WEAKER
SHEAR WILL EXIST FARTHER S. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DMGG WINDS/HAIL...TERRAIN-INDUCED BACKING OF THE LOW-LVL FLOW ACROSS
SE NY...AND SLIGHTLY-BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
IN WRN NEW ENGLAND...COULD ENHANCE LOW-LVL STORM ROTATION AND THE
RISK OF TORNADOES IN THOSE AREAS.

TSTMS SHOULD PEAK AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING IN ALL EXCEPT
PARTS OF SRN VA/CNTRL-ERN CAROLINAS...WHERE LINGERING CELLS MAY
REMAIN STG/SVR WELL INTO THE EVENING.

...SRN-CNTRL PLNS INTO OZARKS/LWR OH AND TN VLYS...
PERSISTENT WAA/RICH MOISTURE INFLOW ON WRN END OF STALLING FRONT HAS
SUPPORTED OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD SVR STORMS OVER SRN KS/FAR
NRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL PERSIST IN SOME FORM OR ANOTHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BOTH
EWD ALONG FRONT INTO THE WRN KY/TN...AND NW INTO WRN/CNTRL KS.

GIVEN QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW...CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...AND MDT MID-LVL FLOW ON SRN EDGE OF THE
WLYS...THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC BOUTS OF SVR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS SBCAPE INCREASES TO 3000 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG
WIND COULD ALSO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IF STORM COLD POOLS CONSOLIDATE
AND LEAD TO ENHANCED E/SE MCS MOTION. IN ADDITION...A LOCALIZED
THREAT FOR TORNADOES COULD ALSO EVOLVE. SUCH A THREAT WOULD BE
GREATEST ON WRN/SRN FRINGE OF THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...AS VERY MOIST SWLY LLJ IMPINGES ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SEGMENTS THAT BECOME STATIONARY AND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
WNWLY MEAN FLOW.

...UPR MS VLY...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SE ON WRN SIDE OF DEPARTING LARGER SCALE
TROUGH MAY SUPPORT DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS OVER MN SEWD INTO
NRN/ERN IA AND NWRN IL. COLD MID-LVL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
35-40 KT NWLY MID-LVL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SVR STORMS
WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WINDS...SIMILAR TO THE ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED
PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY YESTERDAY.

...CNTRL HI PLNS TO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
SCTD STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE TODAY IN AREA OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
IN ERN CO/SW NEB N OF STALLED FRONT. GIVEN 40S F SFC DEWPOINTS AND
BAND OF 40 KT WLY FLOW ALOFT...A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME
SUSTAINED/POSSIBLY ROTATE AND POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD TORNADO.

ELSEWHERE...LEAD IMPULSE MOVING NEWD AROUND SE SIDE OF OFFSHORE LOW
MAY ENHANCE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF ID AND NE ORE LATER
TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE MAY TRAIN AND YIELD LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY CLOUD-LAYER FLOW. OTHER
SCTD...POTENTIALLY STRONG DIURNAL STORMS COULD OCCUR EWD INTO SRN MT
AND NRN WY.

[Image: day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif]
[Image: day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif]
[Image: day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif]
[Image: day1otlk_1300.gif]

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05-31-2008, 11:36 AM
Post: #3
Severe Weather Thread 5/31/08-6/02/08
Very odd seeing a moderate risk that far east... used to seeing them in the plains.
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05-31-2008, 01:09 PM (This post was last modified: 05-31-2008 01:14 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #4
Severe Weather Thread 5/31/08-6/02/08
Day 1 Convective Outlook
Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
1125 Am Cdt Sat May 31 2008

Valid 311630z - 011200z

...there Is A Mdt Risk Of Svr Tstms From Portions Of Ern Wv/srn Pa
Into Nj/va/de/md...

...there Is A Mdt Risk Of Svr Tstms Over Parts Of Nrn Ok/srn Ks...

...there Is A Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms From The Srn Plains/tn Valley
Towards The Atlantic Seaboard...

...there Is A Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms Across Part Of The Nrn Ms River
Valley...

...central Appalachians To The Mid Atlantic Coast...
Height Falls And Strongest Mid Level Jet Associated With Progressive
Shortwave Trough Moving Into The Northeast Will Overspread The
Central Appalachians And The Mid Atlantic/chesapeake Regions Today.
Early Day Clouds/convection Has Hindered Destabilization Across A
Large Part Of Ny And Wrn/central Pa Late This Morning...but Moderate
Mlcape Axis Is Already Becoming Established Nnewd Out Of Central Va
At 16z. This Should Continue Building/expanding Up The Mid Atlantic
Coast/rest Of Va As Heating And Further Moistening Of The Boundary
Layer Occurs. Strengthening Large Scale Ascent Will Enhance
Thunderstorm Coverage Across This Region Through The Early To Mid
Evening When Most Storms Will Begin Moving Offshore. Shear Profiles
And Low Level Thermodynamic Profiles Will Favor Storm-scale
Organization Into Lines And Supercells...producing A Myriad Of
Severe Threats Including Potential For Widespread Damaging Winds And
A Few Tornadoes.

...northeast...
Severe Threat Is More Problematic Into The Lower Great Lakes Ewd
Into The Wrn New England Given Amount Of Clouds/stabilization In
Place Late This Morning. However...strong Height Falls/deep Ascent
Ahead Of Approaching Shortwave Trough Will Maintain A Threat Of Deep
Moist Convection Through The Day. In Addition...shear Will Be More
Than Adequate For Organization Into Lines/clusters And Even A Few
Supercells...particularly Into The Hudson River Valley Where
Stronger Sly Low Level Flow Will Be Found. Therefore...breaks In
Clouds Over Wrn Ny At 16z Ahead Of Upper Trough And Associated
Surface Cold Front May Be Indicative Of Sufficient Instability
Developing For Threat Of Severe Storms. However...confidence Is
Lower Than Areas Immediately South Over Va/mid Atlantic.

...srn Ks/nrn Ok Towards The Mid South Into Tn/ky...
Complex Mcs...composed Of Several Strong Clusters/lines...over Nern
Ok/sern Ks/swrn Mo Has Been Aided By Llj Through Much Of The
Morning. However...llj Will Diminish And Re-focus Into Wrn Ok/swrn
Ks Through The Day Which Will Again Intensify Later Tonight Into Srn
Ks. Although Ongoing Activity Will Lose Llj Focus...activity Will
Become Fed By A Very Unstable Air Mass With Steep Low/mid Level
Lapse Rates. This Should Tend To Sustain Intense Cores/mcs Esewd
This Afternoon And Maintain Threats Of Very Large Hail And Isolated
Damaging Winds. Not Out Of The Question This Activity Could Evolve
Into A Bowing Mcs Moving Across Nrn Ar/far Srn Mo Given Moderate
Wnwly Flow Aloft Evident On Area Vwps. However...lack Of Well
Defined Surface Boundary And Large Scale Ascent Tends To Lower
Confidence In This Scenario.

Additionally...isolated Thunderstorms Should Develop And Possibly
Become Severe As Air Mass Destabilizes Over Portions Of Tn/ky Where
35-45 Kt Effective Shear Will Remain In Place.

Farther West...cap Will Weaken Along Surface Low/front Near The
Ok/ks Border And Isolated Severe/supercells Remain Possible Later
Today Over This Area. Activity Will Become More Widespread/intense
And Evolve Into Another Severe Mcs Later Tonight Along Nose Of Llj
With Very Large Hail Once Again Possible Through Early Sunday
Morning.

...nrn Ms River Valley...
Stalled Surface Front Will Persist Over Central Mn Into Srn Wi Today
With Warm...relatively Moist Boundary Layer To Its West. Given Very
Cold Air Aloft And Weak Large Scale Ascent Overspreading The Region
As Secondary Shortwave Trough Develops Sewd Into Nrn Mn...low-topped
Storms Are Expected Later Today. Instability Will Be Marginal...but
Still Sufficient For Another Round Of Strong/severe Thunderstorms
Over This Region. Large Hail Will Be Primary Severe Threat.

...central High Plains...
Low Level Flow Will Become Increasingly Upslope Into The Central
High Plains This Afternoon...although Moisture Return Will Be
Retarded By Surface Low/front Lingering Over Nwrn Ok/srn Ks.
Still...very Steep Lapse Rates And Weak Instability Will Develop
During The Day And Support High-based Thunderstorms Over Higher
Terrain/near Lee Trough. This Activity Will Occur Within Sufficient
Shear For Lp-supercells...although Limited Instability/moisture
Should Keep Any Ensuing Severe Threat Marginal/isolated Through The
Early Evening.

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05-31-2008, 01:14 PM
Post: #5
Severe Weather Thread 5/31/08-6/02/08
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 402...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

CORRECTED FOR OMITTED COUNTIES IN EASTERN MD

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
FAR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST OHIO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1020 AM UNTIL
500 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ATHENS
OHIO TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAKEHURST NEW JERSEY. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 399...WW 400...WW 401...

DISCUSSION...ACTIVE AFTERNOON ON TAP FOR THIS REGION AS STRONG FLOW
ALOFT OVERSPREADS A WARM/HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF EFFECTIVE
OUTFLOW/CLOUDS NOW PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF PA. SEVERE THREAT WILL
EVOLVE IN MULTIPLE MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW
ECHOES. THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES TODAY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
[Image: ww0402_radar.gif]

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05-31-2008, 02:20 PM
Post: #6
Severe Weather Thread 5/31/08-6/02/08
[Image: ww0403_radar.gif]

DISCUSSION...HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS REGION THIS EVENING AS TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. AIR MASS IS VERY
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING INTO FAR NRN VA/NERN
MD/DE WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG. GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL ORGANIZE INTO LINES/SUPERCELLS WITH
THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
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05-31-2008, 03:53 PM
Post: #7
Severe Weather Thread 5/31/08-6/02/08
Bulletin - Eas Activation Requested
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wakefield Va
448 Pm Edt Sat May 31 2008
The National Weather Service In Wakefield Has Issued A
* Tornado Warning For...
East Central Hanover County In Central Virginia...
South Central Essex County In East Central Virginia...
West Central King And Queen County In East Central Virginia...
Northwestern King William County In East Central Virginia...
South Central Caroline County In North Central Virginia...
* Until 530 Pm Edt
* At 445 Pm Edt...national Weather Service Doppler Radar Indicated A
Severe Thunderstorm Capable Of Producing A Tornado Near
Mangohick...or 12 Miles Northeast Of Ashland...moving East At 39
Mph.
* The Tornado Will Be Near...
Beulahville And 9 Miles North Of Manquin By 455 Pm Edt...
Aylett By 500 Pm Edt...
Saint Stephens Church By 505 Pm Edt...

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05-31-2008, 04:11 PM
Post: #8
Severe Weather Thread 5/31/08-6/02/08
Bulletin - Eas Activation Requested
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wakefield Va
510 Pm Edt Sat May 31 2008
The National Weather Service In Wakefield Has Issued A
* Tornado Warning For...
Central King And Queen County In East Central Virginia...
* Until 545 Pm Edt
* At 508 Pm Edt...national Weather Service Doppler Radar Indicated A
Severe Thunderstorm Capable Of Producing A Tornado Near
Stevensville...or Near King William...moving East At 40 Mph.
* The Tornado Will Be Near...
King And Queen Courthouse By 515 Pm Edt...
Little Plymouth By 525 Pm Edt...

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05-31-2008, 04:28 PM
Post: #9
Severe Weather Thread 5/31/08-6/02/08
Evere Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield Va
521 Pm Edt Sat May 31 2008
Vac097-312145-
/o.con.kakq.to.w.0047.000000t0000z-080531t2145z/
King And Queen Va-
521 Pm Edt Sat May 31 2008
...a Tornado Warning Remains In Effect Until 545 Pm Edt For Central
King And Queen County...
At 521 Pm Edt...national Weather Service Doppler Radar Continued To
Indicate A Tornado. This Tornado Was Located Near Dragonville...or
Near King And Queen Courthouse...moving East At 39 Mph.
If In Mobile Homes Or Vehicles...evacuate Them And Get Inside A
Substantial Shelter. If No Shelter Is Available...lie Flat In The
Nearest Ditch Or Other Low Spot And Cover Your Head With Your Hands.

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05-31-2008, 04:58 PM (This post was last modified: 05-31-2008 05:19 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #10
Severe Weather Thread 5/31/08-6/02/08
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS / NRN AND WRN OK / PARTS OF NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 312048Z - 312245Z

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS POSSIBLE BY 2230Z. A WW WOULD BE NEEDED
ONCE INITIATION BECOMES MORE LIKELY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CAPPED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS N CENTRAL OK
AND SRN KS ALONG AND NORTH OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS
MORNING/S MCS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON STRONG DIABATIC HEATING ALONG AND S OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND THIS IS COMBINING WITH A FOCUSED AREA OF CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
N CENTRAL OK CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500 J/KG. LMN
PROFILER SHOWS 40 KTS AROUND 500 MB...AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
AIDING IN OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR TO BE THE INITIAL THREAT/S WITH STORMS...BUT AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS 850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN EARLY THIS EVENING.

FURTHER SW...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING ASSOCIATED APPARENTLY WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING EWD FROM ERN NM/TX SOUTH PLAINS. A MORE CONDITIONAL THREAT
FOR INITIATION APPEARS TO EXIST SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
WRN OK SWWD TOWARDS CDS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN ISOLATE
STORM OR TWO COULD INITIATE WITHIN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL
SURFACE T/TDS APPEAR TOO HIGH COMPARED TO SURFACE OBS. WITH THAT
SAID...IF A STORM FORMS...MODERATE DEEP FLOW FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT A
WIND/HAIL THREAT IF THE INITIALLY HIGH-BASED STORMS.

..SMITH.. 05/31/2008


ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

34319962 34260010 34510045 35510007 36319982 36769987
37179959 37499914 37509793 37279697 37039646 36489632
35999664 35649715 35459761 35249842 34999878 34519928

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