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Severe Weather 4/30/2008 - 5/2/2008
05-01-2008, 10:38 AM
Post: #11
Severe Weather 4/30/2008 - 5/2/2008
Kinematic profiles are looking rather favorable this morning for severe storms all the way down into the Red River Valley. The threat there will be more conditional given the increased amount of capping present. However, with MLCAPE profiles of 2000+ over SC/SE KS and N OK this evening.....with a dryline mixing eastward into a very moist boundary layer, some supercell potential is definitely there as low level winds will crank up once again this evening. Hodograph curvature will become increasingly favorable for some tornadic potential in the evening hours especially from Wichita - Tulsa - Pittsburg, KS. This is a relatively concentrated area, but the most likely area to deal with the potential for significant hail and/or tornadic development. Anything south of the region along the Red River could be significant if the capping can be overcome.

The threat will likely be higher over the mid south on Friday with supercells and tornadoes continuing. A powerful squall line will likely evolve across ERN AR/WRN TN into the Ohio Valley.

The threat looks more conditional on Saturday for the LWR MS/TN Valley to the Gulf Coastal plain as wind profiles will be generally weakening. Instability will likely fuel some strong updraft structures and allow for at least some hail potential. If an MCS or two can become established with cold pool development.....wind damage could become a good bet as well.
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05-01-2008, 03:41 PM
Post: #12
Severe Weather 4/30/2008 - 5/2/2008
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO SE SD/SW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 012028Z - 012200Z

IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME.

A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES IN A NARROW TONGUE
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...INTO THE
VICINITY OF A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR NORFOLK NEB. THIS IS NEARLY
COINCIDENT WITH A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF AN
INITIAL WEAK COOL SURGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
AND...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER PARCELS IS BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WHERE DEEPENING CUMULUS/TOWERING CU ARE ALREADY EVIDENT.

ALTHOUGH STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTH OF REGION...AND FORCING WITH THE NEXT
IMPULSE MAY NOT INCREASE UNTIL NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER 02/00Z...THE
INITIATION OF STORMS BENEATH DIFLUENT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 01/22-23Z. AS THIS OCCURS...MIXED
LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER NEAR THE POLAR JET AXIS...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 05/01/2008

[Image: mcd0756.gif]

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05-01-2008, 03:42 PM
Post: #13
Severe Weather 4/30/2008 - 5/2/2008
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO SE SD/SW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 012028Z - 012200Z

IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME.

A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES IN A NARROW TONGUE
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...INTO THE
VICINITY OF A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR NORFOLK NEB. THIS IS NEARLY
COINCIDENT WITH A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF AN
INITIAL WEAK COOL SURGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
AND...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER PARCELS IS BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WHERE DEEPENING CUMULUS/TOWERING CU ARE ALREADY EVIDENT.

ALTHOUGH STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTH OF REGION...AND FORCING WITH THE NEXT
IMPULSE MAY NOT INCREASE UNTIL NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER 02/00Z...THE
INITIATION OF STORMS BENEATH DIFLUENT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 01/22-23Z. AS THIS OCCURS...MIXED
LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER NEAR THE POLAR JET AXIS...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

[Image: mcd0756.gif]

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05-01-2008, 03:43 PM
Post: #14
Severe Weather 4/30/2008 - 5/2/2008
[Image: day1otlk_2000.gif]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND INTO
FAR W CENTRAL MO AND A SMALL PORTION OF NERN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY SWD INTO
ERN OK/WRN AR...

...NERN KS/WRN MO SWD INTO OK/WRN AR...
DRYLINE CONTINUES SHIFTING EWD ACROSS OK/KS...WHILE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES SEWD ACROSS NRN AND WRN KS. WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE REMAINS MARGINALLY MOIST...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S FROM ERN KS SWD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN OK.

DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT PERSIST -- WITH SUBSTANTIAL
CAPE INDICATED ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CAP. BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEATING/MIXING HAS HELPED TO WEAKEN THE LOW-LEVEL CAP -- PER 20Z
NORMAN OK RAOB -- WHICH COMBINED WITH NEW 12Z HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF OK. MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THOUGH IS STILL ANTICIPATED FURTHER N -- FROM
NRN OK NEWD ACROSS ERN KS -- AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT VEERED/SSWLY ACROSS MOST
OF THE WARM SECTOR ATTM...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BACK FROM CENTRAL OK NWD INTO ERN KS AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
SEWD-MOVING FRONT OVER WRN OK THIS EVENING. RESULTING INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH GREATER SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR AS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD THEREFORE MAXIMIZE LATER THIS EVENING FROM ERN KS/NERN
OK INTO WRN MO/NWRN AR.

...MID MO VALLEY REGION...
SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A NARROW MOIST AXIS ARE INDICATED NEAR AND
JUST E OF THE ERN NEB/WRN IA BORDER ATTM...WITH LIMITED
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ONGOING E OF THE NERN NEB SURFACE LOW. THIS
LOW FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD OCCLUDE WITH TIME AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS SEWD. NEAR AND JUST E
OF THE OCCLUSION...SELY FLOW AND PERSISTENT MOIST AXIS COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE W WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS -- FROM SERN SD SSEWD INTO ERN
NEB/WRN IA. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE
GUSTS...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES -- MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING.

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05-01-2008, 03:53 PM
Post: #15
Severe Weather 4/30/2008 - 5/2/2008
[Image: 008152406.png]

[Image: stormlabski8.jpg]
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05-01-2008, 04:05 PM
Post: #16
Severe Weather 4/30/2008 - 5/2/2008
[attach]8996[/attach]
Mesoscale Discussion 0757
Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
0402 Pm Cdt Thu May 01 2008

Areas Affected...cntrl Ok

Concerning...severe Potential...watch Possible

Valid 012102z - 012230z

Tstm Initiation Remains Uncertain Through The Next Couple Of Hours
Along Dryline Which Has Mixed To Near The I-35 Corridor. Supercells
Would Likely Occur...predicated On Tstm Development. The Area Will
Be Monitored For A Possible Ww.

20z Oun Raob Has Shown A Substantial Weakening Of The Capping
Inversion Depicted On The Earlier 12z Raob. Vis Satellite Imagery
Over The Past Hour Or So Has Shown Attempts At Cu Development Along
Dry Line...primarily Over S-cntrl Ok In Grady/stephens Counties.
Majority Of Latest Model Guidance Suggest Tstm Development Is
Unlikely Through 00z...as Convergence Along The Dryline And
Large-scale Ascent Appears Modest. Still...12z Hi-res Wrf-nmm
Depicts Isolated Development Invof Current Cu Area Around 21z. If
This Were To Indeed Occur...moderate To Strong Instability With
Mlcapes Of 2000 To 3000 J/kg And Effective Shear Around 40 Kts Would
Be Supportive Of Supercells With Large Hail And Damaging Winds As
The Primary Threats. A More Probable Scenario Is For Tstm
Development After 00z Invof N-cntrl Ok As Deeper Ascent Spreads Ewd
From Sern Co/swrn Ks And Low-level Flow Backs/strengthens In
Response To Approaching Wave.

..grams.. 05/01/2008
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05-01-2008, 04:38 PM
Post: #17
Severe Weather 4/30/2008 - 5/2/2008
[attach]8997[/attach]
Urgent - Immediate Broadcast Requested
Tornado Watch Number 243
Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
435 Pm Cdt Thu May 1 2008

The Nws Storm Prediction Center Has Issued A
Tornado Watch For Portions Of

Parts Of Northwest Iowa
Parts Of Southwestern Minnesota
Large Part Of Southeastern South Dakota

Effective This Thursday Afternoon And Evening From 435 Pm Until
1100 Pm Cdt.

Tornadoes...hail To 2 Inches In Diameter...thunderstorm Wind
Gusts To 70 Mph...and Dangerous Lightning Are Possible In These
Areas.

The Tornado Watch Area Is Approximately Along And 60 Statute
Miles North And South Of A Line From 45 Miles West Southwest Of
Huron South Dakota To 35 Miles East Southeast Of Spencer Iowa.
For A Complete Depiction Of The Watch See The Associated Watch
Outline Update (wous64 Kwns Wou3).

Remember...a Tornado Watch Means Conditions Are Favorable For
Tornadoes And Severe Thunderstorms In And Close To The Watch
Area. Persons In These Areas Should Be On The Lookout For
Threatening Weather Conditions And Listen For Later Statements
And Possible Warnings.

Discussion...strong Sely Flow E Of Deep Sfc Low Just S Of
Ykn...resulting In An Increasingly Moist/unstable Air Mass Moving
Nwwd Thru Watch Area. Thunderstorms Will Develop Vicinity Cold
Front That Is Moving Ewd Thru Ern Neb And Move Nwd Thru The Watch
Area. Strong Veering Shear Profiles Support Supercells Including
Tornadoes And Large Hail.
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05-01-2008, 06:17 PM
Post: #18
Severe Weather 4/30/2008 - 5/2/2008
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTAL IOWA
LARGE PART OF EASTERN KANSAS
LARGE PART OF WESTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 540 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH OF CHANUTE
KANSAS TO 50 MILES NORTH OF DES MOINES IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 243...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN NUMBER
AND INTENSITY ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE WHERE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
EXISTS. WITH STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE AND APPROACH OF
MID LEVEL WIND MAX TORNADIC SUPERCELLS INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL ARE
LIKELY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.

[Image: ww0244_radar.gif]

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05-01-2008, 06:18 PM
Post: #19
Severe Weather 4/30/2008 - 5/2/2008
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 245
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 615 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ARDMORE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 243...WW 244...

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS E OF DRY LINE VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND
WEAKLY CAPPED. STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP VICINITY OF DRY LINE AS
STRONG WIND MAX ROTATES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND ENHANCES BOTH
SHEAR AND ASCENT. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADIC POTENTIAL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
[Image: ww0245_radar.gif]

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05-01-2008, 06:28 PM
Post: #20
Severe Weather 4/30/2008 - 5/2/2008
pretty good feed from Kory Hartman

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/str...tman&uid=1

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