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Weekend Fun Day 2
01-18-2005, 06:54 AM
Post: #1
Weekend Fun Day 2
ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL FORM
SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID ATLC STATES SUNDAY. VARIOUS SOLNS TAKE VARIOUS
DIRECTIONS WITH IT. RIGHT NOW...CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DATA SAYS
WE'LL BE BRUSHED AS SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. NEW 00Z ECMWF 144H IS JUST NUTS...AND IF THAT WERE TO PAN
OUT...TAKE COVER! STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.

From the NWS
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01-18-2005, 02:34 PM
Post: #2
Weekend Fun Day 2
Latest forecast discussion...



.LONG TERM (FRI THROUGH TUE)...
SOME CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED COLD FRI-FRI
NIGHT...THEN THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING.

LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW MOVES OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND REDEVLOPS OFF
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STILL QUITE A FEW POSSIBILITIES WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AFTER LOOKING AT 18/12Z ECMWF...WHICH IS NOW
FARTHER N THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. GFS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH
TRACK...BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD BE COLDER/SNOW SOLUTION EVEN FOR COASTAL LOCALES. 00Z RUN WASN'T AS FAR NORTH...BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO PUT PRECIP TYPE RIGHT NEAR COAST...I.E. LONG ISLAND...INTO QUESTION. 12Z EVEN FURTHER NORTH...WILL NOT JUMP ON
ANY MODEL'S BANDWAGON JUST YET...AND WILL LEAVE POPS IN CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW PER COLLAB WITH OTHER WFOS. WILL PLAY IS ALL SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING...WITH THE IDEA THAT ANYTHING FURTHER NORTH THROWS A MAJOR WRENCH INTO THAT CONCEPT. HWOOKX WAS UPDATED EARLIER TODAY TO ADD A MENTION OF THIS...AND WILL NOT CHANGE FOR NOW.

SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUTTA HERE SUN NIGHT... THEN BACK TO AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF QUIET WX.
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01-18-2005, 03:05 PM
Post: #3
Weekend Fun Day 2
Looks like you 2 are finally going to get some
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01-18-2005, 03:11 PM
Post: #4
Weekend Fun Day 2
ROLLTIDE Wrote:Looks like you 2 are finally going to get some

Problem is, only one of us wants it...
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01-18-2005, 03:12 PM
Post: #5
Weekend Fun Day 2
You could always take one of those little blue pills Phil j/k
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01-18-2005, 03:14 PM
Post: #6
Weekend Fun Day 2
.
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01-18-2005, 03:16 PM
Post: #7
Weekend Fun Day 2
Phil
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01-18-2005, 03:20 PM
Post: #8
Weekend Fun Day 2
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01-18-2005, 06:06 PM
Post: #9
Weekend Fun Day 2
Looking good, except for the tendecy of some models to bring the storm farther north which would give us the worst ice and snow storm of the century. Imagine 5 inches of ice followed by temps plummeting down to 15 F with 40 mph winds from the NE, then extermely heavy snow accum. to around 10 inches. I like the GFS on this one, b/c it's heading out towards the warm water which makes sense. The JMA is taking the storm right over my head, so I'm comprimising between the GFS and the JMA b/c the right always lie's inbetween the wrong. LI phil has made some good observations in his post on the Long Island Weather Forum, go check it out.
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01-18-2005, 06:47 PM (This post was last modified: 01-18-2005 06:55 PM by LI Phil.)
Post: #10
Weekend Fun Day 2
Keith,

We're NOT going to get 5" of ice, that I can promise you. However, latest model runs, as you point out, are bringing this puppy farther north, which I am not at all happy about. What's actually beginning to scare the hell out of me is that TWC is jumping all over this...which at 5 days out they NEVER do. The other scary thing is that almost all the models are figuring this thing out, with the ECMWF so far performing the best this whole winter. When they put a 968 low off my back door on Sunday, well, I pay attention. Tonight on LI we're going down to the SINGLE digits, by far our coldest weather of the season, followed by two clippers before the main event...ugh...8 more weeks of winter.

Could be "great" weather for the Eagles v. Falcons however...
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