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Snowfall for Sunday night into Monday
01-14-2005, 09:52 PM
Post: #1
Snowfall for Sunday night into Monday
in Long island, with the mesoscale percip from the great lakes being available for the alberta clipper, and the low offhshore...the ingerdients for snow will be at hand but a wave forming in Northern Vriginia will mix the ingerdients together. Nothing more then probably an 1 will be found, but once it get's off the NJ coast it will bomb and the boston area could see significant precip in the form of snow later sunday night.
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01-15-2005, 02:02 PM
Post: #2
Snowfall for Sunday night into Monday
With each new model run, my confidence rises on the probability of precip sunday night into monday. the ETA has the -20 C at 850 over us and when that hit's the warm atlantic, sufficent mixing could oocur. Later in the forecast period a immense storm is forecasted to come at 192 hours out roughly (depending on the model), depending on the location of the trof axis we could see very significant snowfall, the JMA has it bombing out to 972 so you can see why i warrant concern. as you travel further east on the island, snow will increase and when you get to around the longitude of Boston moderate snow accum. are expected, don't expect much in NYC though or Nassau county, (don't worry LI phil, I'll e-mail you pics of the snow).
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01-15-2005, 06:39 PM
Post: #3
Snowfall for Sunday night into Monday
Models are trending to a sharper trof which would cause offshore low to track further west, if this trend continues Boston will get hammered and so will portions of eastern long island, and Cape Cod would likely see a blizzard once again. The problem is though, it is a mesoscale feature and it is showing up on synpotic scale models means that variance is very likely. In fact this is very much like the post-Christmas storm that we had come through the area-with the short-wave digging and the offshore low at hand. I'm trending colder because of the way the models handle cold, for instance...it was forecasted intially to be 38 today in Deer Park New York, the high today at my high school was 29. With these colder temperatures, more instability would be present, and thus more snowy in nature. As we can see my wave did develop and where i wanted it to nonetheless (check out the Stick Weather Maps).
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