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Yet another potential winter storm
02-12-2008, 06:23 AM
Post: #1
Yet another potential winter storm
Well folks it seems as though yet another winter storm may affect portions of Iowa during the the latter part of the week. A system currently off the NW Pacific coast is forecast to affect the area by Thursday and could drop possibly 6+ inches of snow. A winter storm watch may be issued for portions of Iowa later this afternoon.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site...glossary=1

Craig Maire
Http://www.easterniowastormchaser.com
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02-12-2008, 07:22 AM
Post: #2
Yet another potential winter storm
And don't forget the East Coast. Yet another storm system headed our way tonight, into Wednesday. 6 inches expected with freezing rain and ice following the snow. It's been snowing about every other day for weeks now. We are up to 80 inches total snow now. Above the yearly average of 74. Comon spring.!

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02-12-2008, 08:19 AM
Post: #3
Yet another potential winter storm
Oh, EJ, I am cringing right now!!! My brother and family are going to be driving right into that mess when they move to Maine. Talk about terrible timing!
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02-12-2008, 09:28 AM
Post: #4
Yet another potential winter storm
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...OH VALLEY

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 121254Z - 121700Z

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND THEN
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY. HOURLY PRECIPITATION
RATES APPROACHING .10-.25 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY...WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION FROM NEAR SDF
ENEWD ACROSS SRN OH AND NERN KY...PERHAPS INTO WRN WV.

REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE A WELL
ESTABLISHED WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM ERN TX/THE ARKLATEX NEWD INTO
THE OH VALLEY WITH A 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ MAINTAINING CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. THIS SAME REGIME IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...EVEN INTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACH OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE
OVERALL ORIENTATION OF LARGE-SCALE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL WITH TIME AS SURFACE-850 MB LOWS
DEEPEN WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER.

AS OF 12Z...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
THE MOST INTENSE FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING FROM SDF TO LEX NWD TO THE
OH RIVER S OF LUK. STRENGTHENING WAA ALONG NOSE OF LLJ AND AHEAD OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL NEWD SHIFT OF THESE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES INTO SRN OH. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A
CHANGE OVER FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN OVER CNTRL/SRN OH.
FARTHER TO THE SW...BOUNDARY LAYER WAA MAY SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO
RAIN AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS NRN KY.

FINALLY...ACROSS NERN AR...WRN TN INTO WRN KY...BOUNDARY LAYER CAA
IN WAKE OF STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL EWD
PROGRESSION IN FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING ALONG WRN FRINGES OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD CURRENTLY FROM NW OF ARG-POF-MDH.

..MEAD.. 02/12/2008


...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS

[Image: mcd0204.gif]

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02-12-2008, 03:00 PM
Post: #5
Yet another potential winter storm
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...WRN/CENTRAL KY...WRN TN

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 121844Z - 130045Z

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL CONTINUE AND DEVELOP EWD ACROSS
SRN IN/WRN KY AND WRN TN THROUGH 00Z. HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES
UP TO 0.05 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC FREEZING LINE EXTENDING FROM
SCENTRAL IND /50 SE OF INDIANAPOLIS/ SWWD INTO FAR NWRN TN. MODERATE
PRESSURE RISES/COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT THE PROGRESSIVE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SFC FREEZING LINE
THROUGH FAR SRN IND...WRN/CENTRAL KY AND WRN TN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN APPROACHING VORT CENTER
OVER SRN MO. THIS VORT MAX WILL ACT ON PRE-EXISTING 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE TO INCREASE THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COMPONENT OF
VERTICAL MOTION. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INITIAL
RELATIVELY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND STRONG SWLY FLOW
ALOFT /ABOVE 850 MB/ MAINTAINING A LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING
AIR...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD WITHIN 2 HRS OF THE
SFC COLD FRONT PASSAGE. GENERALLY WEAKER FORCING WILL LIMIT PRECIP
RATES TO LESS THAN WAS SEEN EARLIER TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF KY/SRN
IND. AS THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER DIMINISHES IN VERTICAL
EXTENT...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION OVER TO SLEET FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WRN TN/WRN KY AFTER 21Z.

..CROSBIE.. 02/12/2008

[Image: mcd0210.gif]

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02-12-2008, 05:48 PM
Post: #6
Yet another potential winter storm
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PANHANDLE OF WV...NRN VA...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL
MD...SERN PA/NJ...NRN DE

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 122115Z - 130315Z

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD THROUGH
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS. ALTHOUGH HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES UP
TO 0.05 INCH WILL BE THE MOST COMMON...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE BURSTS OF OVER 0.20 INCH/HR.

STRENGTHENING WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS
VALLEY WAS SUPPORTING INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION /EVIDENT BY COOLING CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SAT IMAGERY/. AT THE SFC...A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING LAYER
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND. NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF COOLER DRY
AIR /AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST AND CHESAPEAKE BAY/.
DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA SLOWLY TRYING TO ERODE THE ERN/SRN EDGES OF
THE SHALLOW SFC SUB-FREEZING LAYER...INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT A NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION OF THE SFC FREEZING LINE
FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY NEWD TO SOUTH OF THE D.C METRO AREA INTO
SRN NJ /WEST OF ACY/ THROUGH 03Z. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH HRLY
PRECIP RATES OVER 0.20 INCH....POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MODERATE ICING
IN SOME LOCATIONS IF CELL TRAINING OCCURS. LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW OVER
NJ/SERN PA IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN
AS THE STRONG WAA SUPPORTS A DEEPENING ELEVATED WARM LAYER.

[Image: mcd0213.gif]

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