Big Ice Storm Threat Wednesday-Friday

[LI Phil]

DAY 3...

PLAINS TO NORTHEAST...
ITS RATHER REMARKABLE HOW CLOSE THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
ON THE HANDLING OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST SHEARING
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE PLAINS ON DAY 2. THIS AGREEMENT CONTINUES
RIGHT INTO THE DAY 3 FCST AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY AND INDUCE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE WAVE. THE PROBLEM
ONCE AGAIN WILL BE A CONTINUOUS AMOUNT OF LL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AND INTERACTING WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE MS VLY
NEWRD INTO THE NORTHEAST. BY USING A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL GUDIANCE... A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND SLIDE RIGHT UP OF THE OH RIVER. THE 850 MB LL JET WILL FUNNEL
1.5 INCH PWS NORTHWARD AND THIS MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN INTO THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. UNFORTUNATELY... HPC EXPECTS A VERY EXPANSIVE
AREA OF HVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN STREAKING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. IN FACT... IF THE GFS/ETA ARE CORRECT... THE FREEZING RAIN
ASPECT COULD BE VERY SIGNIFICANT TO POSSIBLY HISTORIC.

[Jason234]

I Like The Gfs, Happy Bday Li Phil

[James]

So this Ice Storm could be of the same intensity as the Canadian Ice Storm of 1998? I sure hope not.

[LI Phil]

I doubt it would be THAT bad, but the potential exists...We had a pretty bad ice storm in '94 I believe...fortunately we didn't lose power (living in an apartment at the time), but couldn't open the car doors for two days...and broke the drivers' side rearview mirror trying to break (not scrape) the ice off. I think (and sure do hope) LI doesn't see any ice, but someone certainly will. The fact that it will occur during the work week doesn't help things either...Driving on I-90 and I-80 (two major east west superhighways) will hopefully be strongly discouraged.

[LI Phil]

DT's final call...

[LI Phil]

Day 1...

Plains To Northeast...
A Significant Winter Storm Will Affect Most Of The Ern Two-thirds
Of The Country During The 24 Hr Period. As Mentioned Over The Last
Few Days... Short Wave Dynamics From A Swrn Closed Low Is Shearing Out Into The Plains And This Short Wave Will Begin To Lift Through The Mid-ms Vly Into The Grt Lakes. The Short Wave Will Induce An Area Of Surface Low Pressure Over The Central Plains And Ride Up Along An Arctic Front. North Of This Front... Remains Cold Arctic Air Entrenched Across The Nrn Tier Of The Country. An Abundant Amount Of Subtropical And Gulf Of Mexico Ll Moisture Will Stream Northward And Overrun Into This Cold Sector. The Precip North And Along The Front Will Be Two-fold... Snow And Freezing Rain. The Snow Axis Will Basically Be Two Areas... One Over The Central Plains Into The Mid Ms Vly/wrn Grt Lakes And The Other Across The Northeast. The Snow On The Backside Of The System Will Have Several Factors Leading To Heavy Snowfall... Obviously Very Sufficient Thermal Profiles... Jet Coupling Of Two 250 Mb Jet
Streaks And A Well Defined 700/850 Mb Low. This Mid-level Low Will
Develop Over The Central Plains And Track To The Ene Across The Mid Ms Vly Toward Lake Michigan. To The Left Of These Two Lows Will Be Tremendous Lift As Uvvs Range From -5 To -11 Microbars Per
Sec. Hpc Is Expecting Hvy Snowfall From Sern Ne/nern Ks Through Ia
And Into Srn Wi/nrn Il. The Second Area Of Snowfall Will Be More Of The Overrunning/waa Variety As The 1.5 Inch Pws Surge Into The Region And The Arctic Air Undercuts The Mid-level Warming. Hpc Expects Hvy Snowfall To Occur In Nrn Pa/a Good Part Of Ny State
Into Srn New England. The Operational Model Guidance Remains In
Very Good Agreement With The Handling Of All These Features But
Differ On The Thermal Profiles Over The Oh Vly. The Gfs Is Much
Colder From 850 Mb To The Boundary Layer Than The Eta... Which Is
Slightly Warmer. It Is Very Interesting With Such Good Mass Field
Agreement But Differing Thermal Profiles. The One Certainty And
Outcome Across This Region Will Be Significant To Historical Freezing Rain. Hpc Followed A Blend Of The Thermal Profiles Since
The Mass Fields Were In Good Agreement And Both Models Initialized
Very Well With The Boundary Layer Across The Region.


Day 2...

Northeast/ern Grt Lakes
The Winter Storm Will Begin To Wind Down On Day 2 As The Surface
Low Traveling West Of The Appalachians Into Ontario/quebec Begins
To Occlude. A Secondary Are Of Low Pressure Will Form At The Triple Point And Along The Srn New England Coast. This Low Will
Form Due To The Upper Dynamics Transferring To The Coast. This
Will Shift The Significant Moisture Transport... From The Northeast To Off The Nern Seaboard. Once Again... Arctic Air Remains Very Stubborn Over The Region And The Model Guidance Is In
Very Good Agreement Concerning Mass Fields. The Eta And Gfs Though Continue To Battle On The Transition Zone Over Srn New England... The Gfs Showing A Well Defined Freezing Rain Zone And Eta Depicting Freezing Rain And Sleet. The Operational Model Guidance Generally Shows A .25 To .50 Inch Liquid Across This Area And By Continuing To Use A Blend Of The Thermal Profiles... A Rather
Extensive Area Of Freezing Rain Is Expected From Pa/ny Through Srn
New England. The Mid-level Low On Day 1 Will Slide Up Through Mi
And Into Canada Leading To More Heavy Snow Early In The Period
Across Lwr Mi. Overrunning Snows Will Also Linger Into Day 2
Across New England. However... The Eta And Gfs Generally Depict
Only A .25 Inch Liquid Across The Region As A Dry 700 Mb Intrusion
Slides In Behind The Occluding Surface Low. Heavy Snow
Probabilities Were Issued From Lwr Mi Eastward Through New
England.