Big Ice Storm Threat Wednesday-Friday
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01-03-2005, 03:44 PM
Post: #1
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Big Ice Storm Threat Wednesday-Friday
DAY 3...
PLAINS TO NORTHEAST... ITS RATHER REMARKABLE HOW CLOSE THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS ON THE HANDLING OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST SHEARING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE PLAINS ON DAY 2. THIS AGREEMENT CONTINUES RIGHT INTO THE DAY 3 FCST AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND INDUCE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE WAVE. THE PROBLEM ONCE AGAIN WILL BE A CONTINUOUS AMOUNT OF LL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AND INTERACTING WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE MS VLY NEWRD INTO THE NORTHEAST. BY USING A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUDIANCE... A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND SLIDE RIGHT UP OF THE OH RIVER. THE 850 MB LL JET WILL FUNNEL 1.5 INCH PWS NORTHWARD AND THIS MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN INTO THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. UNFORTUNATELY... HPC EXPECTS A VERY EXPANSIVE AREA OF HVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN STREAKING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. IN FACT... IF THE GFS/ETA ARE CORRECT... THE FREEZING RAIN ASPECT COULD BE VERY SIGNIFICANT TO POSSIBLY HISTORIC. |
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01-03-2005, 04:00 PM
Post: #2
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Big Ice Storm Threat Wednesday-Friday
I Like The Gfs, Happy Bday Li Phil
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01-03-2005, 05:57 PM
Post: #3
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Big Ice Storm Threat Wednesday-Friday
So this Ice Storm could be of the same intensity as the Canadian Ice Storm of 1998? I sure hope not.
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01-03-2005, 06:31 PM
Post: #4
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Big Ice Storm Threat Wednesday-Friday
I doubt it would be THAT bad, but the potential exists...We had a pretty bad ice storm in '94 I believe...fortunately we didn't lose power (living in an apartment at the time), but couldn't open the car doors for two days...and broke the drivers' side rearview mirror trying to break (not scrape) the ice off. I think (and sure do hope) LI doesn't see any ice, but someone certainly will. The fact that it will occur during the work week doesn't help things either...Driving on I-90 and I-80 (two major east west superhighways) will hopefully be strongly discouraged.
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01-05-2005, 02:44 PM
Post: #5
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Big Ice Storm Threat Wednesday-Friday
DT's final call...
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01-05-2005, 02:50 PM
Post: #6
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Big Ice Storm Threat Wednesday-Friday
Day 1...
Plains To Northeast... A Significant Winter Storm Will Affect Most Of The Ern Two-thirds Of The Country During The 24 Hr Period. As Mentioned Over The Last Few Days... Short Wave Dynamics From A Swrn Closed Low Is Shearing Out Into The Plains And This Short Wave Will Begin To Lift Through The Mid-ms Vly Into The Grt Lakes. The Short Wave Will Induce An Area Of Surface Low Pressure Over The Central Plains And Ride Up Along An Arctic Front. North Of This Front... Remains Cold Arctic Air Entrenched Across The Nrn Tier Of The Country. An Abundant Amount Of Subtropical And Gulf Of Mexico Ll Moisture Will Stream Northward And Overrun Into This Cold Sector. The Precip North And Along The Front Will Be Two-fold... Snow And Freezing Rain. The Snow Axis Will Basically Be Two Areas... One Over The Central Plains Into The Mid Ms Vly/wrn Grt Lakes And The Other Across The Northeast. The Snow On The Backside Of The System Will Have Several Factors Leading To Heavy Snowfall... Obviously Very Sufficient Thermal Profiles... Jet Coupling Of Two 250 Mb Jet Streaks And A Well Defined 700/850 Mb Low. This Mid-level Low Will Develop Over The Central Plains And Track To The Ene Across The Mid Ms Vly Toward Lake Michigan. To The Left Of These Two Lows Will Be Tremendous Lift As Uvvs Range From -5 To -11 Microbars Per Sec. Hpc Is Expecting Hvy Snowfall From Sern Ne/nern Ks Through Ia And Into Srn Wi/nrn Il. The Second Area Of Snowfall Will Be More Of The Overrunning/waa Variety As The 1.5 Inch Pws Surge Into The Region And The Arctic Air Undercuts The Mid-level Warming. Hpc Expects Hvy Snowfall To Occur In Nrn Pa/a Good Part Of Ny State Into Srn New England. The Operational Model Guidance Remains In Very Good Agreement With The Handling Of All These Features But Differ On The Thermal Profiles Over The Oh Vly. The Gfs Is Much Colder From 850 Mb To The Boundary Layer Than The Eta... Which Is Slightly Warmer. It Is Very Interesting With Such Good Mass Field Agreement But Differing Thermal Profiles. The One Certainty And Outcome Across This Region Will Be Significant To Historical Freezing Rain. Hpc Followed A Blend Of The Thermal Profiles Since The Mass Fields Were In Good Agreement And Both Models Initialized Very Well With The Boundary Layer Across The Region. Day 2... Northeast/ern Grt Lakes The Winter Storm Will Begin To Wind Down On Day 2 As The Surface Low Traveling West Of The Appalachians Into Ontario/quebec Begins To Occlude. A Secondary Are Of Low Pressure Will Form At The Triple Point And Along The Srn New England Coast. This Low Will Form Due To The Upper Dynamics Transferring To The Coast. This Will Shift The Significant Moisture Transport... From The Northeast To Off The Nern Seaboard. Once Again... Arctic Air Remains Very Stubborn Over The Region And The Model Guidance Is In Very Good Agreement Concerning Mass Fields. The Eta And Gfs Though Continue To Battle On The Transition Zone Over Srn New England... The Gfs Showing A Well Defined Freezing Rain Zone And Eta Depicting Freezing Rain And Sleet. The Operational Model Guidance Generally Shows A .25 To .50 Inch Liquid Across This Area And By Continuing To Use A Blend Of The Thermal Profiles... A Rather Extensive Area Of Freezing Rain Is Expected From Pa/ny Through Srn New England. The Mid-level Low On Day 1 Will Slide Up Through Mi And Into Canada Leading To More Heavy Snow Early In The Period Across Lwr Mi. Overrunning Snows Will Also Linger Into Day 2 Across New England. However... The Eta And Gfs Generally Depict Only A .25 Inch Liquid Across The Region As A Dry 700 Mb Intrusion Slides In Behind The Occluding Surface Low. Heavy Snow Probabilities Were Issued From Lwr Mi Eastward Through New England. |
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