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New Year's Day Maddness
01-01-2005, 07:02 PM (This post was last modified: 01-04-2005 07:59 PM by Jason234.)
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New Year's Day Maddness
The pattern has been very zonal for the first day of January with the polar vortex near Hudson Bay, having shortwave's shear off to it. Thing's are changing, and seem like I have to push back my pattern change date to Jan. 15., for some reasons. There is no clear model prog, and I seem to be in a guessing game for which one to pick. The ETA has been dead on this year but it isn't a longrange model. The UKMET is taking the cold to the exterme, with dropping -40 height field's into the Dakota's. The GFS is advertising the current pattern, not forecasting and the NOGAPS is saying it will be warm for the rest of the month. Well which one do I chose, I don't- I'm splitting down the middle and making half the month warm and half the month cold.

Right now there is a battle raging. That low level cold air is abreast on the situation happening down in the Ohio Valley and Northeast and is waiting. With this cross-polar flow it's just going to get colder and colder and colder in Canada and we're just waiting for the trof east of Hawaii. UKMET says that will be east 96 hours from now, but has energy hanging back in the southwest (common error). ETA agree's with this sudden pattern change also but I think the warmth will prevail-even though it at a natural disadvantage. That southeast ridge is just hanging tough, and can only take one combo to kill it. This is not to mean it won't get cold and snowy, it's just at a disadvantage and will be hindered somewhat in the east.
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