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Warm-up
12-27-2004, 05:01 PM (This post was last modified: 12-28-2004 03:14 PM by Jason234.)
Post: #1
Warm-up
I do want to mention a rather large warm-up that will be occurring over the next 5 days- but I can't stress enough that it is an "false idol warm-up." Winter is not over, actually I already have 7 inches of snow total for December, pretty darn good, when you look at what's average. Anyway, GFS seems to be making a mistake once again with sucking down the cold arctic air from Canada too fast...which is odd because the GFS usually does good with timing. The ETA, UKMET, and the NOGAPS, seem in touch tho the UKMET is very slow...but it all depends on the SOI signal which IS going positive, it's just a matter of time and that's why it is called a "False Idol Warm-up." Also the possibility of more deep south snow's lingers, but for now just rain showers...Seems like sometime in January there will be a rare alignment of the indices for the cold, "maybe" even a negative NAO... New Year's Record temps. could possibly be broken, and that is going out on a limb considering the record ball drop temp. is in the upper 50's!
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12-27-2004, 05:28 PM
Post: #2
Warm-up
The East and Southeast will be warming up for the Dec 27-Jan 3 period, then the pattern will again turn colder...like Keith says, winter isn't over...hell, it's only just begun. This is going to be a wild week for a lot of the nation, just not here on the East Coast.

The absolute MONSTAH storm about to slam into the West Coast is chock full of Pacific moisture, and when all is said and done, parts of California could see 4-8", setting off mudslides. Winds (gusts) could reach hurricane force with this bad boy. Mountain areas could easily see one-two feet or more of the white stuff. That's all gonna slide eastward as the week progresses. The jet will split on Tuesday, and this storm is gonna ride the southern split all the way up into the Dakota's later in the week. This split jet will keep the cold air locked away in Canada, so there will be few areas of the country that will see any snow through the end of the week.

Look for cold to begin returning to the nation's heartland towards the end of the week as another vat of cold will be poised to spill out of Canada and we start the warm-cold-warm-cold pattern all over again.
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12-27-2004, 09:57 PM
Post: #3
Warm-up
1-2 ft on the Sierra Nevada always happens. I calling for more like 6-8 feet...you'll understand what I mean when you climb up 16,000 ft moutains with a car that have thermometers in them.
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12-27-2004, 10:13 PM
Post: #4
Warm-up
Keith, I said 1-2 feet or more...I don't know what the most snow ever to fall from one system is, but I can pretty much guarantee it ain't 6, let alone 8 FT! I could see four, maybe tops five...from one three day storm...not a fairly quick mover like this one...
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12-28-2004, 09:28 AM
Post: #5
Warm-up
You'd be surprised, the most snow that fell in 24 hours was 58.6"!!! If you ever go to the Japanese Alps , then you'll see...a town called Takada averages over 262" a season! So yes they can very well see 6-8 ft in 2 days.
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12-28-2004, 09:31 AM
Post: #6
Warm-up
Another thing about the warm-up...it might become eclipsed for a large chunk of the country, the GFS has been very persistent with bringing down frigid air and holding it there for quite some time. But alas it is the GFS and is the precurosr for things to come, so just wanted to give the heads up.
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