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Christmas Storm?
12-21-2004, 05:17 PM
Post: #1
Christmas Storm?
The modeling has lead me to believe things are very uncertain...most medium to long range guidance suggests that a ridge over the east will be pre-dominate, while others are to the lesser extent. What amazes me the most is that they all have the same belief that a piece of energy from the next trof will be left behind, except the UKMET, partially the NOGAPS, and the ETA, they seem to be residing in my camp - at least for the time. If that is case, and the energy does get left behind the GFS etc. models are right. But here's the kicker, during the summer we noticed a trof east of Hawaii, which prevented any SIGNIFICANT cut-offs to reside on the west coast, thus allowing all energy to dig into the trof in the east - which can be attributed to the below average temps. So if the energy isn't left behind, then a second wave will most likely develop ride up the east coast and provide a last minute white Christmas. The point is, don't leave the modeling to the model, try and always tweak the solution set. I am surprised the NWS tho, is not mentioning the possibilities...seems very conceded of them, wouldn't one say so! There's the update, keep looking for a trof east of Hawaii, and what will happen with the energy coming down from the next trof.
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12-22-2004, 06:54 PM
Post: #2
Christmas Storm?
Still anticipating a light snow event for the mid-atlantic coast...but the amount of digging of the trof seems to the variable that will determine it. Again this is all a bi-product of sticking a trof down the west coast, which is an enigma to me. I'm not predicting anything major, but don't be surprised if you see snow falling and some on the ground, all that matters really is that it is occuring on Christmas! Just because the favored storm track is not for us eastern snow geese, doesn't mean it will be like that for the whole winter- be paitent grasshopper, the season is young! Keep in mind, weather in el nino years is highly unperdictable...
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12-22-2004, 09:07 PM
Post: #3
Christmas Storm?
Interesting setup. Half of the models want to make it clean and green for areas north of Atlantic City, while the other half keep the low close enough to the coast to throw some of the white stuff (just flurries, no accumulation) into the picture. I agree with 234 that the EC from Raleigh north to AC will probably see some snow, not much, but some...maybe a dusting to an inch. Not giving up on flurries on the 25th, but not real confident either.

Of a more interesting note could be the historic possible snow for the Gulf Coast on the 24th...that's another thread, however.

Regardless, it will be COLD on Christmas eve for the south, and about average to a little below average for the rest of the Mid-Atlantic...a bit below average on Christmas Day itself, but nothing to write home about.
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12-22-2004, 09:13 PM
Post: #4
Christmas Storm?
The 18Z run seems to be taking a solid time period of light snow out of Christmas day. While some models are to a lesser extent, the GFS is always the usually outlier, so take it for what it's worth...now if other models start picking up on it, then my thoughts might change a bit, but until then nothing really to update on.
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