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Mobile winter weather
12-20-2004, 04:49 PM
Post: #1
Mobile winter weather
Resulting In A Longwave Trof
Advancing Into The Plains On Thursday. A Cold Dome Of High Pressure
Builds Into The Region In The Wake Of The Front...with The
Possibility Of Just About A Once In A Lifetime Event Later On...see
Extended Discussion.

&&

.extended...the Positively Tilted Longwave Trof Advances Across The
Plains And Into The Eastern States Through Christmas Day. A Surface
Low Meanwhile Moves From The Western Gulf On Christmas Eve
Night...across The Gulf And Into The Western Atlantic. 1000-850 Mb
And 1000-700 Mb Thicknesses Drop Below Critical Values Thursday
Night...and Remain Below Critical Values Through Much Of Sunday.
The Canadian Gem And Gfs Are In Excellent Agreement On The Placement
And Intensity Of The Cold Air...but Are Not In Agreement On The
Placement And Development Of The Surface Low Moving Across The
Gulf. There Is Plenty Of Confidence That It Will Be Rather Cold
Christmas Eve And Christmas Day To Be Sure...and Despite The Model
Disagreement...think That The Pattern Certainly Supports A Surface
Low Moving Across The Gulf...although The Precise Trajectory Of This
Feature Is Still Somewhat Amorphous. Strictly Based On
Climatology...the Return Period For Snow In Our Area Is About Every
Four Years...thus The Conditional Probability Of Snow On Christmas
Day Is About One Third Of One Percent. Considering All Of This And
After Much Discussion...will Go With Wording Introducing The
Possibility Of Snow Friday And Friday Night. Temperatures Moderate
Somewhat By Monday...but Remain Below Seasonable Levels.

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12-20-2004, 04:57 PM
Post: #2
Mobile winter weather
Rollie,

I'll sure be pulling for you to see your White Christmas...some present...It should definitely be COLD enough, you just need a moisture source. Some of the boys at Accuwx are hinting at the possibility, yet DT doesn't bring it up (what's up with that?). Will keep an eye on it for you...

Cheers!
:snow
^ROLLIE^
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12-20-2004, 05:00 PM
Post: #3
Mobile winter weather
HPC thinks you'll have moisture...

(Singing) "I'm dreaming of a white christmas"



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12-20-2004, 06:58 PM
Post: #4
Mobile winter weather
The 18z runs aren't developing the second wave, so infact moisture - while it will not be hard to find, won't be displayed like that.
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12-20-2004, 08:02 PM
Post: #5
Mobile winter weather
You can't make a forecast on Monday for Fri-Sat...if you want to say some models are backing off the moisture, then by all means, you are free to do so. To kill Rollie's chances for a white christmas this early...(doing best Dana Carvey/George Bush I) "Naht ganna-duit."

By Wednesday, we'll have a much better handle on things...this could be an historical event, and too early to write it off, even if there's historically less than 1/3 of 1% chance of it happening...

SNOW FOR ROLLIE, SNOW FOR ROLLIE, SNOW FOR ROLLIE!!!!
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12-20-2004, 10:55 PM
Post: #6
Mobile winter weather
I am visiting Mobile for Christmas like I've been every one of the 25 years of my life... I remember this same situation happening back in either 91 or 92 around december 22-24... at that time the low developed, had lots of moisture, but was just about 30-40 miles too far south so all we got was some snow grains and a little light snow at the airport for about 30 minutes... i HOPE LIKE HELL this happens this time, I was only 12 at the time and was crushed...
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12-21-2004, 04:24 AM
Post: #7
Mobile winter weather
Hea Roll recon we can have another storm like we did that March when it snowed 1 1/2 in that afternoon? That was a day when I had to be up on I-65 working a wreck and ice sticking to me. be nice to have a white Christmas like that.
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12-21-2004, 10:42 AM
Post: #8
Mobile winter weather
Still keeping my fingers crossed...not gonna throw in the towel for your white Christmas just yet, but looking less likely with each new model run...should have a handle on it by tomorrow.
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12-21-2004, 02:48 PM
Post: #9
Mobile winter weather
Hate to break it to you, but it looks like the GFS is making an error, it's leaving a piece of that energy back in the moutains of mexico, as a direct effect of the cold air discharge. With that trof east of Hawaii, you never see cut-off's in Mexico...said plain and simply. Because of this error, it is screwing up the forecast for the short term and in the long range!
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12-21-2004, 04:55 PM
Post: #10
Mobile winter weather
Wednesday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Wednesday night. Numerous showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds. Lows in the mid 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Thursday. Partly cloudy. Cooler. Slight chance of rain in the morning. Highs in the lower 50s. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday night. Partly cloudy. Colder. Lows in the upper 20s.

Friday. Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of rain mixed with light sleet then chance of rain mixed with snow in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Friday night. Partly cloudy. Chance of snow in the evening. No accumulation expected. Lows around 17. Chance of snow 30 percent.
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