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East Coast Storm
12-15-2004, 05:12 PM
Post: #1
East Coast Storm
I'm NOT liking what I'm seeing for the East Coast Sun-Mon. Models are gradually coming into agreement for what will certainly be a nasty event up the East Coast Sunday into Monday...with what seems to be a fairly decent chance for a full-blown BLIZZARD if things come together as the models are seeing it. It's not just the Good For Shit (GFS) model anymore, but all the long range models are seeing a MAJOR low (JMA for example has a 964!!! mb low) parked just south of Long Island at 12Z on Sunday, 20 Dec. There is going to be plenty of moisture to work with and with the pressure gradient setting up like it is, folks, we could easily see sustained winds of 30-40 mph with 60 mph gusts.

Big cold shot driving south out of Canada this weekend will have plenty enuf cold air in place that everyone on the coast, all the way down to Georgia, COULD see snow. I'm not going to hazard a guess at amounts, as it could be anywhere from a dusting (further south) to a foot or more (New England). Basically anyone from Jersey northward COULD be looking at 6+". Right now I think this could start out as rain for coastal locations, but turning to all heavy wet blowing snow after that. Interior regions would see all snow, and probably lighter and fluffier stuff at that.

My rule of thumb is never to forecast anything past 72 hours, so this is merely letting anyone reading this know the POTENTIAL is there. We should have a much better handle on this by Friday, when I will make my call...feel free to post comments and or criticisms...
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12-15-2004, 11:23 PM
Post: #2
East Coast Storm
Not looking any better with the latest runs...
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12-15-2004, 11:26 PM
Post: #3
East Coast Storm
how's the snow outlook for Va.Beach, VA?
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12-16-2004, 02:15 PM
Post: #4
East Coast Storm
I'll post a forecast tomorrow, but now the models appear to be backing off a huge event for the coast...this is due primarily to the low moving further offshore than they had predicted yesterday. The major snowfall, if there is any, would be confined to New England.

As far as Va beach, I wouldn't take the shovel out of storage just yet. It will, however get real cold from the Mississippi east, all the way down to Rollieville (Mobile). Poor bastids in Florida that didn't lose their citrus groves due to the four horses of the apocaplyse might see a freeze to take care of the rest.

Forecast tomorrow...
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12-16-2004, 02:50 PM
Post: #5
East Coast Storm
I don't want to come across mean...but did you actually think there was going to be a blizzard? The storm has potential, but we are not getting over 12 inches of snow...that I can say with the utmost confidence, here in Long Island.
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12-16-2004, 03:22 PM
Post: #6
East Coast Storm
Keith, you are not being mean...but 12" of snow does not fall under the definition of blizzard. We could have 3 feet of snow and not have a blizzard. The definition of a blizzard is thus: "A severe weather condition characterized by low temperatures, winds 35 mph or greater, and sufficient falling and/or blowing snow in the air to frequently reduce visibility to 1/4 mile or less for a duration of at least 3 hours."

Based on those criteria, there could be blizzard conditions on Monday in the NORTHEAST...I did not necessarily say Long Island. And New England could see a foot of snow in some places.
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12-16-2004, 03:45 PM
Post: #7
East Coast Storm
Actually with increased precip. (then before) over a given amount of time comes a increase in wind, always. The storm is not going to the interior northeast whatsoever, if the trof is negatively tilted, with that scenario it would hit eastern long Island, and if anything at all would probably clip the Boston region. Some of the models are having trouble forming Upper level support..we'll see but the trend is for something to form off the north Carolinan coast, thereafter options diverge. Probably see a 1-3 inch snow belt along the I-95 corridor, with some places picking up 4-6 inches around the Boston, Cape Cod region...but way to early, and especially with a system like this.
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12-17-2004, 02:15 PM
Post: #8
East Coast Storm
OK, here's the call. The models seem to backing off their Wednesday insanity a bit, which is a good thing. However, they're also putting the cold air in place just around time the precip should start falling, so for many areas up the east coast, from Virginia northward, even if the precip starts off as rain, it will changeover to snow...probably anywhere from a dusting to an inch for DC up to Baltimore, 1-3 up to Atlantic City, 3-6 from AC to NYC and 6+ north and east of NYC. Precip begins in earnest late Sunday...and continues into Monday, when there could be some areas which get a big burst of snow in a relatively short period of time, as much as 2-3" per hour.

Saturday will feature another small storm off the coast of Carolina which will traverse far enough away from the coast such that maybe the eastern end of LI and Cape Cod catch a piece of it. The rest of the coast stays fairly dry.

Lake effect snows, which are ongoing as I type this, will continue as the burst of cold air heads south out of Canada.

Models are progging another storm to follow the weekend storm on Wednesday or Thursday...plus next week will be VERY cold, cold even into Texas and the deep south...so...any available moisture has the chance to fall to the ground as snow. There could be a White Christmas for a lot of people this year...as yet another storm is being shown on the models next Saturday off the Carolina coast! Travel could be on the hectic side on the 25th for a lot of east coast residents...but that's WAY too far off to make any kind of a call yet. Just letting you know the pattern setup and the possible outcomes.

I'll probably have to tweak this (hopefully on the lower side of snowfall) over the next day or so. That's all for now.
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