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5/2/07-5/3/07 Severe weather thread most of TX
05-02-2007, 08:22 AM
Post: #1
5/2/07-5/3/07 Severe weather thread most of TX
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS A LARGE PART OF TX...

...TX...
MODELS VERY SIMILAR IN TAKING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE AZ/NM
BORDER AT 12Z EWD INTO WRN TX BY THIS EVENING AND OVER CENTRAL OK/TX
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX TODAY AND TONIGHT. ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE TX COAST INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT REINFORCED BY
SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT MOST LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM E-CENTRAL/NERN TX
WSWWD ROUGHLY ALONG I-20 INTO SWRN TX AS FORECAST BY 09Z RUC.
SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 68F SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS S-CENTRAL
AND WEST TX...AS EVIDENCED BY MORNING SOUNDINGS. COMBINATION OF
STRONG EML AND RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RUC AND NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MLCAPE FROM 2500-3500 J/KG NEAR THE FRONT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MORNING OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND SUPERCELLS ACROSS MOST OF
THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AS 40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET /ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING TROUGH/ OVERSPREADS THE RIO GRANDE AND CENTRAL TX BY
LATER TODAY.

ONGOING CLUSTER OF INTENSE STORMS/MCS NOW OVER FAR SERN NM WILL
ILKLEY CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND BUILD SLOWLY SWD INTO SWRN/W-CENTRAL
TX THIS MORNING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND MAF 12Z SOUNDING INDICATE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S F SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS LATER THIS MORNING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS STORMS ROOT INTO A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND INVOF
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS CAP BREAKS AND AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY UNFOLD FROM A MYRIAD OF
STORM TYPES...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS/BOW
ECHOES. LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME VERY LARGE AND
DAMAGING...WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CORES. WIND DAMAGE MAY
ALSO BECOME LIKELY AND POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE
INTO BOWING SEGMENTS AND SPREAD ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING AND REMAIN FED BY A VERY UNSTABLE AND CAPPED AIR MASS
OVER S/SERN TX. THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK TODAY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS STILL EXPECTED GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ENHANCE LOCAL
SRH.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 05/02/2007
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05-02-2007, 08:53 AM
Post: #2
5/2/07-5/3/07 Severe weather thread most of TX
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN NM AND W TX.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 021219Z - 021445Z

SRN PORTION OF COMPLEX CONTAINING NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
POSE HAZARD FROM HEAVY RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR AS IT MOVES EWD
THROUGH 15Z. ISOLATED/MRGLLY SVR HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
STG GUSTS ESPECIALLY ALONG SRN EDGE OF TSTM COMPLEX WHERE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE. MORE WELL-ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL IN AND
NEAR THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MIDMORNING ONWARD...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MORE VIGOROUS DIABATIC HEATING S OF THIS COMPLEX
AND INVOF WARM FRONT. THAT MAY REQUIRE SEPARATE DISCUSSION WITHIN
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MEANWHILE PRIMARY THREAT WILL REMAIN FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL. MERGING/TRAINING OF CORES WILL ENHANCE THIS PROBLEM.

DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 12Z FROM BETWEEN
FST-GDP...ESEWD NEAR FST...TO BETWEEN DRT-UVA...AND SHOULD DRIFT/MIX
NWD THROUGH LATE MORNING. RICH MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE BUOYANCY
EVIDENT IN 12Z MAF RAOB LAUNCHED JUST N OF WARM FRONT -- WITH ALMOST
1.25 INCH PW...850 MB DEW POINT AROUND 12 C...AND MEAN MIXING RATIO
APPROXIMATELY 11 G/KG. 25-35 KT ABSOLUTE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN
LOW LEVEL ABOVE SFC...AS ISALLOBARIC/ISALLOHYPSIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH APCHG UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSETS DIURNAL TENDENCY FOR COUPLING OF
BOUNDARY LAYER TO WEAKEN LLJ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE WINDS AS WELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN
INFLOW LAYER. LOW LEVEL KINEMATIC PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SWATH OF FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE/ASCENT IN THIS REGION...SUPPORTING
EWD SHIFT OF CONVECTION FROM SERN NM ACROSS ADJACENT PORTIONS W TX.

ALSO REF NESDIS SATELLITE PRECIP ESTIMATES UNDER WMO HEADER TXUS20
KNES FOR ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE.

[Image: mcd0642.gif]

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05-02-2007, 08:53 AM
Post: #3
5/2/07-5/3/07 Severe weather thread most of TX
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW/W-CENTRAL TX...SMALL PART OF EXTREME
SERN NM.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021240Z - 021445Z

SVR TSTM POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS THIS
REGION...AS SFC DIABATIC HEATING NEAR AND S OF WARM FRONT
DIABATICALLY HEATS/DESTABILIZES AIR MASS IN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR.

AT 12Z...SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW BETWEEN FST-GDP...WITH WARM
FRONT ESEWD BETWEEN FST-INK TO VICINITY UVA AND SAT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT/MIX NWD ACROSS I-10 DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MEANWHILE...SFC HEATING SHOULD ERODE WEAK CAP EVIDENT IN MAF RAOB
FROM WNW-ESE...WITH STRONGER CINH EVIDENT AROUND DRT. EVEN THOUGH N
OF WARM FRONT...SHALLOW CHARACTER OF STABLE LAYER IN MAF RAOB
INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR GUSTS GENERATED ALONG SRN EDGE
OF EXISTING COMPLEX TO REACH SFC. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
SWD TOWARD WARM FRONTAL ZONE AND INTO WARM SECTOR THROUGH FORENOON
HOURS. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH TEMPS HEATING INTO 70S F WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG DEVELOPING BY 15Z...AND
INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG BY 17Z ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT OVER
SW TX. ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS MAY REMAIN WEAK...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
35 KT NEAR INK -- INCREASING SWD TO AROUND 50 KT NEAR RIO
GRANDE...WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND BOW ECHO POTENTIAL.

REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 642 FOR HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER NRN PART
OF THIS AREA.

..EDWARDS.. 05/02/2007


ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
[Image: mcd0643.gif]

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05-02-2007, 08:54 AM
Post: #4
5/2/07-5/3/07 Severe weather thread most of TX
SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 208
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
800 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 800 AM UNTIL
300 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF HOBBS NEW MEXICO TO 85 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT
STOCKTON TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...DEVELOPING MCS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING OVER WW THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING OUT OF AZ.
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME
QUITE LARGE. WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO BECOME A THREAT AS HEATING
WEAKENS NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.


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05-02-2007, 10:16 AM
Post: #5
5/2/07-5/3/07 Severe weather thread most of TX
[Image: mcd0644.gif]
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W CNTRL/SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208...

VALID 021511Z - 021645Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208
CONTINUES.

ONGOING INTENSE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO NEAR/EAST OF
MIDLAND...AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD AROUND 20 KT. IT SEEMS PROBABLE
THAT EASTERLY STORM RELATIVE INFLOW OF COOLER/POTENTIALLY LESS
UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST SOME WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY
AS IT SPREADS TOWARD AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF SAN ANGELO/ABILENE THROUGH
18-19Z.

STRONGER INSTABILITY/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. AND...
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...IN CONJUNCTION WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...MAY TEND TO SUPPORT A
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE FORT STOCKTON AREA...TOWARD THE TEXAS BIG BEND. MODERATE
TO STRONG CAPE...RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG... WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL IN FLOW REGIME WITH SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. STRONG DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM.

..KERR.. 05/02/2007

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05-02-2007, 10:54 AM
Post: #6
5/2/07-5/3/07 Severe weather thread most of TX
Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans La
959 Am Cdt Wed May 2 2007

Gmz555-021700-
959 Am Cdt Wed May 2 2007

Harrison County Emergency Management Agency Has Reported A
Waterspout Over The Mississippi Sound Just South Of Biloxi. This
Should Pose No Threat To Inland Areas.

The Atmosphere Today Is Conducive For Further Waterspout And
Tropical Funnel Cloud Activity. Waterspouts Usually Dissipate When
Approaching Land Areas.

I am only a weather enthusiast, my opinions are just that, my opinions. Alway's stay informed with your local weather pro's.
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05-02-2007, 11:00 AM
Post: #7
5/2/07-5/3/07 Severe weather thread most of TX
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/odessa Tx
1054 Am Cdt Wed May 2 2007

Txz051-021700-
Martin-
1054 Am Cdt Wed May 2 2007

...significant Weather Alert...

This Significant Weather Alert Is For Martin County.

A Strong Thunderstorm Was Located 6 Miles West Of Courtney At 1054 Am
Cdt...moving Northeast At 20 Mph. This Storm Is Going Up And Down
In
Intensity And Could Become Severe Rapidly.

Storm Intensity Is Increasing And Severe Weather May Develop Rapidly.

Seek Shelter If Thunderstorms Approach Your Location.

$$

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05-02-2007, 12:09 PM (This post was last modified: 05-02-2007 12:15 PM by Christina514.)
Post: #8
5/2/07-5/3/07 Severe weather thread most of TX
The National Weather Service In San Angelo Has Issued A
* Tornado Warning For...
Sterling County In West Central Texas...
Panhandle Of Tom Green County In West Central Texas...
Northwestern Irion County In West Central Texas...
* Until 100 Pm Cdt
* At 1150 Am Cdt...national Weather Service Doppler Radar Indicated
A Severe Thunderstorm Capable Of Producing A Tornado 30 Miles West Of
Sterling City...or About 12 Miles South Of Garden City...
Moving
East At 30 Mph. This Tornado Is Embedded Within A Line Of Severe
Thunderstorms That Will Cover Much Of Irion And Sterling Counties.
Other Tornadoes May Develop Along The Line As Well.
* The Tornado Will Remain Over Mainly Rural Areas Of...
Sterling...northwestern Irion And Northwestern Tom Green Counties.
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEN
EGG SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 70 MPH.

I am only a weather enthusiast, my opinions are just that, my opinions. Alway's stay informed with your local weather pro's.
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05-02-2007, 12:42 PM
Post: #9
5/2/07-5/3/07 Severe weather thread most of TX
changer514 Wrote:Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans La
959 Am Cdt Wed May 2 2007

Gmz555-021700-
959 Am Cdt Wed May 2 2007

Harrison County Emergency Management Agency Has Reported A
Waterspout Over The Mississippi Sound Just South Of Biloxi. This
Should Pose No Threat To Inland Areas.

The Atmosphere Today Is Conducive For Further Waterspout And
Tropical Funnel Cloud Activity. Waterspouts Usually Dissipate When
Approaching Land Areas.


I could have intercepted that Sad

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05-02-2007, 12:44 PM
Post: #10
5/2/07-5/3/07 Severe weather thread most of TX
I wish you would have .....you could have posted some pics!

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