NE Georgia Mountain Weather
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09-30-2009, 12:14 PM
Post: #5
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NE Georgia Mountain Weather
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | [url=jwindow.print()]Print[/url] | Product List | Glossary Off Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 -- Highlight Changed Discussion -- -- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. -- 000 FXUS62 KGSP 301436 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1036 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE BROAD RIDGE SINKS SOUTH...UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES SHOULD WEAKEN. UPSLOPE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO RETREAT AROUND NOON...LEAVING ONLY A THIN BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND FEW MTN TOP CU. ELSEWHERE...SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COMPARE CLOSELY TO YESTERDAY/S VALUES. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT ON TAP AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL BANK OF SKIES REMAINING CLEAR ENUF FOR HIGH MTN VALLEYS TO BE ABLE TO RADIATE DOWN TO WHERE FROST DEVELOPMENT BECOMES PROBABLE. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...IT IS A ABOUT A 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT THE FIRST FROST OCCURS BY OCTOBER 1ST ACRS THESE AREAS.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...THU STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY NICE FALL DAY AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF THE SE COAST. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH TEMPS RUNNING AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON FRI THE NAM AND GFS BRING A PREFRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION INTO THE MTNS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS THAT DEVELOPS THU NIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY ENTER THE MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE SE STATES...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS IMPLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT I DID ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MTNS FRI NIGHT AS THE INITIAL FORCING LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...DELAYING FROPA. THE SREF HAS HIGH RAIN CHANCES FRI NGHT. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH MAINTAIN LLVL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN AS WELL. I/VE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CAT OVER THE MTNS AND WRN NC FOOTHILLS AND HIGH CHANCE ELSEWHERE. I IMAGINE POPS WILL BE RAISED FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...THE NEW NAM HAS A SHORT WAVE OVER WRN TN AND THE SFC FRONT STILL OVER NE GA AT 12 UTC SAT...IMPLYING A FAIRLY WET DAY FOR SAT...THOUGH THAT/S WHERE THE MODEL RUN STOPS. THE GFS IS SIMILAR IN THAT IT PUSHES THE INITIAL BAND OF PCPN INTO THE FA FRI AFTN...BUT IT THEN SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF...INCREASING PVA OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE OLD RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS FASTER...AND THE LATEST SREF IMPLIES THAT THE PCPN WILL BE RATHER EAST THAN THE NAM. I/M A LITTLE SUSPICIOUS OF THE NAM...SO I/LL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH HAS GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING...WITH DRYING SAT AFTN. THE WEATHER LOOKS GREAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS QUICKLY INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...REPLACED BY A BROAD RIDGE. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THE FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL AND STRONGER BY TUE. THE OLD ECMWF HAS SUFFICIENT LLVL WARM ADVECTION ON TUE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN. THE GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE RIDING AND IS THEREFORE DRIER WITH WEAKER WAA. I/VE BUMPED POPS UP A LITTLE ON TUE AS A NOD TO THE EC...BUT THAT STILL LEAVE THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DRY. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT KCLT...CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING TO GIVE WAY TO A FEW HIGH BASED CU THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FLATTEN AND PERHAPS LINGER INTO TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NW...AND INCREASE TO ABT 8 KTS BY MIDDAY BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. ACRS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS...CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH NW WINDS INCREASING...PERHAPS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN AT KAVL...BUT COULD REMAIN VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 6 KTS AT KGSP THANKS TO LEE TROUGH. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW AREAS OF MTN VALLEY FOG TO FORM. OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-049- 050. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TJB NEAR TERM...NED/CSH SHORT TERM...MCAVOY LONG TERM...MCAVOY AVIATION...CSH Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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