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Austin, TX Local Weather thread
10-21-2009, 03:01 PM
Post: #28
Austin, TX Local Weather thread
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 211753
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY THE SHOWERS THAT WERE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA. AFTER BRIEF CLEARING... CU HAS
REFORMED AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE FORMING PARTICULARLY AROUND
AUSTIN. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35. WINDS SHOULD STAY SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 KTS. CIGS
SHOULD STAY VFR... HOWEVER IF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COMES
THROUGH CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH KDRT AROUND 06Z AND ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z.
PRECIP SHOULD END PRIMARILY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CIGS
SLOWLY RISING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009/

UPDATE...
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PWS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.8 INCH
RANGE THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM RICK HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR
MAZATLAN. EXTRAPOLATION OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW
HEAVIEST RAINS OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AREA THURSDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL END
RAIN CHANCES. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBY IN
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST, REACHING KDRT ARND 04Z AND KAUS/KSAT/KSSF ARND 12Z. ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WILL
PREVAIL. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THE TERMINALS, WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 GUSTING TO 25 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TROPICAL PLUME FROM
TROPICAL STORM RICK WILL ADD INGREDIENT FOR HEAVIER RAINS. RICK
IS EXPECTED TO HIT MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY. THE COMBINED
LOW LEVEL GULF AND MID/UPPER PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM RICK WILL
RESULT IN A DEEP MOIST AND MORE BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE. WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA TODAY. PW (PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES WILL BE ON AVERAGE AN
INCH AND A HALF OR GREATER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY SO
SOME MODERATE SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS TONIGHT..THE
TROPICAL PLUME WILL TEND TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AS
DRIER WESTERLY WINDS SWEEP INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL LOWER PW`S
THROUGHOUT THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
TOMORROW. THUS.. RICK`S IMPACT TO OUR REGION (IN TERMS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL) MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO LINE THE FRONT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER BAJA IN 72 HOURS
(FRIDAY NIGHT) AND WILL MONITOR IN LATER RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY.
NONETHELESS..WILL KEEP DRY WESTERLIES ALOFT ACROSS REGION SATURDAY.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY
(WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT) THUS..SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO OUR AREA
WITH WARMER NIGHTTIME LOWS FORECAST. AM DISCOUNTING UPPER LOW
FORMING FOR NOW ACROSS BAJA THUS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
BE DISCOUNTED AS WELL ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE IF THIS FEATURE IS
CONTINUED ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SO STAY TUNED. WESTERLIES ALOFT
(WITH SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE) WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH WARM DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 75 52 75 52 / 90 40 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 75 46 76 46 / 90 40 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 76 49 79 48 / 80 50 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 60 72 48 72 50 / 80 30 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 78 53 81 57 / 20 10 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 73 49 73 51 / 90 40 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 67 77 47 79 50 / 60 30 10 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 76 48 74 49 / 90 50 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 74 53 73 50 / 90 60 10 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 64 76 52 78 51 / 70 40 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 77 52 77 52 / 70 40 10 - -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04/19/09

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Messages In This Thread
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - Shoshana - 07-26-2009, 12:40 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - Shoshana - 08-01-2009, 01:02 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - SpecialK - 08-02-2009, 07:02 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - Shoshana - 08-03-2009, 11:47 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - Shoshana - 08-20-2009, 03:19 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - Shoshana - 09-07-2009, 08:50 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-16-2009, 03:57 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-18-2009, 05:45 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-20-2009, 04:31 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-21-2009, 01:07 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-22-2009, 10:34 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-23-2009, 02:26 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-27-2009, 09:36 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-28-2009, 11:37 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-29-2009, 11:53 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-30-2009, 12:08 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-01-2009, 10:46 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-02-2009, 01:01 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-04-2009, 08:31 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-05-2009, 01:30 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-06-2009, 10:53 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-07-2009, 12:39 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-08-2009, 03:17 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-21-2009 03:01 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-24-2009, 02:08 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-25-2009, 03:22 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-27-2009, 12:25 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-31-2009, 02:11 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-16-2009, 04:08 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-18-2009, 09:10 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-20-2009, 09:21 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-21-2009, 10:34 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-22-2009, 07:57 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-24-2009, 06:29 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-01-2009, 05:02 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-01-2009, 02:55 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-02-2009, 07:12 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-03-2009, 08:29 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-09-2009, 10:22 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-16-2009, 12:10 AM

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