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Austin, TX Local Weather thread
10-01-2009, 10:46 AM
Post: #21
Austin, TX Local Weather thread
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 011430
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

.UPDATE...
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. MOISTURE PLUME FROM EASTERN
PACIFIC CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BETWEEN LBB AND ABI. HAVE UPDATED POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATION STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CONTINUED EFFECTS OF
MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE REGION. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009/

AVIATION...
CIGS 2 THSD TO 3 THSD BKN WILL BECOME 5 THSD SCT TO BKN WITH
HIGHER CLOUDS SCT TO BKN ABOVE 10 THSD FT AFTER 17Z. SCT SHRA FROM
NORTH OF KDRT TO WEST OF KAUS WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR KAUS TO KSAT
THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCT SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM FROM THE HILL COUNTRY AND EAST TO LA GRANGE AND HALLETTSVILLE
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER 05Z TONIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME CIGS 3 THSD TO 5 THSD BKN WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A KECU TO CARRIZO SPRINGS LINE.
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH A COLD FRONT
AFTER 06Z VCNTY KAUS AND VCNTY KSAT AROUND 09Z. BY 12Z
FRIDAY WINDS AT KDRT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009/

UPDATE...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY HAVE BECOME
MORE SOLID, SO UPPED THE POPS TO 30 PERCENT FOR COUNTIES IN ITS
PATH. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY-
AN INTENSIFYING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY
CAUSING UPPER HEIGHTS TO DROP OVER TEXAS AND SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL DUMP FROM 1/10 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN. UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, KEEPING THE
ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFTING OVER THE FRONTAL
SLOPE BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST
FLOW OVER THE FRONT IS AIMED AT THE SOUTHERN FACE OF THE
ESCARPMENT WEST OF SAN ANTONIO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
CONTINUOUS RAINS WITH WIDESPREAD ONE INCH AMOUNTS. LITTLE DIURNAL
CHANGE BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS SATURDAY.

SAT NIGHT-
ANY DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD WILL INCREASE RAINFALL
RATES ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. RAINFALL
TOTALS FOR THIS EPISODE STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
ALL FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING A LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTAL BUT
PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY- A MEAN UPPER TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND WINDS
OVER TEXAS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE
MID LEVELS AND EVENTUALLY DECREASE RAINFALL COVERAGE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY- THE MEAN UPPER TROF SEPARATES INTO A
SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW NEAR BAJA AND A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM TROF. THIS WEILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH TEXAS BUT STALLING OUT BEFORE REACHING THE HILL COUNTRY.
SO A RETURN TO MILD SEASONAL TEMPS ARE ON TAP.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

64/53

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Messages In This Thread
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - Shoshana - 07-26-2009, 12:40 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - Shoshana - 08-01-2009, 01:02 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - SpecialK - 08-02-2009, 07:02 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - Shoshana - 08-03-2009, 11:47 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - Shoshana - 08-20-2009, 03:19 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - Shoshana - 09-07-2009, 08:50 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-16-2009, 03:57 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-18-2009, 05:45 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-20-2009, 04:31 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-21-2009, 01:07 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-22-2009, 10:34 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-23-2009, 02:26 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-27-2009, 09:36 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-28-2009, 11:37 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-29-2009, 11:53 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-30-2009, 12:08 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-01-2009 10:46 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-02-2009, 01:01 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-04-2009, 08:31 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-05-2009, 01:30 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-06-2009, 10:53 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-07-2009, 12:39 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-08-2009, 03:17 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-21-2009, 03:01 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-24-2009, 02:08 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-25-2009, 03:22 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-27-2009, 12:25 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-31-2009, 02:11 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-16-2009, 04:08 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-18-2009, 09:10 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-20-2009, 09:21 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-21-2009, 10:34 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-22-2009, 07:57 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-24-2009, 06:29 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-01-2009, 05:02 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-01-2009, 02:55 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-02-2009, 07:12 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-03-2009, 08:29 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-09-2009, 10:22 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-16-2009, 12:10 AM

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