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Austin, TX Local Weather thread
09-22-2009, 10:34 AM
Post: #15
Austin, TX Local Weather thread
000
FXUS64 KEWX 221512
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1012 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.UPDATE...
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT GENERALLY THRU THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG
THE ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE GUST FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE/COASTAL PLAINS. CONVECTION TAPERING OFF
OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE HAVE THE
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY URBAN
OR SMALL STREAM ADVISORIES FOR THIS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN
THE FASTER MOVEMENT/DURATION. 12Z PW AT KCRP WAS WELL OVER TWO
INCHES...HOWEVER DEEPENING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY CUT OFF THE INFLOW OF THE TROPICAL AIR AND FOCUS THE
HEAVIER RAINS TO THE SOUTH EAST TOWARD THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.

INCREASED THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A CATEGORY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT HIGHER WIND SPEEDS THAN THE
ADVERTISED 10 TO 15 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE
ATTAINABLE AND WILL NOT ADJUST YET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT ALONG A KDRT TO KSAT TO KARM LINE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. AN AREA OF NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE RA AT
KAUS, KSAT, AND KSSF THROUGH 21Z WHEN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THOSE AREAS. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN RISE TO VFR. NLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL HELP DRAW THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY TODAY. THE 4 AM POSITION OF THE PREFRONTAL ROUND OF STORMS
WAS BEARING DOWN ON THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH NEAR CONTINUOUS
COVERAGE FOR AREAS EAST OF JCT. WHILE SOME STORMS SHOWED A
POTENTIAL TO APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT, THE
MORNING TIMING APPEARS TO FAVOR NON-SEVERE STORMS. BEHIND THE
COMPLEX, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE PUNCHED THROUGH THE
SJT AREA AND SHOULD CATCH UP TO THE RAINS, PUSHING THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON. THIS MEANS HIGH
TEMPS FOR TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED, WITH
SOME AREAS SEEING A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS PERSISTENT THAN THE MORNING ROUND OF RAINS. SOME
HEAVY MENTION WAS LEFT IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF I-35. THE HEAVY RAIN FOCUS SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM OCEAN WATERS
INTERACT WITH THE SHALLOW FRONT.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE ECMWF STILL KEEPS SIGNIFICANT RAIN
OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AREA, BUT THE DRIER GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS LOOK
MORE PRACTICAL DUE TO THE GULF INFLUENCE. NEVERTHELESS A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
IMPACTS OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY SURFACE TROUGHING FEATURE ALONG
THE COAST, KEEPING WINDS MOSTLY FROM THE NE. A TRANSITION DAY IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT STILL CAPABLE OF GENERATING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. A SEASONAL AND DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT MODELS KEEP THE PASSING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSIVE, AND WEAK IMPULSES COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 59 79 63 81 / 70 40 20 30 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 78 59 79 62 82 / 70 40 30 30 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 78 60 79 62 81 / 70 40 30 30 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 55 76 61 78 / 60 30 20 20 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 61 80 62 83 / 40 20 20 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 57 79 61 80 / 70 30 20 30 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 78 59 79 60 80 / 70 30 20 30 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 60 79 61 80 / 70 40 30 30 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 79 64 79 65 83 / 80 50 40 40 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 60 79 63 81 / 70 40 30 30 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 79 61 79 63 82 / 70 40 30 30 30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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Messages In This Thread
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - Shoshana - 07-26-2009, 12:40 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - Shoshana - 08-01-2009, 01:02 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - SpecialK - 08-02-2009, 07:02 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - Shoshana - 08-03-2009, 11:47 PM
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Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-16-2009, 03:57 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-18-2009, 05:45 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-20-2009, 04:31 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-21-2009, 01:07 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-22-2009 10:34 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-23-2009, 02:26 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-27-2009, 09:36 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-28-2009, 11:37 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-29-2009, 11:53 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-30-2009, 12:08 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-01-2009, 10:46 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-02-2009, 01:01 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-04-2009, 08:31 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-05-2009, 01:30 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-06-2009, 10:53 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-07-2009, 12:39 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-08-2009, 03:17 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-21-2009, 03:01 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-24-2009, 02:08 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-25-2009, 03:22 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-27-2009, 12:25 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-31-2009, 02:11 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-16-2009, 04:08 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-18-2009, 09:10 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-20-2009, 09:21 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-21-2009, 10:34 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-22-2009, 07:57 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-24-2009, 06:29 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-01-2009, 05:02 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-01-2009, 02:55 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-02-2009, 07:12 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-03-2009, 08:29 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-09-2009, 10:22 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-16-2009, 12:10 AM

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