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Austin, TX Local Weather thread
09-21-2009, 01:07 PM
Post: #14
Austin, TX Local Weather thread
000
FXUS64 KEWX 211705
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1205 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

.AVIATION...
WARM SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
QUICKLY BECOMING VFR ALL AREAS. THE SWLY BREEZES WERE OCCURRING AHEAD
OF THE DRY LINE IN WEST TX AND A COLD FRONT IN NW TX. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS SE OF KSAT AND ALONG THE DRY LINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR KDRT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SWD TONIGHT AND MOVE TO NEAR KDRT-50NW KSAT-25W KAUS LINE BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP 05Z-07Z AS GULF
MOISTURE FEEDS INTO S CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT UNCERTAIN
MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD AS FAR WEST TO KDRT. SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD ACROSS S CENTRAL TX
TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION VARIABLE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN THE SHRA/TSRA TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW TSRA COULD APPROACH SEVERE
BY 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/

UPDATE...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH LUBBOCK AND WILL
CONTINUE ITS TREK SOUTHWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID-90S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO BORDERLINE SEVERE STORM LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
APPROACHED THE HILL COUNTRY. NO UPDATES NECESSARY TO ONGOING
FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/

AVIATION...
PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS 010-025BKN STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING AROUND 16Z, OTHERWISE VFR SKIES 035-060SCT-BKN
STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED AND WILL ONLY MENTION CB AT THE
TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON IMPACTS WITHIN THE VCNTY. AREAS
OF STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CIGS
010-025BKN. S TO SE WINDS 4 TO 14 KTS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS. ISOLATED DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS UP TO NEAR 45 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR TSRA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
HILL COUNTRY TO EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AFTER 10Z.
THERE ARE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST OF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
WILL MENTION PROB30S AT KAUS AND KDRT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NLY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE TAF SITES AND THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE LOADING OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS
EVENING. ANY SPECIFIC THREAT AREA WOULD BE HARD TO PIN DOWN AT
THIS TIME. A PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND JET STREAK WILL
BRIEFLY BRING A MID-LEVEL INTRUSION OF DRY AND STABLE AIR INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TX TODAY. THIS SHOULD RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S AND SET UP A POSSIBLE DRYLINE FEATURE OVER THE
AREA. A SIMILAR FEATURE PRODUCED ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU SUNDAY EVENING.

A LARGE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN APPROACHING
FRONT AND POSSIBLY SET UP A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OR MCS FEATURE LATE
TONIGHT OVER WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL TX; THIS FEATURE COULD
BRING A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, BUT THE FEATURE IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO STAY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

TUESDAY INTO EXTENDED...COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL MAKE FOR
UNSTABLE WEATHER MUCH OF THIS WEEK AND A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX ON TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SE FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY MID-WEEK. MODELS HAVE
PREVIOUSLY BEEN ADVERTISING A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WITH 10-15
DEGREE DROPS IN TEMPS FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, RECENT TRENDS HAVE THE TROUGH FAILING TO MOVE AS FAR
SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, AND THIS COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS TRENDS BACKED OFF THE
PREVIOUSLY COOLER LOWS FOR WED/THURS MORNINGS, AND THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE FOLLOWED THE TREND AT LEAST PARTIALLY. MEANWHILE NAM
MODEL CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A PERSISTENT COASTAL
TROUGH PATTERN OVER SOUTH TX IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
EXPECTED SCENARIO IS REINFORCED BY TRENDS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
WHICH COULD BE INVIGORATED LATER THIS WEEK BY AN APPROACHING JET
STREAK CURRENTLY NEAR HAWAII.

A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR GENERALLY EAST OF HWY 281 FROM
THE TUESDAY FRONT AND POSSIBLY A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR MCS
ACTIVITY FROM EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX APPEARS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH
THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. THE EXPECTED COASTAL TROUGH FEATURE
SHOULD THEN FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL BEND FOR A COUPLE DAYS
WHILE STILL SENDING MOSTLY ELEVATED MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TX. THIS PATTERN SHOULD REINFORCE A LONGER PERIOD OF NE WINDS,
CLOUDY SKIES, AND INVERSION CHARACTERISTICS; THUS WILL LEAN COOLER
THAN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUS (SEE AFDCRP) ALONG THE COAST COULD REFOCUS
FARTHER INLAND LATER THIS WEEK IF THE SUBTROPICAL JET COMES IN
WITH EXTRA SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT COULD UNDERCUT THE SLOW DEPARTING
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH. RAIN CHANCE TRENDS ARE INCREASING FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

LATE IN THE WEEK, THE FARTHER NORTH TRENDS OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW HAS LEFT A WARMER FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND; THE PATTERN ALOFT
SHOULD BECOME MORE STABLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THIS WARMER,
DRIER PATTERN IS IN LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO INCREASING SIGNS OF
CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 80 65 81 66 / 40 70 50 20 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 81 65 81 64 / 30 70 50 30 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 82 65 82 65 / 30 70 50 30 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 76 61 79 62 / 40 60 30 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 84 63 83 65 / 20 30 20 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 79 63 80 63 / 40 60 40 20 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 83 64 82 64 / 20 50 40 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 81 65 82 64 / 30 70 50 30 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 83 67 80 67 / 30 70 60 40 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 82 66 82 67 / 20 60 50 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 83 66 82 65 / 20 60 50 30 40

&&

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Messages In This Thread
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - Shoshana - 07-26-2009, 12:40 AM
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Austin, TX Local Weather thread - SpecialK - 08-02-2009, 07:02 PM
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Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-23-2009, 02:26 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-27-2009, 09:36 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-28-2009, 11:37 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-29-2009, 11:53 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 09-30-2009, 12:08 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-01-2009, 10:46 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-02-2009, 01:01 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-04-2009, 08:31 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-05-2009, 01:30 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-06-2009, 10:53 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-07-2009, 12:39 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-08-2009, 03:17 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-21-2009, 03:01 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-24-2009, 02:08 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-25-2009, 03:22 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-27-2009, 12:25 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-31-2009, 02:11 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-16-2009, 04:08 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-18-2009, 09:10 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-20-2009, 09:21 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-21-2009, 10:34 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-22-2009, 07:57 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 11-24-2009, 06:29 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-01-2009, 05:02 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-01-2009, 02:55 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-02-2009, 07:12 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-03-2009, 08:29 AM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-09-2009, 10:22 PM
Austin, TX Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 12-16-2009, 12:10 AM

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