Spring Hill, Florida Area

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 281726
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
126 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING TO
BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA TODAY TO MOVE NWARD
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DROPS DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY PUSHING BACK DOWN TYPE FRONT INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. ALL FEATURES COMBINE FOR GENERALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTORMS TODAY TO MOVE EWARD AND WANE TONIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO AGAIN SEE PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT
TOWARDS MORNING. WITH MOISTURE LIMITED TO N FL THU ONLY EXPECT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH AROUND 30 POPS IN EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES AND
PARTLY-MOSTLY SKIES FURTHER SOUTH. WITH LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND
SUPPRESSION ALOFT EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS. ON
FRIDAY WITH FRONT IN THE AREA AND A BIT MOVE CLOUD COVER TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD WARM BUT BELOW RECORDS. NAM MOS POPS APPEAR TOO HIGH
AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND SE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MISS. RIVER VALLEY MON. THIS
TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL HELP A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE...ACROSS CENTRAL FL MON AND THEN SOUTH FL
TUE. A SURFACE HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RATHER QUICKLY
BRIDGE THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LATE SUN AND THEN
VEERING TO THE NE BY WED. THESE WINDS MAY BE RATHER ROBUST AT TIMES.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT TREND IN THE FORECAST...WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND GRADUALLY DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AS NOTED ABOVE THE FRONT IS WEAK AND SOME
DRIER AIR WORKS IN STARTING TUE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY DAYTIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH TO SSW WINDS WITH JUST LCL MVFR CIG. EXPECT THESE
TO LIFT TO VFR BUT VCSH/VCTS THROUGH THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG AND/OR
LOW CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MVFR 10Z-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT TO REMAIN WEAK NEXT FEW DAYS FOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND SEAS. W ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY FOR
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS FRI/SAT. BY SUNDAY THE FLOW TO WEAKEN
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
WITH NW FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 90 73 88 / 20 20 20 20
FMY 73 91 73 89 / 20 10 10 20
GIF 72 92 71 89 / 20 20 20 20
SRQ 73 89 74 88 / 20 20 20 20
BKV 69 91 69 88 / 20 20 20 20
SPG 74 89 74 87 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE