Spring Hill, Florida Area

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 271244
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
844 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2009

.UPDATE...WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW ROTATING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH TROF AXIS INTO THE W GULF. ASSOCIATED POTENT
CORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF PRODUCING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
N FL AND THE N GULF. 12Z SOUNDING FROM TBW SHOWING DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE TO SUMMER LIKE 2.22 OF PWATS IN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LI OF -5.4 AND CAPE OF 3781 USING A TEMP AROUND
FORECASTED WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS TODAY. WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER AND WARMING TEMPS...CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH END CHANCE POPS
AREAWIDE WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER LEVY COUNTY AND COASTAL
WATERS CLOSEST TO BEST DYNAMICS TODAY. LATEST GRIDS AND FORECAST SHOW
THIS WELL NO UPDATES NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
TERMINALS WHILE CONVECTION REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE ATTM. HAVE
MAINTAINED VFR WITH VICINITY SHRA STARTING AT 14Z AND TSRA AT
18-19Z...EXCEPT HAVE HAVE A BRIEF TEMPO MVFR LATE AFTERNOON.
SE TO SOUTH WINDS...AND ROBUST AT TIMES...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...5 MB GRADIENT OVER E GULF TO KEEP MODERATE SE-S WINDS
AND SEAS IN PLACE TODAY. LATEST BUOY REPORTS INDICATING WINDS
10-15 KTS NEAR SHORE AND 15-20 KTS WELL OFFSHORE SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE AS WELL. SCEC CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
OFFSHORE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS JUST BELOW HIGHLIGHTS NEAR SHORE.
LATEST FORECASTS ON TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 75 88 74 / 50 30 40 20
FMY 90 73 89 74 / 50 20 30 20
GIF 88 73 90 71 / 50 30 40 20
SRQ 87 74 88 73 / 50 30 40 20
BKV 87 72 89 70 / 50 40 40 20
SPG 87 76 88 77 / 50 30 40 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...25/DAVIS
AVIATION...09/RUDE