Spring Hill, Florida Area

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 051731
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
131 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ALOFT NORTH AMERICA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON - ONE LOW IS
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES - RIDGING REACHES FROM THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS - AND A SECOND LOW IS OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES RIDGES SOUTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY - A LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCING SOUTH TO TX AND THEN
EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST - AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
EXTENDS OVER FL TO THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD
...GENERALLY PROVIDING WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING INTO THE EAST GULF TONIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUE
WILL ADD ENOUGH ENERGY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
TUE WITH POPS 50-40-30 TONIGHT AND 50-40 TUE...FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

AFTER TUE...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES EAST THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ALLOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...
INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTH FL...TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TO CENTRAL FL BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WEST AND SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO SW TO SE AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES BY AND HELPS TO MAINTAIN
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION DESPITE THE UPPER
RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THEY
WILL DIP A DEGREES OR TWO FOR TONIGHT AND TUE BEFORE WARMING WED.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...OVERALL MID TO LATE WEEK
RIDGING PATTERN TO CONTINUE WHILE MODELS HAVING CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION THEN SLOWLY
MOVES EAST INTO THE W ATLANTIC SUN/MON AS FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN TO THE N KEEPING E THEN SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT EXPECTED ONLY ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA
BREEZE INTERACTIONS EACH DAY IF AND WHEN THE CAP BREAKS INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL
NEARING RECORDS MAINLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVING HARD TIME WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT WITH SOME BLASTING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUN/MON AND
SOME NOT EVEN MAKING IT TO THE FL PENINSULA BY WED. IT ALL DEPENDS
ON STRENGTH OF FAST GREAT LAKES TROF DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. SO
WILL KEEP GENERIC CLIMO END OF EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA THIS EVENING...OVERNIGHT AND THRU TUESDAY
MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS NEAR THE COAST MAINLY AROUND THE
TAMPA BAY AREA NWARD.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTH TUESDAY...REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA MIDWEEK...AND THEN
NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONT MAY APPROACH SATURDAY
AND SHIFT THE RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTH. WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES STAY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 89 76 91 / 40 40 20 30
FMY 75 91 75 93 / 30 20 20 30
GIF 73 91 73 93 / 30 50 20 30
SRQ 73 88 73 91 / 40 20 20 30
BKV 70 89 70 91 / 40 50 20 30
SPG 78 88 78 90 / 40 20 20 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...25/DAVIS