Spring Hill, Florida Area

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | [url=jwindow.print()]Print[/url] | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

000
FXUS62 KTBW 301337
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
937 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT BOUNDARY NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE PENINSULA. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LEE
COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL
EXTEND ISOLD/20 POPS FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS.

DIRER AIR SHOULD THEN TAKE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BRING EVEN
COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT...WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND
NEAR 60 AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER CHANGES
ARE REQUIRED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR
IS FINALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING CHARLOTTE COUNTY NOW...AND THERE IS
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE
SHOWERS TEND TO DRY UP AS THEY APPROACH LAND...BUT ARE QUITE HEAVY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE WEST OF BOCA GRANDE AND CAPTIVA.

BY SUNRISE...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PASSING THROUGH LEE COUNTY
AND THE SHOWERS PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH. AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE WITH US FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WHICH IS LIKELY
TO DIM THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH AND MID 80S CENTRAL
AND SOUTH.

IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE
COOLEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
LIKELY FROM LEVY COUNTY SOUTH TO INTERIOR PASCO COUNTY. MIDDLE
50S TO AROUND 60 WILL BE COMMON OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR.
EXPECT THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
LEE COUNTY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 70...BUT IT WILL BE DRY AND STILL
FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY...TAKING
THE COOL AIR ALONG WITH IT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL START OUR
MODERATING TREND...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY. I STILL EXPECT MOST PLACES TO FALL SHORT OF 90
DEGREES...BUT IT COULD GET CLOSE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK BACK INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS BEFORE MORNING. IT WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND MAINLY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY. OUR FRIENDLY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE MOST OF THE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOST OF OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS DRY AND COOLER AIR DESCEND UPON THE STATE TODAY
AND REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...AR
SHORT TERM...EJ
AVIATION...PRC