Spring Hill, Florida Area
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09-30-2009, 12:07 PM
Post: #939
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Spring Hill, Florida Area
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | [url=jwindow.print()]Print[/url] | Product List | Glossary Off Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 000 FXUS62 KTBW 301337 AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 937 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2009 .DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT BOUNDARY NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LEE COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL EXTEND ISOLD/20 POPS FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. DIRER AIR SHOULD THEN TAKE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BRING EVEN COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT...WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND NEAR 60 AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE REQUIRED ATTM. .PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS FINALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING CHARLOTTE COUNTY NOW...AND THERE IS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE SHOWERS TEND TO DRY UP AS THEY APPROACH LAND...BUT ARE QUITE HEAVY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE WEST OF BOCA GRANDE AND CAPTIVA. BY SUNRISE...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PASSING THROUGH LEE COUNTY AND THE SHOWERS PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH. AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE WITH US FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WHICH IS LIKELY TO DIM THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH AND MID 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE COOLEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LIKELY FROM LEVY COUNTY SOUTH TO INTERIOR PASCO COUNTY. MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL BE COMMON OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. EXPECT THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO LEE COUNTY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 70...BUT IT WILL BE DRY AND STILL FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY...TAKING THE COOL AIR ALONG WITH IT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL START OUR MODERATING TREND...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. I STILL EXPECT MOST PLACES TO FALL SHORT OF 90 DEGREES...BUT IT COULD GET CLOSE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK BACK INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE MORNING. IT WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND MAINLY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY. OUR FRIENDLY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE MOST OF THE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS DRY AND COOLER AIR DESCEND UPON THE STATE TODAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THURSDAY. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...AR SHORT TERM...EJ AVIATION...PRC Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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