Spring Hill, Florida Area
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09-28-2009, 11:38 AM
Post: #936
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Spring Hill, Florida Area
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FXUS62 KTBW 281251 CCA AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 850 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009 .DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT BOUNDARY DEPICTED IN LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS AS BASICALLY STALLING BETWEEN SARASOTA AND THE TAMPA BAY AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME ISOLATED CELLS REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND NEAR NAPLES. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HAVE A HARD TIME IN INITIATING CONVECTION WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS ALREADY FILTERING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. 20/30 POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FROM MANATEE DOWN TO LEE COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED ATTM. .PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE DAY DUE TO MIXING. THIS MAKES THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT...BUT WITH SO MUCH DRY AIR ALREADY WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...FEEL BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND MAINLY OVER LAND WITH HEATING TODAY. THIS WOULD FAVOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES...SO WILL FORECAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THERE. NORTH OF THERE...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THEN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. IT WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH HIGHS STILL AROUND 90 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE FRONT LOSES ITS IDENTITY TONIGHT AS A SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE STOLEN MUCH OF THE MOISTURE...SO ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY. OVERALL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE THAT MANY AREAS WILL HAVE A TRACE OF RAIN. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT BASED ON THE VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE...WILL LEAVE SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S FOR THE NATURE COAST...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 60S OVER OUR INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES. THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE 70S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE GET AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...BUT COULD EASILY REACH 90 DEGREES OR SO...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH. IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE COOLER DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY AS WE START THE DAY IN THE MIDDLE 50S OVER THE NATURE COAST...TO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE NATURE COAST...BUT STILL REACH THE MID 80S AROUND THE BAY AND EVEN SOME UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP OVER FMY AND RSW THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DIPS SOUTH...BUT OTHERWISE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN DRY. LESS CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. && .MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. TONIGHT...WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOTS RANGE AS A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THEN DIRECTIONS SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. IN GENERAL...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL START DECREASING ON TUESDAY...AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MAY BRING DEWPOINTS DROPPING FASTER THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH BECOMES NECESSARY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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