Spring Hill, Florida Area

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 221314 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
910 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2009

CORRECTED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...DEEP MID-UL NORTHERLY FLOW SHOWS UP AGAIN ON THE 12Z TBW
SOUNDING. TODAY THAT FLOW HAS EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS DEPICTED
IN THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING AND IS STARTING TO SHOW IN THE 1Z EYW
SOUNDING. A MODERATE LL EASTERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE
SEA BREEZE FORMATION. EXPECTING ANOTHER BRIEF AND WEAK SEA BREEZE
TO FORM AND SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD...STRUGGLING TO REACH I 75. WITH
THE MID LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SCATTERED ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE. WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED POPS IN LEVY COUNTY TO 30%
AS THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FURTHER
TO THE SURFACE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM MID AFTERNOON (AFTER 20Z) THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN BY MID
EVENING TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BUT GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 92 75 91 75 / 50 20 40 20
FMY 91 76 92 75 / 50 20 40 20
GIF 93 74 92 75 / 40 20 40 20
SRQ 91 75 90 74 / 50 20 40 20
BKV 91 73 91 73 / 40 20 40 20
SPG 90 78 90 78 / 50 20 40 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20/BARRON
AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL