Central Florida

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 061250
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
850 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2009

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT SFC CHART STILL SHOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS THAT HAVE TRAVERSED OUR GULF WATERS AND ARE STARTING TO
PUSH INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM PINELLAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
CITRUS COUNTY. FLOW OVER LAND IS CURRENTLY VRB BUT MESO MODELS DO
SHOW A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY.
WITH THAT...WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS FURTHER INLAND. 12Z
SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SFC TO AROUND 650MB SO THAT SHOULD KEEP THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
CLOSE THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION TO REACH OUR CWA. SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED SOME
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS BUT WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A
SLIGHT CAP AROUND 700MB.



&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUE TO EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT SHRA MOVING INLAND WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION.


&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON. NO MARINE CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON OTHER THAN
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND PUSHING INLAND
UNDER THE WESTERLY FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 76 92 76 / 40 20 30 20
FMY 92 76 94 74 / 30 20 30 20
GIF 92 74 94 74 / 50 20 30 20
SRQ 89 75 91 75 / 30 20 30 20
BKV 90 71 92 71 / 50 20 30 20
SPG 89 78 91 79 / 30 20 30 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...20/BARRON
AVIATION...25/DAVIS