Search
Member List
Calendar
Help
|
NE Georgia Mountain Weather
|
|
10-04-2009, 08:37 AM
Post: #9
|
|||
|
|||
|
NE Georgia Mountain Weather
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | [url=jwindow.print()]Print[/url] | Product List | Glossary Off Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 000 FXUS62 KFFC 040919 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 520 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2009 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A RATHER COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH GEORGIA WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA IN AN EASTERLY FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF OLAF...WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE CWA. THIS IS ALREADY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER TX/LA/AR. GFS IS THE FASTEST IN BRINGING THE PRECIP INTO WESTERN GA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM/SREF HOLD THE PRECIP TO OUR WEST UNTIL AFTER 00Z. BASED ON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING AND WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE GFS ON POPS THIS AFTERNOON. TO COMPLICATE THINGS...THE SURFACE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH US HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTHEAST GA WESTWARD TO SOUTHERN TX. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AND MOVES ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS SETTING UP FOR AN OVERRUNNING EVENT AND IT APPEARS THE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS PUTTING THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER NORTH GA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. QPF OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTH GA LOOKS GOOD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL GA. CENTRAL GA APPEARS TO HAVE DRIED OUT ENOUGH AND 1 TO 2 INCHES SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...HOWEVER NORTH OF THE FALL LINE IS WHERE THE PROBLEMS WILL LIE AND WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FALL LINE. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GRIDDED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. AT THE ONSET DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RATHER STABLE...HOWEVER GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NAM ARE SHOWING NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDEX VALUES ACROSS WESTERN GA AND WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MONDAY TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER GOING ALL AREAS. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THIS WILL DIMINISH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE TODAY...HOWEVER WITH AN EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP ON TUESDAY. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF. ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT ON WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE MOVES QUICKLY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THEN OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE WESTERN US AS THE H5 HIGH HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL KEEP THE CWA IN A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS SHORT WAVE LIFTS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE CWA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z. INCREASING MOISTURE DEEPENS SUFFICIENTLY FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN ACROSS WEST GEORGIA AFTER 00Z. AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 76 55 60 54 72 / 30 100 80 30 30 ATLANTA 75 55 61 54 72 / 50 100 80 20 40 BLAIRSVILLE 65 52 57 49 69 / 30 100 70 30 40 CARTERSVILLE 73 54 60 54 73 / 50 100 70 20 40 COLUMBUS 79 61 66 63 77 / 50 90 90 20 40 GAINESVILLE 71 55 60 53 70 / 40 100 70 30 30 MACON 78 60 64 61 77 / 30 90 90 20 40 ROME 67 56 62 55 73 / 60 100 70 20 40 PEACHTREE CITY 75 56 62 54 71 / 50 100 90 20 40 VIDALIA 81 61 72 64 81 / 10 60 80 30 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS... CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON... COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN... FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GREENE... GWINNETT...HALL...HAN****...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY... JACKSON...JASPER...JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON... MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON... OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK... PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT... TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON... WARREN...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES. && $$ 17
Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
|||
|
|
« Next Oldest | Next Newest »
|
User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)