NE Georgia Mountain Weather

[warwoman]

I guess if there are running weather reports from other members,why not one from the mountains where I live?
Slow,steady soaking rain right now,but it's supposed to drop into the high 40's in the morning on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Fall color report- mountain color a late summer,"tired" dull green. dogwoods showing color,and just a spot of color up in higher elevations of Highlands/Cashiers,NC area.
Pumpkins are in,and ate the last watermelon of the season a week ago.

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00
FXUS62 KFFC 281450
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1050 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

.UPDATE...
FOR THE MOST PART...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OKAY. SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...WINDS AND SKY TO CATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEEPENS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
TIMING...PUTTING THE FRONT IN NORTHWEST CORNER OF GA BETWEEN 15Z
AND 17Z. LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
CWA BEHIND THIS FRONT. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED AND HAVE REMOVED
POPS FROM THE NORTHERN ZONES. EXPECTING MAINLY SOME CLOUDINESS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE BORDERLINE FOR A
WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MAV/MET TEMPERATURE BLEND LOOKS
OKAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GA REMAINS UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT SHOULD AFFECT THE CWA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. MODELS SEEM TO DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAY
GO INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY
FOR CENTRAL ZONES.

AVIATION...
DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING SCT-BKN 4-5KFT TO
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...AND SCT 4-5KFT TO MCN AND CSG. SKC AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...PROBABLY AROUND SUNSET OR SO. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AGAIN TODAY...SUSTAINED 12-14KT WITH GUSTS
ANYWHERE FROM 18-22KT. SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AROUND OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 51 76 48 77 / 10 5 0 5 5
ATLANTA 79 54 72 50 75 / 10 0 0 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 73 43 69 45 73 / 10 10 5 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 79 45 74 44 75 / 10 5 5 5 5
COLUMBUS 85 58 80 52 80 / 5 0 0 5 5
GAINESVILLE 80 50 74 50 74 / 10 5 5 5 5
MACON 87 54 80 49 79 / 0 0 0 5 5
ROME 82 48 76 48 77 / 10 5 5 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 81 49 74 45 77 / 5 0 0 5 5
VIDALIA 88 58 80 49 79 / 0 0 0 5 5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

49

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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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-- Highlight Changed Discussion -- -- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --

000
FXUS62 KGSP 301436
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1036 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE BROAD RIDGE SINKS
SOUTH...UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES SHOULD WEAKEN.
UPSLOPE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO RETREAT AROUND NOON...LEAVING ONLY A
THIN BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND FEW MTN TOP CU.
ELSEWHERE...SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COMPARE CLOSELY TO YESTERDAY/S VALUES.

ANOTHER CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT ON TAP AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL BANK OF SKIES REMAINING CLEAR
ENUF FOR HIGH MTN VALLEYS TO BE ABLE TO RADIATE DOWN TO WHERE FROST
DEVELOPMENT BECOMES PROBABLE. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...IT IS A ABOUT A 70
PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT THE FIRST FROST OCCURS BY OCTOBER 1ST ACRS
THESE AREAS.-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...THU STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY NICE FALL DAY
AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF THE SE COAST. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH
TEMPS RUNNING AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON FRI THE NAM
AND GFS BRING A PREFRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION INTO THE MTNS BY LATE
IN THE DAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS THAT DEVELOPS
THU NIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS
THEY ENTER THE MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE SE STATES...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS IMPLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT I DID ADD THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE MTNS FRI NIGHT AS THE INITIAL FORCING LIFTS TO THE NORTH
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...DELAYING
FROPA. THE SREF HAS HIGH RAIN CHANCES FRI NGHT. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH
MAINTAIN LLVL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF PCPN AS WELL. I/VE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CAT OVER THE MTNS
AND WRN NC FOOTHILLS AND HIGH CHANCE ELSEWHERE. I IMAGINE POPS WILL
BE RAISED FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...THE NEW NAM HAS A SHORT WAVE OVER WRN TN
AND THE SFC FRONT STILL OVER NE GA AT 12 UTC SAT...IMPLYING A FAIRLY
WET DAY FOR SAT...THOUGH THAT/S WHERE THE MODEL RUN STOPS. THE GFS
IS SIMILAR IN THAT IT PUSHES THE INITIAL BAND OF PCPN INTO THE FA
FRI AFTN...BUT IT THEN SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DROPS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF...INCREASING PVA OVER
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE OLD RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS FASTER...AND
THE LATEST SREF IMPLIES THAT THE PCPN WILL BE RATHER EAST THAN THE
NAM. I/M A LITTLE SUSPICIOUS OF THE NAM...SO I/LL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH HAS GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE
MORNING...WITH DRYING SAT AFTN.

THE WEATHER LOOKS GREAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
QUICKLY INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...REPLACED BY A BROAD RIDGE. SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THE FLOW
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL AND STRONGER BY TUE. THE OLD ECMWF
HAS SUFFICIENT LLVL WARM ADVECTION ON TUE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF
PCPN. THE GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE RIDING AND IS THEREFORE DRIER WITH
WEAKER WAA. I/VE BUMPED POPS UP A LITTLE ON TUE AS A NOD TO THE
EC...BUT THAT STILL LEAVE THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING TO GIVE WAY TO A FEW HIGH BASED CU
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FLATTEN AND PERHAPS LINGER INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NW...AND INCREASE TO ABT 8 KTS
BY MIDDAY BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.

ACRS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS...CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH NW WINDS
INCREASING...PERHAPS BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN AT KAVL...BUT COULD REMAIN
VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 6 KTS AT KGSP THANKS TO LEE TROUGH. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW AREAS OF MTN VALLEY FOG TO FORM.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TJB
NEAR TERM...NED/CSH
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...CSH

[warwoman]

Great weather reports,Roll. Thanks much.

BTW,it was absolutely beautiful yesterday and today,with the low on my porch this morning at 48 degrees. It was especially beautiful on the golf course yesterday.

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When you get some snow let me know and I will plan a snow chase

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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 040919
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
520 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2009

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RATHER COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH GEORGIA WILL SHIFT
TO OUR EAST PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA IN AN EASTERLY FLOW. AT THE SAME
TIME...MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF OLAF...WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
THE CWA. THIS IS ALREADY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER TX/LA/AR. GFS IS THE FASTEST IN BRINGING THE
PRECIP INTO WESTERN GA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM/SREF HOLD THE
PRECIP TO OUR WEST UNTIL AFTER 00Z. BASED ON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD...THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING AND WILL
STICK CLOSER TO THE GFS ON POPS THIS AFTERNOON. TO COMPLICATE
THINGS...THE SURFACE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH US HAS BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTHEAST GA WESTWARD TO SOUTHERN TX. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AND MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS SETTING UP FOR AN OVERRUNNING EVENT AND IT
APPEARS THE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS PUTTING THE HEAVIEST QPF
OVER NORTH GA. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. QPF OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTH GA LOOKS
GOOD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL GA. CENTRAL GA APPEARS TO HAVE
DRIED OUT ENOUGH AND 1 TO 2 INCHES SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOODING
PROBLEMS...HOWEVER NORTH OF THE FALL LINE IS WHERE THE PROBLEMS WILL
LIE AND WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR THE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FALL LINE. THIS
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GRIDDED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. AT THE
ONSET DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RATHER
STABLE...HOWEVER GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NAM ARE SHOWING NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDEX VALUES ACROSS WESTERN GA AND WILL ADD ISOLATED
THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MONDAY TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDER GOING ALL AREAS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...SOME WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THIS
WILL DIMINISH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN.

TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE TODAY...HOWEVER WITH AN EAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT WARM UP ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF. ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE MOVES QUICKLY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THEN
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE WESTERN US AS THE H5 HIGH HOLDS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL KEEP THE CWA IN A WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS THIS SHORT WAVE LIFTS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER
FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE CWA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z. INCREASING MOISTURE
DEEPENS SUFFICIENTLY FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN ACROSS WEST GEORGIA
AFTER 00Z. AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE...MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. INSTABILITY REMAINS
MARGINAL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 76 55 60 54 72 / 30 100 80 30 30
ATLANTA 75 55 61 54 72 / 50 100 80 20 40
BLAIRSVILLE 65 52 57 49 69 / 30 100 70 30 40
CARTERSVILLE 73 54 60 54 73 / 50 100 70 20 40
COLUMBUS 79 61 66 63 77 / 50 90 90 20 40
GAINESVILLE 71 55 60 53 70 / 40 100 70 30 30
MACON 78 60 64 61 77 / 30 90 90 20 40
ROME 67 56 62 55 73 / 60 100 70 20 40
PEACHTREE CITY 75 56 62 54 71 / 50 100 90 20 40
VIDALIA 81 61 72 64 81 / 10 60 80 30 30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...
COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...
FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HALL...HAN****...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...
JACKSON...JASPER...JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...
WARREN...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

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