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Spring Hill, Florida Area
09-30-2009, 10:27 PM
Post: #941
Spring Hill, Florida Area
September 2009 Observations for Month:
Average Daytime High was 90.0° F (Normal)
Average Overnight Low was 73.1° F (3.9° above normal)
Average Mean was 81.55° (1.9° above normal)

Highest Daytime Temperature was 96° on September 12
"Coolest" Overnight Low Temperature was 62° on September 30

Coolest Maximum High was 81° on September 30
Warmest Minimum Low was 76° on September 17, 23

Total Rainfall = 8.64" (1.90" above normal).

Total Rainfall for Year = 47.13" (42.40" since May)

Record Monthly High is 98° recently occurring in 2004
Record Monthly Low is 48° occurring in 1981
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10-01-2009, 10:44 AM
Post: #942
Spring Hill, Florida Area
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 011302
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
900 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...QUIET MORNING SO FAR WEATHERWISE. LOWS ACROSS THE AREA
WENT A LITTLE FURTHER DOWN THAN FORECASTED WITH TAMPA INTERNATIONAL
HITTING 61...BROOKSVILLE FAWN 47 AND SARASOTA/BRADENTON INTL 62.
DRY AND COOLER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH GRADUALLY MIGRATES EASTWARD...WITH WEAK N/NE FLOW PREVAILING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE NW ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY AND ALLOWS FOR WINDS
TO BEGIN VEERING TO THE S/SW AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE SE
STATES. THIS WILL MODIFY THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH
WARMER AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
REQUIRED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST...MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE COME AROUND TO YESTERDAYS ECMWF SOLUTION OF
KEEPING THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS REQUIRES
CUTTING WAY BACK ON OUR RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
NATURE COAST FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS OVER CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THEY WILL STAY DRY.

FRIDAY NIGHT A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH DIG
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...BUT THE TROUGH REMAINS
FLATTENED WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND FLORIDA. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO ABOUT THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO LOSE
IDENTITY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER LEVY COUNTY
WHERE ONSHORE WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY COULD BRING ALL DAY
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY AS YOU
HEAD SOUTH TOWARD THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE CHANGED SO DRASTICALLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND 1 TO 2
FEET. AN EVENING SURGE IS POSSIBLE AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO A MORE
S/SW FLOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...BUT SO FAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLY AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. DRIEST
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF HERNANDO...PASCO
AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES AS WELL AS MUCH OF POLK COUNTY. SOUTHERN
SUMTER WILL LIKELY BE QUITE DRY AS WELL. THE AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO KEEP HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...AR
SHORT TERM...EJ
AVIATION...PRC

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10-02-2009, 01:01 PM
Post: #943
Spring Hill, Florida Area
...

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10-03-2009, 01:21 PM
Post: #944
Spring Hill, Florida Area
October 1, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 82° F
Overnight Low was 58° F
Mean Temperature was 70° F

Average Daytime High is 88° F
Average Overnight Low is 65° F
Average Mean for date 76.5° F

Record High is 94° in 1989
Record Low is 53° in 2001

100% Sunshine

Dewpoints in the low 50's

Winds north/northeast at 5-10 mph

Forecast for Friday the 2nd:
Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming southwest between 4 and 7 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 62. Calm wind.
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10-03-2009, 01:22 PM
Post: #945
Spring Hill, Florida Area
October 2, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 84° F
Overnight Low was 62° F
Mean Temperature was 73° F

Average Daytime High is 87° F
Average Overnight Low is 65° F
Average Mean for date 76° F

Record High is 95° in 1988
Record Low is 49° in 2001

A lot more clouds (mid to high level) with some sun

Winds were north/northeast at 5-10 mph.

Dewpoints in the low 50's

Forecast for Saturday the 3rd:
Today: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 87. West wind between 5 and 7 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Light north northeast wind.
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10-04-2009, 08:28 AM
Post: #946
Spring Hill, Florida Area
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 041227
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
827 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL TODAY. HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE FRONT WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY
WHILE THE RIDGE MAINTAINS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
MOISTENED SOME FROM YESTERDAY BUT IT IS STILL RATHER LIMITED AND
CONTINUES FAIRLY STABLE. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS REASONABLE. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PROVIDE SE AND
SOUTH WINDS 5-10KT THROUGH TODAY. NEXT FORECAST OUT AFTER 930 AM
WITHOUT CHANGE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...09/RUDE
AVIATION...25/DAVIS

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10-05-2009, 01:34 PM
Post: #947
Spring Hill, Florida Area
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 051731
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
131 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ALOFT NORTH AMERICA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON - ONE LOW IS
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES - RIDGING REACHES FROM THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS - AND A SECOND LOW IS OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES RIDGES SOUTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY - A LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCING SOUTH TO TX AND THEN
EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST - AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
EXTENDS OVER FL TO THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD
...GENERALLY PROVIDING WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING INTO THE EAST GULF TONIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUE
WILL ADD ENOUGH ENERGY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
TUE WITH POPS 50-40-30 TONIGHT AND 50-40 TUE...FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

AFTER TUE...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES EAST THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ALLOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...
INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTH FL...TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TO CENTRAL FL BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WEST AND SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO SW TO SE AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES BY AND HELPS TO MAINTAIN
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION DESPITE THE UPPER
RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THEY
WILL DIP A DEGREES OR TWO FOR TONIGHT AND TUE BEFORE WARMING WED.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...OVERALL MID TO LATE WEEK
RIDGING PATTERN TO CONTINUE WHILE MODELS HAVING CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION THEN SLOWLY
MOVES EAST INTO THE W ATLANTIC SUN/MON AS FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN TO THE N KEEPING E THEN SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT EXPECTED ONLY ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA
BREEZE INTERACTIONS EACH DAY IF AND WHEN THE CAP BREAKS INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL
NEARING RECORDS MAINLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVING HARD TIME WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT WITH SOME BLASTING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUN/MON AND
SOME NOT EVEN MAKING IT TO THE FL PENINSULA BY WED. IT ALL DEPENDS
ON STRENGTH OF FAST GREAT LAKES TROF DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. SO
WILL KEEP GENERIC CLIMO END OF EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA THIS EVENING...OVERNIGHT AND THRU TUESDAY
MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS NEAR THE COAST MAINLY AROUND THE
TAMPA BAY AREA NWARD.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTH TUESDAY...REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA MIDWEEK...AND THEN
NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONT MAY APPROACH SATURDAY
AND SHIFT THE RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTH. WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES STAY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 89 76 91 / 40 40 20 30
FMY 75 91 75 93 / 30 20 20 30
GIF 73 91 73 93 / 30 50 20 30
SRQ 73 88 73 91 / 40 20 20 30
BKV 70 89 70 91 / 40 50 20 30
SPG 78 88 78 90 / 40 20 20 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...25/DAVIS

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10-05-2009, 05:46 PM
Post: #948
Spring Hill, Florida Area
October 3, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 84° F
Overnight Low was 67° F
Mean Temperature was 75.5° F

Average Daytime High is 87° F
Average Overnight Low is 65° F
Average Mean for date 76° F

Record High is 94° in 1990
Record Low is 50° in 2001

Mostly Sunny

Dewpoints have risen to the low 60's

Winds northwest at 5-10 mph

Forecast for Sunday the 4th:
Today: A 20 percent chance of showers after 2 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming east between 5 and 8 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph.
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10-05-2009, 05:47 PM
Post: #949
Spring Hill, Florida Area
October 4, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 91° F
Overnight Low was 69° F
Mean Temperature was 80° F

Average Daytime High is 87° F
Average Overnight Low is 64° F
Average Mean for date 75.5° F

Record High is 97° in 1990
Record Low is 49° in 1974

Pt. Sunny

Dewpoints in the upper 60's as humidity increases

Winds east at 5-10 mph

Forecast for Monday the 5th:
Today...Partly sunny. A 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Highs near 90. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight...Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Lows in the lower 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph.
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10-06-2009, 10:51 AM
Post: #950
Spring Hill, Florida Area
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 061250
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
850 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2009

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT SFC CHART STILL SHOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS THAT HAVE TRAVERSED OUR GULF WATERS AND ARE STARTING TO
PUSH INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM PINELLAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
CITRUS COUNTY. FLOW OVER LAND IS CURRENTLY VRB BUT MESO MODELS DO
SHOW A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY.
WITH THAT...WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS FURTHER INLAND. 12Z
SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SFC TO AROUND 650MB SO THAT SHOULD KEEP THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
CLOSE THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION TO REACH OUR CWA. SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED SOME
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS BUT WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A
SLIGHT CAP AROUND 700MB.



&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUE TO EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT SHRA MOVING INLAND WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION.


&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON. NO MARINE CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON OTHER THAN
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND PUSHING INLAND
UNDER THE WESTERLY FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 76 92 76 / 40 20 30 20
FMY 92 76 94 74 / 30 20 30 20
GIF 92 74 94 74 / 50 20 30 20
SRQ 89 75 91 75 / 30 20 30 20
BKV 90 71 92 71 / 50 20 30 20
SPG 89 78 91 79 / 30 20 30 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...20/BARRON
AVIATION...25/DAVIS

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