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Spring Hill, Florida Area
09-26-2009, 09:44 PM
Post: #931
Spring Hill, Florida Area
September 24, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 90° F
Overnight Low was 74° F
Mean Temperature was 82° F

Average Daytime High is 89° F
Average Overnight Low is 67° F
Average Mean for date 78° F

Record High is 96° in 1991
Record Low is 58° in 1972

Pt. Sunny

Dewpoints in the low 70's

Winds east/southeast at 5-12 mph

Forecast for Friday the 25th:
Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 97. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
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09-26-2009, 09:45 PM
Post: #932
Spring Hill, Florida Area
September 25, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 90° F
Overnight Low was 75° F
Mean Temperature was 82.5° F

Average Daytime High is 89° F
Average Overnight Low is 67° F
Average Mean for date 78° F

Record High is 96° in 2003
Record Low is 59° in 1990

Pt. Sunny

Winds east at 5-10 mph

Dewpoints in the mid 70's

Light shower around noon, then shower with some thunder at 5:30 p.m. (just south of here much more rain)

Rain Amount = .20"

Forecast for Saturday the 26th:
Today: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. Southeast wind between 3 and 5 mph.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. West wind between 3 and 5 mph.
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09-26-2009, 09:47 PM
Post: #933
Spring Hill, Florida Area
September 26, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 90° F
Overnight Low was 73° F
Mean Temperature was 81.5° F

Average Daytime High is 89° F
Average Overnight Low is 67° F
Average Mean for date 78° F

Record High is 96° in 2003
Record Low is 60° in 1996

Pt. Sunny with some clouds from nearby showers late in the day

Winds south/southwest at 5-10 mph

Dewpoints in the mid 70's

Forecast for Sunday the 27th:
Sunday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. West wind between 5 and 7 mph.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. West wind around 9 mph.
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09-27-2009, 09:14 PM
Post: #934
Spring Hill, Florida Area
September 27, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 90° F
Overnight Low was 74° F
Mean Temperature was 82° F

Average Daytime High is 89° F
Average Overnight Low is 66° F
Average Mean for date 77.5° F

Record High is 94° in 1992
Record Low is 58° in 1982

Pt. Cloudy with some scattered showers around through morning, but none here.

Dewpoints in the mid 70's

Winds west/southwest at 5-12 mph

We have some drier air moving in and a cool front moving through by Tuesday the 29th, this is expected to drop dewpoints and cool off our nights for the first time in a long while.

Forecast for Monday the 28th:
Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. West northwest wind between 5 and 8 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 69. West wind around 8 mph
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09-27-2009, 09:37 PM
Post: #935
Spring Hill, Florida Area
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
905 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2009


...DRIER AIRMASS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION...

.UPDATE...SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE PENINSULA. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS
THIS FRONT ENTERING PINELLAS/HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. 00Z SOUNDING
SHOWED THAT THIS DRIER AIRMASS HAS YET TO REACH TBW (2.07" PWAT)
BUT WE CAN EXPECT THAT NUMBER TO DROP BY THE 12Z SOUNDING SINCE
SITES FURTHER UPSTREAM HAVE PWATS AT 1.10-1.15". CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK DEPICTING THE LOW RAIN FALL CHANCES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AND THE DROP IN TEMPS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
THE NEXT FROPA.
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09-28-2009, 11:38 AM
Post: #936
Spring Hill, Florida Area
000
FXUS62 KTBW 281251 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
850 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT BOUNDARY DEPICTED IN LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS
AS BASICALLY STALLING BETWEEN SARASOTA AND THE TAMPA BAY AREA. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME ISOLATED CELLS REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND NEAR NAPLES.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL HAVE A HARD TIME IN INITIATING CONVECTION WITH
A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS ALREADY FILTERING INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. 20/30 POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FROM MANATEE DOWN
TO LEE COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
REQUIRED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE
SEASON WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA TODAY...BUT IT WILL
BE VERY SHALLOW AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE DAY DUE TO
MIXING. THIS MAKES THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
DIFFICULT...BUT WITH SO MUCH DRY AIR ALREADY WELL ESTABLISHED IN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...FEEL BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND
MAINLY OVER LAND WITH HEATING TODAY. THIS WOULD FAVOR CHARLOTTE
AND LEE COUNTIES...SO WILL FORECAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THERE.
NORTH OF THERE...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THEN LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. IT WILL
STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH HIGHS STILL AROUND 90 DEGREES
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE FRONT LOSES ITS IDENTITY TONIGHT AS A SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE STOLEN MUCH OF THE MOISTURE...SO ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE LESS THAN 20
PERCENT...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE THAT MANY AREAS WILL
HAVE A TRACE OF RAIN. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH
THIS SCENARIO...BUT BASED ON THE VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE...WILL
LEAVE SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL FALL INTO THE MID
60S FOR THE NATURE COAST...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 60S OVER OUR
INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES. THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE
70S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE GET
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...BUT COULD EASILY REACH 90 DEGREES
OR SO...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH.

IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE COOLER DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON
WEDNESDAY AS WE START THE DAY IN THE MIDDLE 50S OVER THE NATURE
COAST...TO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE NATURE
COAST...BUT STILL REACH THE MID 80S AROUND THE BAY AND EVEN SOME
UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP OVER FMY AND RSW THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT DIPS SOUTH...BUT OTHERWISE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN DRY. LESS
CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
TONIGHT...WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOTS
RANGE AS A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
THEN DIRECTIONS SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. IN GENERAL...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT
CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL START
DECREASING ON TUESDAY...AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MAY BRING DEWPOINTS
DROPPING FASTER THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH BECOMES
NECESSARY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

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09-29-2009, 11:51 AM
Post: #937
Spring Hill, Florida Area
September 28, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 87° F
Overnight Low was 70° F
Mean Temperature was 78.5° F

Average Daytime High is 88° F
Average Overnight Low is 66° F
Average Mean for date 77.5° F

Record High is 95° in 1990
Record Low is 59° in 1991

Mostly Sunny

Dewpoints in the mid 60's

Winds northwest at 5-10 mph

Forecast for Tuesday the 29th:
Today: A slight chance of thunderstorms before 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 88. West northwest wind between 5 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. North northwest wind around 6 mph.
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09-30-2009, 07:26 AM
Post: #938
Spring Hill, Florida Area
September 29, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 88° F
Overnight Low was 71° F
Mean Temperature was 79.5° F

Average Daytime High is 88° F
Average Overnight Low is 66° F
Average Mean for date 77.5° F

Record High is 94° in 1991
Record Low is 57° in 1988

Mostly Sunny with some mid to high level clouds late

Dewpoints dropped from near 70° in the early morning hours to the low 60's

Winds north/northwest at 5-10 mph

Forecast for Wednesday the 30th:
Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. North northwest wind between 3 and 7 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 54. West northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm.
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09-30-2009, 12:07 PM
Post: #939
Spring Hill, Florida Area
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | [url=jwindow.print()]Print[/url] | Product List | Glossary Off
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000
FXUS62 KTBW 301337
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
937 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT BOUNDARY NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE PENINSULA. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LEE
COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL
EXTEND ISOLD/20 POPS FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS.

DIRER AIR SHOULD THEN TAKE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BRING EVEN
COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT...WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND
NEAR 60 AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER CHANGES
ARE REQUIRED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR
IS FINALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING CHARLOTTE COUNTY NOW...AND THERE IS
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE
SHOWERS TEND TO DRY UP AS THEY APPROACH LAND...BUT ARE QUITE HEAVY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE WEST OF BOCA GRANDE AND CAPTIVA.

BY SUNRISE...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PASSING THROUGH LEE COUNTY
AND THE SHOWERS PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH. AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE WITH US FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WHICH IS LIKELY
TO DIM THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH AND MID 80S CENTRAL
AND SOUTH.

IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE
COOLEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
LIKELY FROM LEVY COUNTY SOUTH TO INTERIOR PASCO COUNTY. MIDDLE
50S TO AROUND 60 WILL BE COMMON OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR.
EXPECT THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
LEE COUNTY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 70...BUT IT WILL BE DRY AND STILL
FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY...TAKING
THE COOL AIR ALONG WITH IT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL START OUR
MODERATING TREND...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY. I STILL EXPECT MOST PLACES TO FALL SHORT OF 90
DEGREES...BUT IT COULD GET CLOSE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK BACK INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS BEFORE MORNING. IT WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND MAINLY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY. OUR FRIENDLY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE MOST OF THE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOST OF OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS DRY AND COOLER AIR DESCEND UPON THE STATE TODAY
AND REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...AR
SHORT TERM...EJ
AVIATION...PRC

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09-30-2009, 10:27 PM
Post: #940
Spring Hill, Florida Area
September 30, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 81° F
Overnight Low was 62° F
Mean Temperature was 71.5° F

Average Daytime High is 88° F
Average Overnight Low is 65° F
Average Mean for date 76.5° F

Record High is 95° in 1987
Record Low is 57° in 1993

Pt. Sunny with a lot of mid to high level clouds streaming in off the gulf. The boundary is over south Florida and is expected to move back north by Friday the 2nd.

A very pleasant morning as cooler, more pleasant air moved in.

Dewpoints started in the upper 40's

For the first time since the morning of June 1st, our overnight low was below 70°, a string of 120 consecutive nights.

Our coolest morning since May 19th, when it was 61°

Gulf water Temp on last day of September is 83°

Forecast for Thursday, October 1st:
Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming northeast around 6 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Light north northwest wind.
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