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Spring Hill, Florida Area
09-20-2009, 09:34 PM
Post: #921
Spring Hill, Florida Area
September 19, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 91° F
Overnight Low was 73° F
Mean Temperature was 82° F

Average Daytime High is 90° F
Average Overnight Low is 68° F
Average Mean for date 79° F

Record High is 96° in 1990
Record Low is 55° in 1981

Pt. Sunny

Dewpoints in the low 70's

Winds east/northeast at 5-10 mph

Forecast for Sunday the 20th:
Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 100. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. East northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
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09-20-2009, 09:36 PM
Post: #922
Spring Hill, Florida Area
September 20, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 91° F
Overnight Low was 74° F
Mean Temperature was 82° F

Average Daytime High is 90° F
Average Overnight Low is 68° F
Average Mean for date 79° F

Record High is 96° in 2005
Record Low is 48° in 1981

Pt. Sunny the storms nearby with cloud debris after 7 p.m.

Winds east/southeast at 5-12 mph

Dewpoints in the mid 70's

Forecast for Monday the 21st:
Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 100. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. North northwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
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09-21-2009, 01:03 PM
Post: #923
Spring Hill, Florida Area
00
FXUS62 KTBW 211719
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
119 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...BROAD RIDING IN THE MID/UL WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE
REMNANTS OF FRED WILL HELP WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS THE SE US COAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO ALLOW SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST COMPARED THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER EASTERLY THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE THE REMNANTS
OF FRED WILL GIVE THE WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR A MODEST NORTHERLY
COMPONENT. FROM THE SOUNDING TODAY...EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
HAS BACK OFF A BIT SO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO DRIFT TO THE I 75 CORRIDOR FROM PASCO CO. SOUTHWARD.
EVEN WITH DEW POINTS DECREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WE`LL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION TO
HELP INITIATE SOME STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AS WITH
YESTERDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AS ACTIVITY TO FROM
THE EAST COLLIDES WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

A WEAK SFC-850 THICKNESS RIDGE WILL HELP TEMPS RUN A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD SO WILL AGAIN USE A BLEND. REX TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE INTERIM UPPER
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND FLORIDA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING WELL TO THE
NORTH. AMPLE MOISTURE (PWS IN THE 1.8 TO 2" RANGE) WITHIN A
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS (NEAR CLIMO POPS)
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CIRCULATIONS EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ON SATURDAY A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE
SOUTHWARD AS A BACK-DOOR TYPE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
THIS FRONT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER WITH SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING SUNDAY DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL HELP TO DRAG A SECOND
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
MOVING THIS FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WHERE IT WILL
LIKELY STALL OUT THROUGH TUESDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF IT...WITH A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW PUSHING CONVECTION TOWARD
INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL READINGS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES FROM MID AFTERNOON (AFTER 20Z)
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN BY MID EVENING TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW OF 5-10KT
NEAR THE COAST UP TO 15KT OFF SHORE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 1-3FT
RANGE. OCCASIONAL 4FT SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS MID WEEK IN THE
OFF SHORE WATERS AS FETCH INCREASES SLIGHTLY. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON SO SCATTERED EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AS INLAND ACTIVITY
PUSHES WEST. ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
OFF SHORE WATERS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WX CONCERNS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 91 75 91 / 20 50 20 40
FMY 75 90 76 92 / 20 50 20 40
GIF 74 92 75 92 / 20 40 20 40
SRQ 76 90 74 91 / 20 50 20 40
BKV 72 91 72 91 / 20 50 20 40
SPG 78 89 78 90 / 20 50 20 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL

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09-22-2009, 10:08 AM
Post: #924
Spring Hill, Florida Area
September 21, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 92° F
Overnight Low was 74° F
Mean Temperature was 83° F

Average Daytime High is 90° F
Average Overnight Low is 68° F
Average Mean for date 79° F

Record High is 97° in 1988
Record Low is 61° in 1986

Pt. Sunny

Winds east at 5-15 mph

Dewpoints in the mid 70's

Some storms formed just west of here on sea-breeze since it didn’t make it too far inland.

Forecast for Tuesday the 22nd:
Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 99. Northeast wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
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09-22-2009, 10:37 AM
Post: #925
Spring Hill, Florida Area
000
FXUS62 KTBW 221314 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
910 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2009

CORRECTED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...DEEP MID-UL NORTHERLY FLOW SHOWS UP AGAIN ON THE 12Z TBW
SOUNDING. TODAY THAT FLOW HAS EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS DEPICTED
IN THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING AND IS STARTING TO SHOW IN THE 1Z EYW
SOUNDING. A MODERATE LL EASTERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE
SEA BREEZE FORMATION. EXPECTING ANOTHER BRIEF AND WEAK SEA BREEZE
TO FORM AND SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD...STRUGGLING TO REACH I 75. WITH
THE MID LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SCATTERED ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE. WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED POPS IN LEVY COUNTY TO 30%
AS THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FURTHER
TO THE SURFACE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM MID AFTERNOON (AFTER 20Z) THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN BY MID
EVENING TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BUT GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 92 75 91 75 / 50 20 40 20
FMY 91 76 92 75 / 50 20 40 20
GIF 93 74 92 75 / 40 20 40 20
SRQ 91 75 90 74 / 50 20 40 20
BKV 91 73 91 73 / 40 20 40 20
SPG 90 78 90 78 / 50 20 40 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20/BARRON
AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL

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09-23-2009, 02:29 PM
Post: #926
Spring Hill, Florida Area
000
FXUS62 KTBW 231733
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
133 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ALOFT NORTH AMERICA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON - A RIDGE
REACHES FROM SW CANADA TO SOUTH CA...A LOW SPINS ALONG THE NE/KS
BORDER...TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA BRUSHES NEW ENGLAND...AND
A RIDGE STRETCHES FROM MEXICO TO THE SE U.S. AT THE SURFACE...A
LOW IS OVER EASTERN NE/KS WITH A FRONT SOUTH TO TX. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM TX COASTAL WATERS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC ALONG LATITUDE 40 NORTH RIDGES
TO THE U.S. COAST BETWEEN FL AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AN
INVERTED TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FRED...EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE FL TO NC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...THE PATTERN ALOFT THE NATION
CHANGES LITTLE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING AS IT SETTLES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE INVERTED TROUGH/REMNANTS OF FRED/
DISSIPATES AS IT LIFTS UP TO THE NW WHILE THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND SAGS SOUTH...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN WITH
EASTERLY FLOW OVER FL AND THE GULF.

THE EAST COAST MORNING CONVECTION DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART
BEFORE REACHING THE CWA. HOWEVER..A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS AND THUNDER-
STORMS ARE NOW OVER AND EAST OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND THE EXPECTED SEA BREEZE...THE CURRENT POPS
OF 30-50-40 FROM COASTAL WATERS TO INTERIOR SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL
LEAVE AS IS. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED AND THEN END IN THE EARLY
EVENING. LIGHT ENE WINDS ALONG WITH ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FROM PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...AND
POLK NORTH AND PLACED IN THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS.

FOR THU AND FRI...THE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON...
ISOLATED EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PROVIDES A FOCUS. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH WILL SUPPRESS
POPS FROM 40/50 THU TO 30 FRI. IN ADDITION THE RIDGE WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM...THEN DIFFER SOME
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND SPEED OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
PROGD TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE FASTER THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER MODEL
CONTINUITY DEVELOPS.

AS FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WELL TO THE NORTH WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. DRY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCE BELOW NORMAL (POPS 20% AT BEST) AND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE SOUTHWARD AS AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AS MENTIONED ABOVE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL MOVE.
SEEING THAT MOST OF THE UPPER SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUE TO PREFER THE SLOWER
LOOKING GFS SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO STALL AND WASH OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS WILL DEPICT POPS
IN THE 30-40% RANGE OVER THE NATURE COAST ON MONDAY WITH 20% POPS
CONTINUING CENTRAL AND SOUTH...THEN WILL SHOW A 20-40% POP GRADIENT
SOUTH TO NORTH ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL SITES FROM MID AFTERNOON (AFTER 20Z) ON THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN BY MID EVENING TONIGHT...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT...BUT SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING MAY AGAIN SEE SOME BRIEF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOP
TOWARD SUNRISE ON THURSDAY MORNING NEAR KTPA/KPIE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH EASTERLY WINDS...EXCEPT SHIFTING TO ONSHORE
IN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES NEAR THE COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SAG
SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND AND MON WITH WINDS BECOMING SE AND THEN
SW OR WEST. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10KT OR LESS WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 91 76 92 / 20 50 20 30
FMY 76 92 74 92 / 20 50 20 30
GIF 74 92 75 93 / 20 40 20 30
SRQ 74 90 74 92 / 20 50 20 30
BKV 73 91 73 92 / 20 50 20 30
SPG 78 90 79 90 / 20 50 20 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

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09-24-2009, 10:08 AM
Post: #927
Spring Hill, Florida Area
September 22, 2009 Observations: Autumn begins at 5:19 p.m. EDT
Daytime High was 90° F
Overnight Low was 73° F
Mean Temperature was 81.5° F

Average Daytime High is 89° F
Average Overnight Low is 67° F
Average Mean for date 78° F

Record High is 95° in 1997
Record Low is 58° in 1972

Pt. Sunny

Dewpoints in the mid 70's

Winds east at 5-15 mph

Forecast for Wednesday the 23rd:
Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 100. North northeast wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. East northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
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09-24-2009, 10:08 AM
Post: #928
Spring Hill, Florida Area
September 23, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 91° F
Overnight Low was 76° F
Mean Temperature was 83.5° F

Average Daytime High is 89° F
Average Overnight Low is 67° F
Average Mean for date 78° F

Record High is 96° in 1988
Record Low is 57° in 1972

Low clouds and fog before 10 a.m. then Pt. Sunny rest of day with some clouds around 6 p.m.

Winds east at 5-15 mph

Dewpoints in the low 70's

Forecast for Thursday the 24th:
Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon. Patchy fog before 9 a.m. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 100. Northeast wind between 3 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. East northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
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09-25-2009, 10:13 AM
Post: #929
Spring Hill, Florida Area
000
FXUS62 KTBW 251243
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
843 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES NW AND NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FL-GA-SC COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z TBW
RAOB CAME IN VERY MOIST WITH A PWAT NEAR 2 AND A QUARTER INCHES.
THE LOWER LAYER WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND EXPECT THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH FARTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY A SLACKENING GRADIENT AS THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZE WILL
INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY...TO 40 PERCENT...ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE THE GRIDS AND FORECAST ARE ON TRACK. UPDATES BY 9 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...
EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT
PRETTY FAR INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND INITIATE
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO HEAD BACK TOWARDS THE WEST COAST LATER IN THE
EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BELIEVE COVERAGE
WILL BE GOOD HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING (ALTHOUGH MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN
USUAL - TOWARDS MIDNIGHT OR SO) AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS NOTED ABOVE...A MORE PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST...OUT BY 10
AM. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...23/MCNATT

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09-25-2009, 11:56 AM
Post: #930
Spring Hill, Florida Area
000
FXUS62 KTBW 251243
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
843 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES NW AND NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FL-GA-SC COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z TBW
RAOB CAME IN VERY MOIST WITH A PWAT NEAR 2 AND A QUARTER INCHES.
THE LOWER LAYER WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND EXPECT THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH FARTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY A SLACKENING GRADIENT AS THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZE WILL
INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY...TO 40 PERCENT...ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE THE GRIDS AND FORECAST ARE ON TRACK. UPDATES BY 9 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...
EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT
PRETTY FAR INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND INITIATE
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO HEAD BACK TOWARDS THE WEST COAST LATER IN THE
EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BELIEVE COVERAGE
WILL BE GOOD HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING (ALTHOUGH MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN
USUAL - TOWARDS MIDNIGHT OR SO) AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS NOTED ABOVE...A MORE PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST...OUT BY 10
AM. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...23/MCNATT

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