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Spring Hill, Florida Area
09-15-2009, 03:02 PM
Post: #911
Spring Hill, Florida Area
September 14, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 92° F
Overnight Low was 75° F
Mean Temperature was 83.5° F

Average Daytime High is 90° F
Average Overnight Low is 69° F
Average Mean for date 79.5° F

Record High is 96° in 2004
Record Low is 66° in 1971

Started Sunny then increasing clouds and remained pretty much cloudy till very late in the day. In the breaks, the temps rose.

Southwest at 5-12 mph

Dewpoints in the mid 70's

Forecast for Tuesday the 15th:
Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 98. East southeast wind at 8 mph becoming west southwest. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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09-16-2009, 04:03 AM
Post: #912
Spring Hill, Florida Area
000
FXUS62 KTBW 160653
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
253 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING ALONG THE WESTERN AR/LA LINE
WHILE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN EAST OVER CUBA TO THE
BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW ALONG THE LA/MS BORDER TRAILS A
COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE GULF AND HAS A WARM FRONT REACHING
EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST IS WEAKLY RIDGING TOWARD FL. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS OVER
AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...THE UPPER LOW WILL WANDER OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...MAINTAINING WEST AND SW FLOW ALOFT
THE AREA...AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN FRI. THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THE HIGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN
ACROSS THE STATE THU...AS THE BAHAMA TROUGH EXITS NE...AND CONTINUE
FRI.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DRY SOME AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SLIGHT AS PWAT
VALUES OF 2.0-2.5 TODAY GO TO 1.8-2.1 BY FRI. LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY THU AND FRI AS THE AREA
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT. WIND SPEEDS PICK UP SOME BUT WILL STAY LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. THE MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZES BOUNDARIES
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT BEGIN IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD REMAINS UNCHANGED. MID/UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
ACROSS FLORIDA DURING THE PERIOD WHILE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN THE U.S. EAST COAST HELPING TO SETUP A GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZES AND DAYTIME HEATING TO CAUSE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE SOME
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS TODAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP SOME AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN SE TO EAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW 3
FT. THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN WILL BE PERIODS OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH RH ALONG WITH LOW D.I. VALUES...DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 76 90 76 / 50 30 40 30
FMY 91 75 91 76 / 50 30 40 30
GIF 91 75 91 75 / 50 20 40 30
SRQ 88 74 90 75 / 50 30 40 30
BKV 90 71 90 72 / 50 30 40 30
SPG 89 79 90 79 / 50 30 40 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...69/CLOSE

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09-17-2009, 09:21 AM
Post: #913
Spring Hill, Florida Area
XUS62 KTBW 171250
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
850 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE UNTIL WEAKENING LATER THIS MORNING.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DELAY HEATING A BIT. AFTER THE
STORMS DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN MORE RAPID HEATING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER LAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORM MOTION TODAY SHOULD
BE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WHICH MEANS SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE MORE
FREQUENT SHOWERS AS THEY SET UP IN NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LINES
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE 12Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWS LOTS OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS TODAY...BUT NO SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED
STREET FLOODING.

THE GRIDDED FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. THE TEXT FORECASTS ARE STILL IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO ZONE
UPDATES ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY. THIS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS WITH
EXPECTED CB DEVELOPMENT BY 15Z AND THEN SCATTERED TSRA AFTER 17Z.
THIS WILL BE HANDLED BY VCTS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FINAL
COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF STORMS. TS WILL END AFTER 00Z WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL 04Z...THEN CLEARING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LOCAL SEABREEZES
ANTICIPATED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OFFSHORE...MAINLY ABOUT
20 MILES OFFSHORE. EXPECT THESE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT BATCH OF
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FROM THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY OVER LAND THIS
EVENING PUSHING BACK OVER THE GULF WATERS AFTER SUNSET. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...JILLSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON

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09-17-2009, 11:04 PM
Post: #914
Spring Hill, Florida Area
September 15, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 93° F
Overnight Low was 75° F
Mean Temperature was 84° F

Average Daytime High is 90° F
Average Overnight Low is 69° F
Average Mean for date 79.5° F

Record High is 95° in 2000
Record Low is 60° in 1976

Pt. Sunny till around 3 p.m.

Heavy shower with some thunder at 3:35 p.m.

Dewpoints in the mid 70's

Winds variable at 5-12 mph with some diminishing in the afternoon

Rain Amount = 1.05" (Total for Month = 4.44")

Forecast for Wednesday the 16th:
Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 97. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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09-17-2009, 11:05 PM
Post: #915
Spring Hill, Florida Area
September 16, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 91° F
Overnight Low was 73° F
Mean Temperature was 82° F

Average Daytime High is 90° F
Average Overnight Low is 69° F
Average Mean for date 79.5° F

Record High is 97° in 1991
Record Low is 60° in 2001

Pt. Sunny

Dewpoints in the low 70's

Winds southeast and light, then became west at 5-10 mph

Shower at 6:15 p.m.

Rain Amount = .30"

Forecast for Thursday the 17th:
Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 97. East wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming south southeast. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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09-17-2009, 11:06 PM
Post: #916
Spring Hill, Florida Area
September 17, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 92° F
Overnight Low was 76° F
Mean Temperature was 84° F

Average Daytime High is 90° F
Average Overnight Low is 69° F
Average Mean for date 79.5° F

Record High is 94° in 1997
Record Low is 58° in 1999

A lot of clouds early but then became Pt. Sunny by 11 a.m.

Shower at 5:45 p.m./6:10 p.m./6:30 p.m./Another shower at 9:30 p.m./11:35 p.m.

Very powerful thunderstorm at 7:10 p.m. with torrential rain/gusty winds/frequent lightning (1.50" of rain from this in 20 minutes).

Winds southeast at 5-10 mph then south with gusts to 35 mph during storm

Dewpoints in the low 70's

Rain Amount = 3.20" (Total for Month = 7.94") Already above normal rainfall for month.

Forecast for Friday the 18th:
Thursday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 11am, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a high near 88. Northeast wind between 3 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Northeast wind between 6 and 9 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
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09-18-2009, 05:46 PM
Post: #917
Spring Hill, Florida Area
000
FXUS62 KTBW 181718
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
118 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY HAS
ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF AT THIS TIME. THIS HAS
SPARKED A ROBUST LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ARE
ALSO BEING ENHANCED AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE REMNANT LAND BREEZE
BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SNEAK INTO LEVY COUNTY LATER
TODAY...BUT THE ENERGY SHOULD SOON LIFT OUT ALLOWING THE STORMS
OVER THE WATER TO WEAKEN.

DRY AIR IS KEEPING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK AT THIS TIME...
BUT THE HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE EAST IS ALREADY SHOWING UP IN CLOUD
LINES AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF I DROPPED POPS A
BIT TOO MUCH FOR THE INTERIOR EARLIER TODAY. OTHERWISE...STILL
EXPECT MAIN AFTERNOON STORMS NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR TODAY AS WEAK
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SETS UP.

LINGERING SCATTERED STORMS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY
MIDNIGHT WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES FROM EAST TO WEST AFTER THAT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE PRIMARILY EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND PUSHING TO
PERHAPS THE I-75 CORRIDOR EACH DAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 40 PERCENT EVERYWHERE EACH DAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD
FALL OVER OUR WESTERN COASTAL AREAS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...THE GENERAL PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF H5
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA TO PROVIDE ABOVE AVERAGE DAILY
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE REMNANTS
OF FRED AND WHAT...IF ANY...INTERACTION IT HAS WITH THE AREA. FOR
NOW GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE
ELECTED TO JUST NUDGE POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY IN THE DAY 4 TO 5
TIMEFRAME. NEWEST MEX GUIDANCE DOES REFLECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
DURING THIS TIME.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WHILE YESTERDAY THE ECMWF AND GFS HAD SETTLED ON A DEEP
CUTOFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...NOW THE PREFERRED SOLUTION IS FOR
THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH THE CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE EXHIBITED WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM KTBW SHOWED CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR
HAD MOVED IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS MORNING. IT SEEMS THAT THIS HAS
INHIBITED CLOUD AND STORM DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT...AND LOCAL
SEABREEZES DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE STARTED YET. WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
FOR THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE SOME STORMS AROUND
ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT. OVERNIGHT THE ACTIVITY
WILL WIND DOWN BY 04Z AND THEN JUST CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A MORE PRONOUNCED EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. SEAS
WILL BUILD UP TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS WHEN A 10 TO 15 KNOT EASTERLY SURGE MOVES INTO THE GULF EACH
DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS SUMMER PATTERN
CONTINUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 91 76 91 / 30 40 20 40
FMY 75 92 74 92 / 30 40 20 40
GIF 75 92 75 92 / 20 40 20 40
SRQ 75 91 75 91 / 30 40 20 40
BKV 72 91 72 91 / 30 40 20 40
SPG 79 90 79 90 / 30 40 20 40

&&

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09-19-2009, 02:32 PM
Post: #918
Spring Hill, Florida Area
000
FXUS62 KTBW 191734
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
134 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)....MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A RIDGE OVER THE
PENINSULA BUILDS NORTH. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER OVER
THE PENINSULA AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PENINSULA AS
THE REMNANTS OF FRED WILL EDGE CLOSER THE SE COAST.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS FURTHER SOUTH
AS SOME EXCESS MOISTURE OVER S FL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH. A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A WEAK SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION STARTING FURTHER NORTH AND WORKING IT`S WAY SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. THEREFORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OFF SHORE
LATER TONIGHT. CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO
DRIFT EAST OF THE I 75 CORRIDOR.

FOR TOMORROW...SIMILAR PATTERN IN PLACE BUT WITH HIGHER PWATS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO 50%. MODELS
HINT AT A STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SO WE COULD SEE BETTER
STORM COVERAGE FURTHER EAST.

FOR MONDAY...THE REMNANTS OF FRED BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. NAM
BRINGS IT TOWARDS THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST WHILE GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP IT FURTHER NORTH. DECIDED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF AND INTRODUCE A NE FLOW OVER THE INTERIOR SHIFTING TO AN
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE COAST. KEPT SCATTERED STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.

TEMPS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES THEN DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END. STRONG UPPER
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF/ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG DEVELOPING CUT OFF CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S./4
CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE WILL MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE REMNANTS OF FRED MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CAROLINA
COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE (PW`S 1.8 -2"
RANGE) WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO GENERATE SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (NEAR
CLIMO POPS ~40%) ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH
DAY..DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (FRIDAY/SATURDAY) AS THE GFS
FLATTENS AND RETROGRADES THE UPPER RIDGE WEST ALLOWING FOR AN EASTERN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND MAINTAINS STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW FINALLY STARTS TO OPEN UP AND
LIFTS SLOWLY OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS LEADS TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE REX TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...PREFER THE MORE STAGNANT AND SLOWER CHANGING UPPER
AIR PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF VS THE GFS...SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
NEAR CLIMO FOR NOW FOR BOTH DAYS AND WAIT TO SEE IF BETTER CONTINUITY
DEVELOPS AMONG THE MODELS DURING THE COMING WEEK. INCREASING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT FROM THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT
IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...AND LOWER 90S INLAND...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.



&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES AFTER
20Z THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER 02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 6-8KT NEAR THE COAST
TO ABOUT 10-12 KT OFFSHORE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF AND A PERSISTENT EAST FLOW OUTSIDE OF THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...NOT EXPECTING ANY MARINE CONCERNS OUTSIDE
OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 89 76 90 / 20 50 20 40
FMY 74 91 75 92 / 20 50 20 40
GIF 75 91 75 91 / 20 50 20 40
SRQ 75 90 74 89 / 20 50 20 40
BKV 72 90 72 90 / 20 50 20 40
SPG 78 88 78 88 / 20 50 20 40

&&

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09-20-2009, 04:33 PM
Post: #919
Spring Hill, Florida Area
000
FXUS62 KTBW 201726
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
126 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DIGS
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGE OF
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THE REMNANTS OF FRED (WHICH IS NOTHING MORE THAN A WEAK
OPEN WAVE) WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ONLY A MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW....AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING UPDATE LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15KT FROM 500-2000FT AGL WHICH
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW...STILL EXPECTING A WEAK WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS
MORE MOISTURE HAS SPREAD OVER THE AREA SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS AREAS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. STORMS
ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO DRIFT WEST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AND AFFECT INLAND COUNTIES AS WELL.
CONVECTION THAT DOES MAINTAIN AND REACH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
MAY HELP INITIATE SOME STRONGER ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARIES.

FOR TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF FRED APPROACH THE SE US COAST. THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS THIS WILL HAVE ON OUR REGION IS A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND A SLIGHT
DROP IN DEW PT TEMPS. STILL EXPECTING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

DAILY MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RUN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...AN AMPLIFIED BUT STAGNANT
REX TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A DEEP CUT OFF CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH
OTHER STRONG UPPER RIDGING PERSISTING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
FLORIDA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS
THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THESE
FEATURES...BUT STILL SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD (ALTHOUGH NOT AS BAD AS YESTERDAY) WITH RESPECT TO
THE TIMING AND EVENTUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN AND
MOVEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES SO FOR NOW WILL USE A
BLEND. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE REMNANTS OF FRED OVER
THE ATLANTIC MOVES WEST INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AMPLE MOISTURE (PWS IN THE 1.8 TO 2" RANGE) WITHIN AN EASTERLY
WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL HELP TO GENERATE SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS (NEAR CLIMO POPS 40%) ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CIRCULATIONS EACH DAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWER 90S INLAND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM MID AFTERNOON
(AFTER 20Z) THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN BY MID EVENING TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK
PRODUCING A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND. WEAK SEA BREEZE CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY NEAR THE COAST WHICH WILL MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ISOLATED
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVER NIGHT
HOURS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1-3FT RANGE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 91 76 91 / 20 40 20 40
FMY 75 93 75 90 / 20 40 20 40
GIF 75 93 74 92 / 20 40 20 40
SRQ 75 90 76 90 / 20 40 20 40
BKV 72 92 72 91 / 20 40 20 40
SPG 78 90 78 89 / 20 40 20 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL

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09-20-2009, 09:33 PM
Post: #920
Spring Hill, Florida Area
September 18, 2009 Observations:
Daytime High was 89° F
Overnight Low was 73° F
Mean Temperature was 81° F

Average Daytime High is 90° F
Average Overnight Low is 68° F
Average Mean for date 79° F

Record High is 98° in 2004
Record Low is 64° in 2003

Heavy shower at 12:30 a.m.

Pt. Sunny in day light hours.

Light shower at 6:50 p.m. (dropped .07" of rain)

Winds southeast at 5-10 mph

Dewpoints in the low 70's

Rain Amount = .50" (Total for Month = 8.44")
Forecast for Saturday the 19th:
Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 97. Northeast wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. East northeast wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
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