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Central Florida - ROLLTIDE - 09-27-2009 09:33 PM

...


Central Florida - ROLLTIDE - 09-28-2009 11:37 AM

000
FXUS62 KTBW 281251 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
850 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT BOUNDARY DEPICTED IN LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS
AS BASICALLY STALLING BETWEEN SARASOTA AND THE TAMPA BAY AREA. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME ISOLATED CELLS REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND NEAR NAPLES.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL HAVE A HARD TIME IN INITIATING CONVECTION WITH
A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS ALREADY FILTERING INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. 20/30 POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FROM MANATEE DOWN
TO LEE COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
REQUIRED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE
SEASON WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA TODAY...BUT IT WILL
BE VERY SHALLOW AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE DAY DUE TO
MIXING. THIS MAKES THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
DIFFICULT...BUT WITH SO MUCH DRY AIR ALREADY WELL ESTABLISHED IN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...FEEL BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND
MAINLY OVER LAND WITH HEATING TODAY. THIS WOULD FAVOR CHARLOTTE
AND LEE COUNTIES...SO WILL FORECAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THERE.
NORTH OF THERE...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THEN LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. IT WILL
STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH HIGHS STILL AROUND 90 DEGREES
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE FRONT LOSES ITS IDENTITY TONIGHT AS A SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE STOLEN MUCH OF THE MOISTURE...SO ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE LESS THAN 20
PERCENT...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE THAT MANY AREAS WILL
HAVE A TRACE OF RAIN. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH
THIS SCENARIO...BUT BASED ON THE VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE...WILL
LEAVE SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL FALL INTO THE MID
60S FOR THE NATURE COAST...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 60S OVER OUR
INTERIOR CENTRAL ZONES. THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE
70S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE GET
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...BUT COULD EASILY REACH 90 DEGREES
OR SO...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH.

IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE COOLER DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON
WEDNESDAY AS WE START THE DAY IN THE MIDDLE 50S OVER THE NATURE
COAST...TO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE NATURE
COAST...BUT STILL REACH THE MID 80S AROUND THE BAY AND EVEN SOME
UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP OVER FMY AND RSW THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT DIPS SOUTH...BUT OTHERWISE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN DRY. LESS
CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
TONIGHT...WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOTS
RANGE AS A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
THEN DIRECTIONS SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. IN GENERAL...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT
CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL START
DECREASING ON TUESDAY...AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MAY BRING DEWPOINTS
DROPPING FASTER THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH BECOMES
NECESSARY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.


Central Florida - ROLLTIDE - 09-29-2009 11:54 AM

...


Central Florida - virgo10 - 09-30-2009 08:07 AM

I have my windows open for the first time since April. Current temp is 66 degrees. Let's party!!! :biggrin:


Central Florida - ocala - 09-30-2009 10:26 AM

Heat index of 97 yesterday with a low this AM of 54.
What a difference!


Central Florida - ROLLTIDE - 09-30-2009 12:07 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 301337
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
937 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT BOUNDARY NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE PENINSULA. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LEE
COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL
EXTEND ISOLD/20 POPS FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS.

DIRER AIR SHOULD THEN TAKE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BRING EVEN
COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT...WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND
NEAR 60 AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER CHANGES
ARE REQUIRED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR
IS FINALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING CHARLOTTE COUNTY NOW...AND THERE IS
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE
SHOWERS TEND TO DRY UP AS THEY APPROACH LAND...BUT ARE QUITE HEAVY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE WEST OF BOCA GRANDE AND CAPTIVA.

BY SUNRISE...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PASSING THROUGH LEE COUNTY
AND THE SHOWERS PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH. AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE WITH US FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WHICH IS LIKELY
TO DIM THE SUNSHINE AT TIMES...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH AND MID 80S CENTRAL
AND SOUTH.

IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE
COOLEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
LIKELY FROM LEVY COUNTY SOUTH TO INTERIOR PASCO COUNTY. MIDDLE
50S TO AROUND 60 WILL BE COMMON OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR.
EXPECT THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
LEE COUNTY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 70...BUT IT WILL BE DRY AND STILL
FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY...TAKING
THE COOL AIR ALONG WITH IT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL START OUR
MODERATING TREND...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY. I STILL EXPECT MOST PLACES TO FALL SHORT OF 90
DEGREES...BUT IT COULD GET CLOSE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK BACK INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS BEFORE MORNING. IT WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND MAINLY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY. OUR FRIENDLY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE MOST OF THE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOST OF OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS DRY AND COOLER AIR DESCEND UPON THE STATE TODAY
AND REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...AR
SHORT TERM...EJ
AVIATION...PRC


Central Florida - ROLLTIDE - 10-01-2009 10:44 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 011302
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
900 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...QUIET MORNING SO FAR WEATHERWISE. LOWS ACROSS THE AREA
WENT A LITTLE FURTHER DOWN THAN FORECASTED WITH TAMPA INTERNATIONAL
HITTING 61...BROOKSVILLE FAWN 47 AND SARASOTA/BRADENTON INTL 62.
DRY AND COOLER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH GRADUALLY MIGRATES EASTWARD...WITH WEAK N/NE FLOW PREVAILING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE NW ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY AND ALLOWS FOR WINDS
TO BEGIN VEERING TO THE S/SW AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE SE
STATES. THIS WILL MODIFY THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH
WARMER AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
REQUIRED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST...MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE COME AROUND TO YESTERDAYS ECMWF SOLUTION OF
KEEPING THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS REQUIRES
CUTTING WAY BACK ON OUR RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
NATURE COAST FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. I WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS OVER CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THEY WILL STAY DRY.

FRIDAY NIGHT A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH DIG
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...BUT THE TROUGH REMAINS
FLATTENED WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND FLORIDA. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO ABOUT THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO LOSE
IDENTITY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER LEVY COUNTY
WHERE ONSHORE WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY COULD BRING ALL DAY
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY AS YOU
HEAD SOUTH TOWARD THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE CHANGED SO DRASTICALLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND 1 TO 2
FEET. AN EVENING SURGE IS POSSIBLE AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO A MORE
S/SW FLOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...BUT SO FAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLY AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. DRIEST
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF HERNANDO...PASCO
AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES AS WELL AS MUCH OF POLK COUNTY. SOUTHERN
SUMTER WILL LIKELY BE QUITE DRY AS WELL. THE AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO KEEP HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...AR
SHORT TERM...EJ
AVIATION...PRC


Central Florida - ROLLTIDE - 10-02-2009 01:01 PM

....


Central Florida - ROLLTIDE - 10-04-2009 08:28 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 041227
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
827 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE ACROSS NORTHERN FL
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL TODAY. HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE FRONT WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY
WHILE THE RIDGE MAINTAINS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
MOISTENED SOME FROM YESTERDAY BUT IT IS STILL RATHER LIMITED AND
CONTINUES FAIRLY STABLE. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS REASONABLE. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PROVIDE SE AND
SOUTH WINDS 5-10KT THROUGH TODAY. NEXT FORECAST OUT AFTER 930 AM
WITHOUT CHANGE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...09/RUDE
AVIATION...25/DAVIS


Central Florida - ROLLTIDE - 10-05-2009 01:33 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 051731
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
131 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ALOFT NORTH AMERICA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON - ONE LOW IS
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES - RIDGING REACHES FROM THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS - AND A SECOND LOW IS OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES RIDGES SOUTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY - A LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCING SOUTH TO TX AND THEN
EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST - AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
EXTENDS OVER FL TO THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD
...GENERALLY PROVIDING WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING INTO THE EAST GULF TONIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUE
WILL ADD ENOUGH ENERGY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
TUE WITH POPS 50-40-30 TONIGHT AND 50-40 TUE...FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

AFTER TUE...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES EAST THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ALLOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...
INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTH FL...TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TO CENTRAL FL BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WEST AND SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO SW TO SE AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES BY AND HELPS TO MAINTAIN
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION DESPITE THE UPPER
RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THEY
WILL DIP A DEGREES OR TWO FOR TONIGHT AND TUE BEFORE WARMING WED.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...OVERALL MID TO LATE WEEK
RIDGING PATTERN TO CONTINUE WHILE MODELS HAVING CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION THEN SLOWLY
MOVES EAST INTO THE W ATLANTIC SUN/MON AS FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN TO THE N KEEPING E THEN SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT EXPECTED ONLY ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA
BREEZE INTERACTIONS EACH DAY IF AND WHEN THE CAP BREAKS INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL
NEARING RECORDS MAINLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVING HARD TIME WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT WITH SOME BLASTING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUN/MON AND
SOME NOT EVEN MAKING IT TO THE FL PENINSULA BY WED. IT ALL DEPENDS
ON STRENGTH OF FAST GREAT LAKES TROF DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. SO
WILL KEEP GENERIC CLIMO END OF EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA THIS EVENING...OVERNIGHT AND THRU TUESDAY
MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS NEAR THE COAST MAINLY AROUND THE
TAMPA BAY AREA NWARD.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTH TUESDAY...REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA MIDWEEK...AND THEN
NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONT MAY APPROACH SATURDAY
AND SHIFT THE RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTH. WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES STAY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 89 76 91 / 40 40 20 30
FMY 75 91 75 93 / 30 20 20 30
GIF 73 91 73 93 / 30 50 20 30
SRQ 73 88 73 91 / 40 20 20 30
BKV 70 89 70 91 / 40 50 20 30
SPG 78 88 78 90 / 40 20 20 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...25/DAVIS