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Central Florida - ROLLTIDE - 09-18-2009 05:46 PM
000
FXUS62 KTBW 181718
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
118 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY HAS
ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF AT THIS TIME. THIS HAS
SPARKED A ROBUST LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ARE
ALSO BEING ENHANCED AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE REMNANT LAND BREEZE
BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SNEAK INTO LEVY COUNTY LATER
TODAY...BUT THE ENERGY SHOULD SOON LIFT OUT ALLOWING THE STORMS
OVER THE WATER TO WEAKEN.
DRY AIR IS KEEPING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK AT THIS TIME...
BUT THE HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE EAST IS ALREADY SHOWING UP IN CLOUD
LINES AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF I DROPPED POPS A
BIT TOO MUCH FOR THE INTERIOR EARLIER TODAY. OTHERWISE...STILL
EXPECT MAIN AFTERNOON STORMS NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR TODAY AS WEAK
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SETS UP.
LINGERING SCATTERED STORMS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY
MIDNIGHT WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES FROM EAST TO WEST AFTER THAT.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE PRIMARILY EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND PUSHING TO
PERHAPS THE I-75 CORRIDOR EACH DAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 40 PERCENT EVERYWHERE EACH DAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD
FALL OVER OUR WESTERN COASTAL AREAS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...THE GENERAL PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF H5
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA TO PROVIDE ABOVE AVERAGE DAILY
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE REMNANTS
OF FRED AND WHAT...IF ANY...INTERACTION IT HAS WITH THE AREA. FOR
NOW GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE
ELECTED TO JUST NUDGE POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY IN THE DAY 4 TO 5
TIMEFRAME. NEWEST MEX GUIDANCE DOES REFLECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
DURING THIS TIME.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WHILE YESTERDAY THE ECMWF AND GFS HAD SETTLED ON A DEEP
CUTOFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...NOW THE PREFERRED SOLUTION IS FOR
THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH THE CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE EXHIBITED WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM KTBW SHOWED CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR
HAD MOVED IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS MORNING. IT SEEMS THAT THIS HAS
INHIBITED CLOUD AND STORM DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT...AND LOCAL
SEABREEZES DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE STARTED YET. WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
FOR THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE SOME STORMS AROUND
ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT. OVERNIGHT THE ACTIVITY
WILL WIND DOWN BY 04Z AND THEN JUST CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A MORE PRONOUNCED EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. SEAS
WILL BUILD UP TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS WHEN A 10 TO 15 KNOT EASTERLY SURGE MOVES INTO THE GULF EACH
DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS SUMMER PATTERN
CONTINUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 91 76 91 / 30 40 20 40
FMY 75 92 74 92 / 30 40 20 40
GIF 75 92 75 92 / 20 40 20 40
SRQ 75 91 75 91 / 30 40 20 40
BKV 72 91 72 91 / 30 40 20 40
SPG 79 90 79 90 / 30 40 20 40
&&
Central Florida - ROLLTIDE - 09-19-2009 02:32 PM
000
FXUS62 KTBW 191734
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
134 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)....MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A RIDGE OVER THE
PENINSULA BUILDS NORTH. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER OVER
THE PENINSULA AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PENINSULA AS
THE REMNANTS OF FRED WILL EDGE CLOSER THE SE COAST.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS FURTHER SOUTH
AS SOME EXCESS MOISTURE OVER S FL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH. A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A WEAK SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION STARTING FURTHER NORTH AND WORKING IT`S WAY SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. THEREFORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OFF SHORE
LATER TONIGHT. CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO
DRIFT EAST OF THE I 75 CORRIDOR.
FOR TOMORROW...SIMILAR PATTERN IN PLACE BUT WITH HIGHER PWATS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO 50%. MODELS
HINT AT A STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SO WE COULD SEE BETTER
STORM COVERAGE FURTHER EAST.
FOR MONDAY...THE REMNANTS OF FRED BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. NAM
BRINGS IT TOWARDS THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST WHILE GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP IT FURTHER NORTH. DECIDED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF AND INTRODUCE A NE FLOW OVER THE INTERIOR SHIFTING TO AN
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE COAST. KEPT SCATTERED STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.
TEMPS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMO.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES THEN DIVERGE SOME TOWARD THE END. STRONG UPPER
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF/ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG DEVELOPING CUT OFF CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S./4
CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE WILL MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE REMNANTS OF FRED MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CAROLINA
COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE (PW`S 1.8 -2"
RANGE) WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO GENERATE SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (NEAR
CLIMO POPS ~40%) ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH
DAY..DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (FRIDAY/SATURDAY) AS THE GFS
FLATTENS AND RETROGRADES THE UPPER RIDGE WEST ALLOWING FOR AN EASTERN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND MAINTAINS STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW FINALLY STARTS TO OPEN UP AND
LIFTS SLOWLY OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS LEADS TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE REX TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...PREFER THE MORE STAGNANT AND SLOWER CHANGING UPPER
AIR PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF VS THE GFS...SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
NEAR CLIMO FOR NOW FOR BOTH DAYS AND WAIT TO SEE IF BETTER CONTINUITY
DEVELOPS AMONG THE MODELS DURING THE COMING WEEK. INCREASING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT FROM THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT
IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...AND LOWER 90S INLAND...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES AFTER
20Z THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AFTER 02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...EASTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 6-8KT NEAR THE COAST
TO ABOUT 10-12 KT OFFSHORE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF AND A PERSISTENT EAST FLOW OUTSIDE OF THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...NOT EXPECTING ANY MARINE CONCERNS OUTSIDE
OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 89 76 90 / 20 50 20 40
FMY 74 91 75 92 / 20 50 20 40
GIF 75 91 75 91 / 20 50 20 40
SRQ 75 90 74 89 / 20 50 20 40
BKV 72 90 72 90 / 20 50 20 40
SPG 78 88 78 88 / 20 50 20 40
&&
Central Florida - ROLLTIDE - 09-20-2009 04:33 PM
000
FXUS62 KTBW 201726
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
126 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DIGS
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGE OF
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THE REMNANTS OF FRED (WHICH IS NOTHING MORE THAN A WEAK
OPEN WAVE) WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ONLY A MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW....AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING UPDATE LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15KT FROM 500-2000FT AGL WHICH
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW...STILL EXPECTING A WEAK WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS
MORE MOISTURE HAS SPREAD OVER THE AREA SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS AREAS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. STORMS
ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO DRIFT WEST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AND AFFECT INLAND COUNTIES AS WELL.
CONVECTION THAT DOES MAINTAIN AND REACH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
MAY HELP INITIATE SOME STRONGER ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARIES.
FOR TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF FRED APPROACH THE SE US COAST. THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS THIS WILL HAVE ON OUR REGION IS A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND A SLIGHT
DROP IN DEW PT TEMPS. STILL EXPECTING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
DAILY MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RUN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...AN AMPLIFIED BUT STAGNANT
REX TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A DEEP CUT OFF CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH
OTHER STRONG UPPER RIDGING PERSISTING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
FLORIDA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS
THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THESE
FEATURES...BUT STILL SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD (ALTHOUGH NOT AS BAD AS YESTERDAY) WITH RESPECT TO
THE TIMING AND EVENTUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN AND
MOVEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES SO FOR NOW WILL USE A
BLEND. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE REMNANTS OF FRED OVER
THE ATLANTIC MOVES WEST INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AMPLE MOISTURE (PWS IN THE 1.8 TO 2" RANGE) WITHIN AN EASTERLY
WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL HELP TO GENERATE SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS (NEAR CLIMO POPS 40%) ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CIRCULATIONS EACH DAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWER 90S INLAND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM MID AFTERNOON
(AFTER 20Z) THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN BY MID EVENING TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK
PRODUCING A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND. WEAK SEA BREEZE CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY NEAR THE COAST WHICH WILL MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ISOLATED
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVER NIGHT
HOURS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1-3FT RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 91 76 91 / 20 40 20 40
FMY 75 93 75 90 / 20 40 20 40
GIF 75 93 74 92 / 20 40 20 40
SRQ 75 90 76 90 / 20 40 20 40
BKV 72 92 72 91 / 20 40 20 40
SPG 78 90 78 89 / 20 40 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
Central Florida - ROLLTIDE - 09-21-2009 01:03 PM
00
FXUS62 KTBW 211719
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
119 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...BROAD RIDING IN THE MID/UL WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE
REMNANTS OF FRED WILL HELP WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS THE SE US COAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO ALLOW SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP.
NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST COMPARED THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER EASTERLY THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE THE REMNANTS
OF FRED WILL GIVE THE WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR A MODEST NORTHERLY
COMPONENT. FROM THE SOUNDING TODAY...EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
HAS BACK OFF A BIT SO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO DRIFT TO THE I 75 CORRIDOR FROM PASCO CO. SOUTHWARD.
EVEN WITH DEW POINTS DECREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WE`LL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION TO
HELP INITIATE SOME STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AS WITH
YESTERDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AS ACTIVITY TO FROM
THE EAST COLLIDES WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
A WEAK SFC-850 THICKNESS RIDGE WILL HELP TEMPS RUN A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD SO WILL AGAIN USE A BLEND. REX TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE INTERIM UPPER
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND FLORIDA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING WELL TO THE
NORTH. AMPLE MOISTURE (PWS IN THE 1.8 TO 2" RANGE) WITHIN A
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS (NEAR CLIMO POPS)
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CIRCULATIONS EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ON SATURDAY A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE
SOUTHWARD AS A BACK-DOOR TYPE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
THIS FRONT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER WITH SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING SUNDAY DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL HELP TO DRAG A SECOND
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
MOVING THIS FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WHERE IT WILL
LIKELY STALL OUT THROUGH TUESDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF IT...WITH A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW PUSHING CONVECTION TOWARD
INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL READINGS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES FROM MID AFTERNOON (AFTER 20Z)
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN BY MID EVENING TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW OF 5-10KT
NEAR THE COAST UP TO 15KT OFF SHORE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 1-3FT
RANGE. OCCASIONAL 4FT SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS MID WEEK IN THE
OFF SHORE WATERS AS FETCH INCREASES SLIGHTLY. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON SO SCATTERED EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AS INLAND ACTIVITY
PUSHES WEST. ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
OFF SHORE WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WX CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 91 75 91 / 20 50 20 40
FMY 75 90 76 92 / 20 50 20 40
GIF 74 92 75 92 / 20 40 20 40
SRQ 76 90 74 91 / 20 50 20 40
BKV 72 91 72 91 / 20 50 20 40
SPG 78 89 78 90 / 20 50 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
Central Florida - ROLLTIDE - 09-22-2009 10:38 AM
000
FXUS62 KTBW 221314 CCA
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
910 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2009
CORRECTED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...DEEP MID-UL NORTHERLY FLOW SHOWS UP AGAIN ON THE 12Z TBW
SOUNDING. TODAY THAT FLOW HAS EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS DEPICTED
IN THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING AND IS STARTING TO SHOW IN THE 1Z EYW
SOUNDING. A MODERATE LL EASTERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE
SEA BREEZE FORMATION. EXPECTING ANOTHER BRIEF AND WEAK SEA BREEZE
TO FORM AND SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD...STRUGGLING TO REACH I 75. WITH
THE MID LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SCATTERED ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE. WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED POPS IN LEVY COUNTY TO 30%
AS THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FURTHER
TO THE SURFACE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM MID AFTERNOON (AFTER 20Z) THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN BY MID
EVENING TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BUT GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 92 75 91 75 / 50 20 40 20
FMY 91 76 92 75 / 50 20 40 20
GIF 93 74 92 75 / 40 20 40 20
SRQ 91 75 90 74 / 50 20 40 20
BKV 91 73 91 73 / 40 20 40 20
SPG 90 78 90 78 / 50 20 40 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...20/BARRON
AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
Central Florida - ROLLTIDE - 09-23-2009 02:28 PM
000
FXUS62 KTBW 231733
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
133 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...ALOFT NORTH AMERICA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON - A RIDGE
REACHES FROM SW CANADA TO SOUTH CA...A LOW SPINS ALONG THE NE/KS
BORDER...TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA BRUSHES NEW ENGLAND...AND
A RIDGE STRETCHES FROM MEXICO TO THE SE U.S. AT THE SURFACE...A
LOW IS OVER EASTERN NE/KS WITH A FRONT SOUTH TO TX. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM TX COASTAL WATERS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC ALONG LATITUDE 40 NORTH RIDGES
TO THE U.S. COAST BETWEEN FL AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AN
INVERTED TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FRED...EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE FL TO NC COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...THE PATTERN ALOFT THE NATION
CHANGES LITTLE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING AS IT SETTLES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE INVERTED TROUGH/REMNANTS OF FRED/
DISSIPATES AS IT LIFTS UP TO THE NW WHILE THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND SAGS SOUTH...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN WITH
EASTERLY FLOW OVER FL AND THE GULF.
THE EAST COAST MORNING CONVECTION DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART
BEFORE REACHING THE CWA. HOWEVER..A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS AND THUNDER-
STORMS ARE NOW OVER AND EAST OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. WITH
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND THE EXPECTED SEA BREEZE...THE CURRENT POPS
OF 30-50-40 FROM COASTAL WATERS TO INTERIOR SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL
LEAVE AS IS. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED AND THEN END IN THE EARLY
EVENING. LIGHT ENE WINDS ALONG WITH ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FROM PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...AND
POLK NORTH AND PLACED IN THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS.
FOR THU AND FRI...THE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON...
ISOLATED EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PROVIDES A FOCUS. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH WILL SUPPRESS
POPS FROM 40/50 THU TO 30 FRI. IN ADDITION THE RIDGE WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM...THEN DIFFER SOME
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND SPEED OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
PROGD TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE FASTER THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER MODEL
CONTINUITY DEVELOPS.
AS FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WELL TO THE NORTH WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. DRY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCE BELOW NORMAL (POPS 20% AT BEST) AND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE SOUTHWARD AS AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AS MENTIONED ABOVE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL MOVE.
SEEING THAT MOST OF THE UPPER SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUE TO PREFER THE SLOWER
LOOKING GFS SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO STALL AND WASH OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS WILL DEPICT POPS
IN THE 30-40% RANGE OVER THE NATURE COAST ON MONDAY WITH 20% POPS
CONTINUING CENTRAL AND SOUTH...THEN WILL SHOW A 20-40% POP GRADIENT
SOUTH TO NORTH ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL SITES FROM MID AFTERNOON (AFTER 20Z) ON THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN BY MID EVENING TONIGHT...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT...BUT SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING MAY AGAIN SEE SOME BRIEF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOP
TOWARD SUNRISE ON THURSDAY MORNING NEAR KTPA/KPIE TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH EASTERLY WINDS...EXCEPT SHIFTING TO ONSHORE
IN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES NEAR THE COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SAG
SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND AND MON WITH WINDS BECOMING SE AND THEN
SW OR WEST. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10KT OR LESS WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 91 76 92 / 20 50 20 30
FMY 76 92 74 92 / 20 50 20 30
GIF 74 92 75 93 / 20 40 20 30
SRQ 74 90 74 92 / 20 50 20 30
BKV 73 91 73 92 / 20 50 20 30
SPG 78 90 79 90 / 20 50 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
Central Florida - ROLLTIDE - 09-25-2009 10:13 AM
000
FXUS62 KTBW 251243
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
843 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES NW AND NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FL-GA-SC COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z TBW
RAOB CAME IN VERY MOIST WITH A PWAT NEAR 2 AND A QUARTER INCHES.
THE LOWER LAYER WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND EXPECT THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH FARTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY A SLACKENING GRADIENT AS THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZE WILL
INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY...TO 40 PERCENT...ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE THE GRIDS AND FORECAST ARE ON TRACK. UPDATES BY 9 AM.
&&
.AVIATION...
EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT
PRETTY FAR INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND INITIATE
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO HEAD BACK TOWARDS THE WEST COAST LATER IN THE
EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BELIEVE COVERAGE
WILL BE GOOD HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING (ALTHOUGH MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN
USUAL - TOWARDS MIDNIGHT OR SO) AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
AS NOTED ABOVE...A MORE PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST...OUT BY 10
AM. NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...23/MCNATT
Central Florida - ROLLTIDE - 09-25-2009 11:56 AM
000
FXUS62 KTBW 251243
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
843 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES NW AND NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FL-GA-SC COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z TBW
RAOB CAME IN VERY MOIST WITH A PWAT NEAR 2 AND A QUARTER INCHES.
THE LOWER LAYER WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND EXPECT THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH FARTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY A SLACKENING GRADIENT AS THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZE WILL
INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY...TO 40 PERCENT...ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE THE GRIDS AND FORECAST ARE ON TRACK. UPDATES BY 9 AM.
&&
.AVIATION...
EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT
PRETTY FAR INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND INITIATE
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO HEAD BACK TOWARDS THE WEST COAST LATER IN THE
EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BELIEVE COVERAGE
WILL BE GOOD HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING (ALTHOUGH MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN
USUAL - TOWARDS MIDNIGHT OR SO) AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
AS NOTED ABOVE...A MORE PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST...OUT BY 10
AM. NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...23/MCNATT
Central Florida - ocala - 09-26-2009 03:18 PM
This is depressing.
First cold front due next week which means so long thunderstorms. Not that there have any in the past month anyways but this marks the end.
A lousy tropical season. Wanted to at least get a TS.
Boring mundane weather for the next 8 months.
Central Florida - Alex - 09-26-2009 05:40 PM
ocala Wrote:This is depressing.
First cold front due next week which means so long thunderstorms. Not that there have any in the past month anyways but this marks the end.
A lousy tropical season. Wanted to at least get a TS.
Boring mundane weather for the next 8 months.
Our rain chance went from 20% day/40% night to 70% day/40% night to 40% night and now nothing tomorrow. So far we've netted nothing, and the line to our west is breaking up, with a few stragglers hanging on out front. This is definitely likely the end of the remnant summer pattern. Hello dry fall...
At least for Central Florida, there are chances of thunderstorms in October (mainly away from the coast though). I filmed a really nice storm the middle part of last October for instance in Orlando.
This tropical season was the utter pits. I've written it off for the bulk of this month as being over. The pattern has been the same: shear, dry air, shear, dry air. What few spin-ups were destroyed before they had a chance. Fred went from Cat 3 to TD in what, 2 days? Danny and Ericka should have never been classified, and James is right on the May storm that should have been named. So technically the next storm (not that I see that happening) should be named Fred.
Claudette was a complete joke too.