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Central Florida - The Bug - 05-15-2006 12:05 PM

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin Fl
1128 Am Edt Mon May 15 2006

Bonita Beach To Englewood 20 To 60 Nm-
Bonita Beach To Englewood Out To 20 Nm-charlotte-desoto-
Englewood To Tarpon Springs 20 To 60 Nm-
Englewood To Tarpon Springs Out To 20 Nm-hardee-highlands-lee-
1128 Am Edt Mon May 15 2006

Through 1 Pm...scattered Showers From The Gulf Of Mexico Moved
Onshore And Spread Into Areas Near Lehigh Acres And Arcadia...
And Myakka City And Wauchula. Additional Showers Will Continue From
Around Bradenton South To Fort Myers And Bonita Springs...and Inland
To Lake Wales And Sebring. Expect Gusty Winds...and Brief Heavy Rain
With The Stronger Showers. The Showers Were Moving Northeast At 25



Central Florida - Alex - 05-15-2006 04:53 PM

I checked the radar from work here and I saw some storms streaming in from the west, but alas, they dissapated before reaching Pinellas, and then refired to my southeast, giving Lake Okeechobee a walloping...

Central Florida - The Bug - 05-15-2006 05:45 PM

We got some sprinkles here around 3:30ish....they didn't last long and the ground was dry about an hour later....

Central Florida - Alex - 05-15-2006 07:08 PM

Wow, even the people at the NWS are getting excited about the prospects of rain.


Special Weather Statement
Expires 11:30 PM EDT on May 15, 2006
Statement as of 4:27 PM EDT on May 15, 2006

... At long last! Welcome rains headed for southwest Florida and
interior south central Florida Tuesday...

Upper level energy circulating around the base of an unseasonably
strong trough in the northeast U.S. Will help to lift a plume of
tropical moisture across the south half of Florida later tonight
and especially on Tuesday... with the heaviest rains falling
between sunrise and early afternoon.

Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will end
this evening. However... a much larger complex of thunderstorms in
the Gulf south of Louisiana late this afternoon will move steadily
east and likely hold together. Thunderstorms may begin moving
onto the Suncoast generally from the Tampa Bay area south just
prior to sunrise on Tuesday.

Thunderstorms with locally torrential rains will be most prevalent
through early afternoon in the Tampa Bay area... and perhaps a bit
longer farther south. The rains will quickly taper off late
Tuesday afternoon and early evening as a late season front brings
yet another batch of dry and pleasant weather into the state for the
rest of the week.

In general... rainfall totals in the Tampa Bay area will range from
1 to 2 inches... with 2 to 3 inches possible farther south into The
Fort Myers area. While the immediate Tampa Bay area received
around an inch a week ago Tuesday... southwest Florida has remained
largely parched. Fort Myers this Spring... which for climate
purposes includes March through may... has only had 0.41 inches of
rain... which is nearly 5 inches below normal.

While the rain will be welcome... there is the potential for flash
flooding given the expected banded nature of the thunderstorms.
This would only occur in areas where 6 or more inches of rain
would fall in 3 hours or less... and in typically poor drainage

In any case... the expected rains should temporarily alleviate the
wildfire situation... but several days of more unusually dry air for
this time of year will follow beginning on Wednesday.

Central Florida - The Bug - 05-15-2006 07:12 PM

did you see the radar recently??? Just looking at the TPA radar there seems to be a nice little spot of rain coming towards Florida....not sure if it will come this far North or not...but I'm glad to see someone else as excited as I am!

Central Florida - Alex - 05-15-2006 10:30 PM

It's all moving inland to our south into southwest Florida (Cape Coral, Fort Myers, Punta Gorda). Have I mentioned that I don't like Southwest Florida?

Central Florida - The Bug - 05-15-2006 10:39 PM

I don't like SW FL either.....

But, I really hate them when they get all my weather.

Central Florida - Alex - 05-15-2006 10:45 PM

It must be all the blue hair and senseless traffic down there that attracts all the weather :wink:

Wx Forecast still has high percentages of rain during the next 36 hours FWIW (60% chance is the highest I've seen all year, with the exception of the 11 inches or whatever that fell when I was in Pensacola):

Rest of Tonight
Mostly cloudy with a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows 66 to 71. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower 80s. West winds around 5 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows around 60 inland to the mid 60s near the coast. West winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight.

Central Florida - The Bug - 05-16-2006 05:57 AM



NOt only do I have rain falling....but I see lightning and I hear THUNDER!!!

Nice way to wake up. LOVIN' IT!

Central Florida - Alex - 05-16-2006 07:43 PM

[COLOR="DarkOrange"]It looks like there are still some thunderstorms offshore by Sarasota as I type this. As for Tampa and more specifically St. Petersburg, we netted some moderate rain for awhile this morning, and light rain most of the day, but nary a clap, rumble, or hint of thunder and lightning. That's fine though, since I was working all day (I hate being stuck in the office during a storm). The rain was nice either way!

Tampa netted just 0.19 inches and St. Pete's airport scored a little more at 0.31.

We now resume our regularly scheduled dry forecast...