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Central Florida - Jason234 - 08-06-2005 03:02 PM

Jeffery McElroy Wrote:ok, thanks. where can I find out what the lapse rates are over the area on a given day?


Unfortuanetly due to popular demand the model animator site now costs money, and has a franchise with Accuweather. If you're really into weather, and want to start forecasting I suggest you 'go pro.'


Central Florida - Jeffery McElroy - 08-06-2005 03:17 PM

I very well may. Thanks.


Katie, multicellular thunderstorms like the ones Keith was talking about can give birth to other cells (which is a process I don't really understand... feel free to enlighten me, keith). Multicellular storms are unique in that, while a regular thunderstorm is small and lasts less than half an hour, the cluster continuously generates new cells over an extremely large area. When he says pulse thunderstorms, he is simply talking about an isolated storm that becomes severe. If I am not mistaken, these types of storms can generate more convective bursts with the same process as a multicellular thunderstorm. I don't think they are big tornado producers... but hail, winds, maybe microsbursts could be a problem.


Central Florida - Jason234 - 08-06-2005 03:33 PM

Jeffery McElroy Wrote:I very well may. Thanks.


Katie, multicellular thunderstorms like the ones Keith was talking about can give birth to other cells (which is a process I don't really understand... feel free to enlighten me, keith). Multicellular storms are unique in that, while a regular thunderstorm is small and lasts less than half an hour, the cluster continuously generates new cells over an extremely large area. When he says pulse thunderstorms, he is simply talking about an isolated storm that becomes severe. If I am not mistaken, these types of storms can generate more convective bursts with the same process as a multicellular thunderstorm. I don't think they are big tornado producers... but hail, winds, maybe microsbursts could be a problem.


Hmmm...multicelluar thunderstorms (mc) form over a large area due to conditional instability, weak shear, and a localized source of lift (e.g sea breeze front in Florida). They can be defined as short lived single celluar thunderstorms that persist for a short time, but as a group can last in upwards of 3 hours (!). Energy and helicity are seeded into the evolving thunderstorms adjacent to the mature thunderhead. When one dissipates a new one is born. If the correct conditions persist they can form supercells, but usually do not produce any from of tornadic activity due to weak shear and short life span of each cell.


Central Florida - Jeffery McElroy - 08-06-2005 03:34 PM

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL COLLIER AND WESTERN HENDRY COUNTIES...

AT 348 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN FELDA AND IMMOKALEE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.


EDIT: Yeah, but why the parent/children relationship?
Energy and helicity are seeded into the evolving thunderstorms adjacent to the mature thunderhead.
Via the mature storm? How? Why?


Central Florida - Jason234 - 08-06-2005 03:42 PM

Ususally your basic run of the mill air mass thunderstorms do not contain 1. that strong of laspe rates 2. a large area of persisting lift, and as a result the outflow boundaries of these MC storms tend to be much stronger. Due to the weak steering flow (they tend to move rather slow), and strong Upper level divergence the outflow boundaries actually outrun the storm, creating new convection very close to the dieing father cell.

I found this amazing presentation on these storms

Enjoy
http://geog-www.sbs.ohio-state.edu/courses/G623.02/P11multicells.ppt#29


Central Florida - Jeffery McElroy - 08-06-2005 03:45 PM

Thank you very much... I will most certianly read up on that. I saved it to my desktop.

I am on the coast, so the sea breeze usually overshoots me and the storms really build up inland. But look at the complex out in the gulf. http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.ktbw.shtml

I read that in a multicellular complex, new storms are usually born in the southwest sectors, with the stronger storms around the center. With this guy, all the intense radar returns are all to the direction of forward motion (?). Is this a totaly different thing?


Central Florida - Jason234 - 08-06-2005 03:49 PM

That's because that's not a multicelluar complex per se, but an area of low pressure that organizes itself such as a hurricane or tropical storm. It's actually being considered for development, but I doubt anything with come from it because it will be slamming into your region in a couple hours!


EDIT: Regarding the MC storms, it depends on the steering flow. For that 'guy' it's just our of your radar range.


Central Florida - Jeffery McElroy - 08-06-2005 03:53 PM

Oh, you are right. I forgot about that. The "center" is way north of all the crap it's flinging at us though. The leading northeast edge promted a marine warning for Tampa Bay. 40 kt winds make real scary waves.


EDIT: Yeah, I considered that. Thanks.


Central Florida - Jeffery McElroy - 08-06-2005 04:24 PM

Hey, I suppose there is no way to have floating dopplar radar stations? Dat would be da shiznit.


Central Florida - The Bug - 08-08-2005 12:20 PM

Monday
Times of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm in parts of the area

High Temperature: 92° F
RealFeel®: 105° F

Winds: SW at 5 mph
Wind Gusts: 11 mph
Maximum UV: Very High (10)
Thunderstorm Probability: 94%

We are actually already starting to show signs of stormy weather. There is a nice band of showers heading here from the West coast. I am guessing we should see a good storm by mid afternoon.