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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-28-2009 05:39 AM

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
321 am cst sat feb 28 2009

.short term...
Several items to talk about with this system. First thing noticed
is the stacked low over neb/kan. Shallow thicknesses are quite
broad associated with this low and will quickly move into and out
of the southeastern conus. Weak cyclical vorts will move around
while moisture is also displaced to the south of the low by
tonight. Deep cold air and some low level moisture will provide a
20% chance of seeing some flurries overnight tonight. Went with
flurries since moisture is limited. Here are the thickness

What we like to see in layer thicknesses for only snow...these are
normally rounded:
1000-850mb layer 1300m deep or less
1000-700mb layer 2810m deep or less
1000-500mb layer 5370m deep or less
850-700mb layer 1530m deep or less
850-500mb layer 4050m deep or less

to get other precip types or a mixture...we would look at these
thicknesses for slightly different values. The thermal properties
change abruptly as the stacked low skirts the area causing any
light rain to change immediately to snow. This will be seen even
better to the north and east of this area where moderate snow is
expected. Could have easily brought flurries into a few more
counties and parishes but would like to show more of a trend
before including more areas. As the 12z runs come in and show
the same scenario...more areas can be committed. Mav numbers are
creeping upward for the mcb area to see flurries and the ros is
now showing -sn around 9z in the morning. Only flurries are
expected with no accumulations.

Once the cold front moves through...nw winds will be strong over
land and marine areas. A wind advisory for at least south shore
areas may be needed for saturday night and maybe a short time
sunday. Wind speeds look to be around the 20 mph area which does
not meet criteria but if it is decided that wind speeds will be 26
mph...a wind advisory may be issued. This will be more of a
problem across areas adjancent to lake pontchartrain on the south
shore. The strong cold air intrusion will send del-t numbers into
the 30s providing a very efficient mixing process through a few
thousand feet. The strong winds and cold temps will make for some
uncomfortable wind chill readings as well.

.long term...
Temps stay cool through tuesday. Then return flow begins and
warmth and humidity return wed through the end of the week. Next
system is not seen on the horizon until the start of the next work week.


/preliminary 12z taf package/
scattered showers have developed in advance of the cold front early
this morning and were affecting areas around kbtr and kmcb.
Scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will remain
a possibility for each of the taf sites until the frontal passage.
The cold front...which was extending from central mississippi to
central louisiana and southeast texas...will sweep across south
mississippi and southeast louisiana during the morning to around the
noon hour. Ahead of the front primarily mvfr ceilings were being
observed...although kmsy and kgpt were still reporting vfr
conditions. Predominately mvfr ceilings are expected today both
ahead and behind the cold front...although even ifr ceilings will be
possible in the wake of the front for a period of time. Conditions
are expected to improve to vfr late this afternoon or evening. Winds
will be come gusty behind the front...especially at kmsy. 11


A strong cold front will sweep across the coastal waters this
afternoon and early evening. A strong pressure gradient and very
strong cold air advection behind this front will result in the
development of gale force winds or near gale force sustained winds
with frequent gale force gusts over the gulf coastal waters
overnight. Lake pontchartrain and lake maurepas winds tonight will
likely be in the upper range for a small craft advisory...however a
period of sustained gale force winds or gale force wind gusts will
be possible here as well. Small craft advisory criteria winds are
expected to continue sunday and into sunday night across the gulf
coastal waters. In the near term...a small craft advisory will
remain in effect for the outer gulf coastal waters today in advance
of the front...primarily for seas around 7 feet resulting from the
long duration and fetch of southerly winds. Onshore flow will
develop again tuesday afternoon as the surface ridge that builds
into the gulf coast region sunday and monday shifts to the east. 11

New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 03-01-2009 08:13 AM

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
705 am cst sun mar 1 2009

.sounding discussion...

Fairly dry sounding...environment is very stable with a lifted
index value of 16.4 and a decreased precipitable water value of
0.34 inches. A bit of moisture near 4000 feet allowing a
stratocumulus deck to form.


.prev discussion... /issued 340 am cst sun mar 1 2009/

The somewhat active weather across the forecast area will be
winding down today with tranquil conditions expected for the
upcoming week. March roared in like a lion today with blustery
conditions across the area and even a little bit of snow and sleet
over the extreme northeast sections of the forecast area. A small
area of light rain...or perhaps even mixed precipitation...was
diminishing over south mississippi early this morning and is
expected to be out of the area by sunrise. This precipitation was
associated with a closed upper low over south mississippi that was
quickly pulling off to the east. Breezy to windy conditions will
continue today..winds gusted to over 50 mph at lakefront airport
early this morning...with the strongest winds occurring this
morning down wind of lake pontchartrain and across the coastal
waters. The wind advisory for sections of the south shore...
Including the new orleans metro area...will be extended to 9 am
today. Likewise...the gale warning for the gulf coastal waters
will also be extended to 9 am today. Winds will gradually diminish
somewhat during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Temperatures will be running well below normal the next couple of
days with a deep upper trough along the east coast and northwest
flow aloft prevailing over the mississippi valley. A light freeze
tonight is expected across south mississippi and those areas of
southeast louisiana to the north and northwest of lake pontchartrain.
Temperatures in the same areas will flirt with the freezing mark
again monday night as the surface ridge shifts east across the
region. Temperatures will begin to moderate to levels closer to
climatological normals on tuesday as the low level flow becomes
southeasterly. Temperatures will warm to above normal readings for
the last half of the week as flat ridging aloft builds over the
gulf coast region and low level southerly flow continues.
Differences in the medium range models are evident at the end of
the week and into next weekend with the gfs and canadian
indicating more troughing in the west and ridging in the east
while the ecmwf moves the western trough into the central conus. 11

Strong stacked low is moving over the southeastern u.s. This morning.
Winds have increased significantly overnight and will continue
through day break. Although diminishing later today...wind speeds
will still be out of the nw at 15 to 20 mph and gusty at times.
Ceilings are running at bkn-ovc025 at mcb and gpt. Some sct015 will
tempo these sites during the morning. Clearing will begin as we
approach noon for these two terminals. Sct030 will continue at btr
and msy for the most part today. Winds will ease tonight and clear
skies will be the rule as well. 17

Strong northwest winds will continue this morning. Winds speeds
continue to be strong in the 30 to 35 knot range with gusts will
into the 40s for all coastal waters. As the strong low moves to the
east today...these winds will begin to ease somewhat but will remain
in the small craft advisory range through today for the tidal lakes
and through tonight for the gulf coastal waters. By monday...all
winds and seas should be below sca conditions as strong high
pressure holds through monday then move to the eastern seaboard by
tuesday. The high will ridge over the gulf south through the
remainder of the week causing a weak wind regime. 17

New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 03-02-2009 07:11 AM

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
340 am cst mon mar 2 2009

Quiet weather is expected to prevail through the forecast period.
One more cool day and cold night is in store for the forecast area
to begin the work week before much warmer temperatures return by
mid week. Northwest flow aloft will prevail today and tuesday as
as deep upper trough lingers along the east coast while an upper
ridge over the rockies shifts into the central conus. A surface
ridge will shift eastward across the area this afternoon and
tonight...setting the stage for good radiational cooling and
another cold night tonight. A light freeze is expected across
south mississippi and in those areas of southeast louisiana along
and to the north of a donaldsonville to lake pontchartrain line.

As the surface ridge continues to shift to the east...low level
southerly flow will return bringing moderating temperatures and
increasing humidity for the middle and end of the week. Ridging
aloft will dominate the gulf coast region from mid week into the
weekend. Medium range models continue to differ on how to handle
the upper trough currently off the west coast. The ecmwf and now
the canadian bring the trough into the northern plains by the
weekend while leaving an upper low behind off the west coast.
Meanwhile the gfs brings a lead shortwave trough out of the west
and into the northern plains with a deep trough remaining over the
western conus. At this time plan to maintain the previous forecast
thinking which is more in line with the gfs...meaning warm and
generally dry weather will prevail throughout the weekend. 11


/preliminary 12z taf package/
no cloud or visibility restrictions anticipated through tuesday.
Wind speeds will continue to be a problem through mid morning at msy
due to the proximity of lake pontchartrain. North winds will
diminishing to about 5 to 10 knots by afternoon. 17


Winds will continue to weaken this morning over the northern gulf
waters. Still seeing sustained winds at or above 20 knots on tidal
lakes as well...so will continue sca for lakes until at least 6am
and the gulf waters until 9am. Coastal waters still seeing sustained
around 25 with gusts into the lower 30s. Expect coastal waters to
still need exercise caution afterwards through the day and until
noon for tidal lakes. No flags expected for the remainder of the
week as upper ridge keeps light to moderate onshore flow over the
area. 17

New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 03-03-2009 07:22 AM

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
321 am cst tue mar 3 2009

Tranquil weather is expected to prevail through much of the
forecast period. Northwest flow aloft will continue today and
tonight as the deep upper trough along the east coast gradually
translates into the western atlantic and an upper ridge axis
extending from mexico northward into the plains shifts east. At
the surface...southerly flow will make a return late today and
tonight as a high pressure ridge slips to the east of the region.
After the recent brief cool spell...a return to much warmer
weather will be in the offing as low level southerly flow prevails
and ridging aloft builds over the gulf coast region and southeast
during the last half of the week and into the weekend. Medium
range models continue to struggle with how to handle energy that
will be moving into and out of an upper trough...currently
located off the west coast...that will be moving inland over the
west the next few days. The previously more progressive ecmwf now
seems to have trended to some degree toward the gfs solution of
leaving a significant trough over the western u.s. Into next week
with one short wave trough moving across southern canada and the
northern u.s into the weekend while a shortwave trough moves out
of the western conus trough and into the northern plains toward
the end of the weekend. The canadian model also seems to more or
less agree with this. Regardless of how this all plays out...it
appears that warm and increasingly more humid spring weather will
prevail during the forecast period across the gulf coast region.
There is a small chance for rain toward the end of the weekend
and into early next week...but overall the forecast looks pretty
dry. 11


/preliminary 12z taf package/

vfr conditions will be rule through the forecast package as a broad
ridge of high pressure remains in control of the region. 32


Small craft exercise caution has been issued for the tidal lakes and
coastal waters east of the mississippi river. Observed winds of
15 to 20 knots have been noted over these areas tonight. The winds
over the lake should die off in the next few hours...so the
exercise caution expires at 6 am. However...winds will stay up a
bit longer over the eastern coastal waters...with the caution
conditions continuing through noon. After these conditions end...a
much calmer regime is expected to take hold through at least
friday...as a broad surface ridge dominates the southeastern
portion of the nation. General light southerly flow can be
expected to develop tonight and remain in place through friday.
The gradient may begin to increase into this weekend...as an area
of low pressure develops in the plains states. This may prompt
another round of exercise caution conditions at that time. 32

New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 03-04-2009 07:31 AM

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
425 am cst wed mar 4 2009

.short term...
Latest surface analysis showed a 1032mb high over the ohio valley
with the ridge axis south to the north central gulf. A lee side
trough was noted over the northern and central plains and a south
flow over north louisiana and north half of mississippi. Upper
air analysis and ir satellite imagery showed an anti-cyclonic
curvature over old mexico and texas and the ridge axis from west
texas to the dakotas. No real disagreement with the ridge axis
moving east over the mississippi valley while the surface high
builds over the carolinas through thursday morning. Southerly low
level flow will increase along with increased thickness values
will lead to a warm up for the rest of the week.

.long term...
Surface ridge will remain just east of georgia and florida as the
upper level ridge builds over the northeast gulf and southeast
conus through sat. These features will slowly slide east as a
moist southwest flow from the surface to mid layers develops over
the mid and lower mississippi valley late sunday and monday. The
next system stalls over the central and southern plains next
week...according ecmwf...while gfs brings the next system through
area late tuesday tuesday. Will lean toward ecmwf and no passage
of front as both models maintain a west to southwest flow aloft over
the lower mississippi valley...no clean passaged expected that pattern.
Will increase rain chance with passage of the associated short
wave across the mississippi valley next week. Temps should remain
above norms next week.


/preliminary 12z taf package/
vfr conditions will continue at all terminals through around 06z. A
few fair weather cumulus clouds could develop today...but ceilings
should remain above 3000 feet. After 06z...a weak inversion should
allow for some patchy fog development at kmcb. Visibilities may
drop into the mvfr range. 32


A broad ridge of high pressure centered over the southeastern states
will remain in place through the end of the week. Light southerly
flow and calm seas can be expected through tomorrow. However...a
tightening pressure gradient should begin to take hold friday across
the region as a low pressure system develops over the southern
plains while the ridge remains parked over the southeast. This
increasing pressure gradient will allow winds to increase into the
exercise caution range for the weekend. 32

New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 03-05-2009 07:10 AM

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
415 am cst thu mar 5 2009

Latest surface analysis showed a 1033mb high along the eastern
seaboard with the ridge axis extending southwest over the
northeast gulf. A deepening surface low of 997mb was located over
nebraska and south flow generally west of mississippi river. Upper air
analysis and ir satellite imagery showed an anti-cyclonic
curvature over old mexico and texas and the ridge axis from texas
to the great lakes. Short range model continue to show the ridge
amplifying over the southeast conus and yield a warm up through
the weekend across the region. Low level south flow will likely
increase moisture and instability over the weekend. Surface day temps
between 75 to 80 may not be warm enough to overcome mid warm layer
and rain chances and chances of convection will be limited through
early tuesday. Gfs continue to be the fastest bringing the next
system through on wednesday. Lift along the front should yield
provide convection on wednesday. Gfs flow aloft will be westerly
as the wave moves east across the mississippi valley wednesday.
Ecmwf is slightly slower and frontal passage does not occur. With
the weak upper level support to drive the front through the
area...will maintain rain chances day 6 through day 9 of this
forecast package.


/preliminary 12z taf package/
vfr conditions will continue at all terminals through the day.
Intermittent ceilings at bkn045 will develop this morning as
moisture returns from the gulf. Visibilities may drop into the mvfr
range on friday morning for a short time.


A broad ridge of high pressure centered over the southeastern states
will remain in place through the end of the week. Southerly flow
will begin to increase today as a tightening pressure gradient
begins to take hold across the region. Winds and seas should
increase into the exercise caution range by the weekend.

New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 03-06-2009 07:13 AM

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
423 am cst fri mar 6 2009

Latest surface analysis continue to show a broad 1001mb low over
the great lakes region with a frontal boundary extending southwest
through missouri back to colorado. Ridge of high pressure over
along the eastern seaboard will continue to retreat
east...associated ridge axis extended west across the mississippi
coastal waters...southeast louisiana and south central louisiana.
Surface winds have decouple over east central louisiana north of
lake pontchartrain and mississippi coast. Mostly clear
condition...near saturation and light winds will yield radiational
fog development inland this morning and again each morning through
monday. Upper air analysis showed the broad ridge over the west
gulf and southeast conus. In addition...several disturbances are
lining up with the main trough positively tilted from the northern
plains to california. The first wave will push east across the
rockies to the great lakes by sunday but no impacts to the central
gulf coast. Remains posit. The second wave will push an associated
front just north of the area wednesday followed by a third wave in
the southern stream push through the area late thursday. Will
maintain higher than normal rain chances wednesday and thursday.
With the upper level ridge expanding east...thickness layers will
increase and above norm temps will be on tap through this forecast
package. Gfs slightly faster than ecmwf...but will lean toward gfs
with progressive pattern developing next week. However...did not
bite on lowered temps day 7 and beyond.


/preliminary 12z taf package/
some br with vis numbers from 1 to 3sm will cause ifr conditions
this morning for a few terminals especially over coastal miss and
south of tidal lakes but will not last long after sunrise. Vfr
conditions will then begin and last at all terminals through the
day. Intermittent clouds at sct045 will be around as moisture
returns from the gulf. Visibilities may drop into the vlifr range by
saturday morning for a few terminals as fog sets in mainly for mcb
and gpt areas...but may only be tempo as winds may lift the fog from
time to time.


A broad ridge of high pressure centered over the southeastern
atlantic seaboard will remain in place through the end of the week.
Southerly flow will continue to increase today as a tightening
pressure gradient begins to take hold across the region. Winds and
seas may increase into the exercise caution range by saturday. A
cold front will move slowly southward and stall over the coastal
waters wednesday.

New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 03-07-2009 05:45 AM

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
335 am cst sat mar 7 2009

.short term...
Surface analysis showed the ridge across florida and northeast
gulf with south flow generally east of ms/al state line. In
addition...a deep 1004mb surf low was over west kansas. Dewpoint
were the low 60s over the forecast area this morning. Upper air
analysis showed the anti-cyclonic circulation over the northeast
gulf and southeast conus...southwest flow from new mexico to the
great lakes and a positively tilted trough from the northern
plains to the great basin. A steady state of above norm temps will
occur over the weekend. Upper level disturbance at base of the
trough will eject east quickly over the rockies to the great lakes
by late sunday. This will shift the moisture axis east and pw
values are expected to increase up to 1.5 from east texas central
tennessee. The close proximity of this axis to our northwest zones
has warranted our crew to reinsert slight chance for btr and mcb
sunday but nothing major.

.long term...
Disturbance will continue to move east and moisture axis will lift
north monday. Some major differences with mid range model
solutions. Gfs brings another wave generally following the same
path but slight stronger across the rockies and central plains...bringing
a surface boundary into the area wednesday into thursday. Ecmwf
keeps the boundary well north. Both maintain a west to southwest
flow aloft over gulf coast through thursday. Gfs shows a back
door cold frontal passage feature with a trough deepening over the
northeast conus. Ecmwf shows a similar pattern but shifted north and not
as strong. We will maintain norm to above norm temps and warm air
advection type convection latter in the week. Think gfs will
continue to come more in line with no passage warm solution of ecmwf.


/preliminary 12z taf package/
as anticipated...seeing ifr ceilings across northern portions of
area...at kmcb...and about to build southward into kbtr. Winds may
stay up just enough to keep this a stratus event instead of
fog...but cannot rule out lifr ceilings and visibilities for a short
time around sunrise. Expect all terminals to be vfr by about 15z.
Expect stratus to develop again tonight with mvfr to ifr ceilings
possible by midnight. 35


A broad ridge of high pressure centered over the southeastern
atlantic seaboard will remain in place through the weekend. Will
continue the exercise caution over the outer waters through the
daytime hours...but will be borderline on the low end for most
areas. Exercise caution conditions will probably be a little more
prevalent tonight into sunday morning before relaxing. Wind and
wave forecasts based on nam solution through tuesday morning...then
ecmwf solution...which does not bring strong cold front into the
coastal waters like the gfs does. No small craft advisory conditions
expected at midweek at this time...but later forecasts will need to
be monitored for possible changes. 35

New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 03-08-2009 07:32 AM

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
710 am cdt sun mar 8 2009

Radar showed very isolated showers across extreme southwest
mississippi and near btr. Sounding some instability below a lid
near 825mb. A little heating may continue isolated coverage today.
Ergo...added slight chance to grid.


.prev discussion... /issued 409 am cdt sun mar 8 2009/

short term...
A steady state of warm air advection will keep our weather warmer
than normal through mid week. Surface analysis showed a 1002mb low
over central plains and 1025mb high over florida. Southerly flow
was prevalent west of georgia and 60f dewpoint as far north as
southern arkansas. Upper air analysis and water vapor imagery
showed a vigorous disturbance over the texas panhandle and
associated axis neutrally tilted becoming negatively tilted today.
Moisture axis was from east texas to central illinois. South/north
orientation due to the upper level ridge over the gulf and
southeast conus. The short wave will dampen the ridge and position the
moisture axis more west to east through today...just north of the
forecast area. Pw values are expected to increase to 1.3 inches
across southern mississippi. However...low and mid layers will
increase in temp today through monday...thus capping any
convection. Temps of 85f may overcome this warm layer but not
today. Very isolated showers may develop underneath the cap across
extreme southwest mississippi and near the btr area today. Will
maintain 10 percent but no wording of precip for now. With short
wave and associated low moving east...the pressure gradient should
relax. Near saturation...wind decoupling inland overnight and mostly clear
skies will yield fog development...possible dense at times monday
and tuesday morning.

Long term...
The second wave...currently over the northwest conus...is
expected to deepen across the great basin and lift east of the
northern plains tuesday. The associated high is expected to be very
dense and both gfs and ecmwf are showing 1040mb high lee of the
rockies over montana tuesday night. The associated trough will
push east as the surf high builds and become expansive wednesday
and thursday across the central conus. Gfs and ecmwf display the high
and associated air mass pressing south pushing a boundary down
near the gulf coast wednesday night and stalling/dissolving
through friday. Meanwhile flow aloft remains southwest and moist.
If this solution holds...a temps should pull back to slightly
below norm thursday through saturday. Gfs more aggressively brings
developing system across next weekend while the surface slowly
weakens. Will maintain a slight chance of rain over next weekend
as confidence diminishes for day 6 and 7.

/preliminary 12z taf package/
similar to last couple of nights...morning stratus deck will mix out
around mid morning. Sct to bkn clouds will form between 4-6kft by
late morning and then should clear up this evening. Wind field will
be a little weaker overnight...so we may see more of a fog event
monday morning vice the stratus of the last couple of nights. This
would lend itself to ifr to lifr visibilities starting around 08z
monday...and continuing through the end of the forecast package at
12z monday. 35

A broad ridge of high pressure centered off the southeastern
atlantic seaboard will remain in place into monday. As the surface
low over kansas moves northeastward...pressure gradient will weaken
this morning. This will allow winds to relax somewhat. Will continue
the exercise caution for the outer waters until 15z...but guidance
shows winds and seas easing after that.

Looks like models are in fairly good agreement that a weak cold
front will approach the northern gulf coast thursday and stall
somewhere across the area friday. Generally expect wind speeds to
remain southerly or southeasterly through wednesday and then become
more easterly as the front stalls near the coast. 35

New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 03-09-2009 06:58 AM

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
506 am cdt mon mar 9 2009

.short term...overall not too much has changed in the thinking of
the mdls for the first 60 hrs. The mdls are in decent agreement with
the upper ridge remaining in place over the ern gulf and fl. This
will cause the front to basically stall out to our nw for the next 2
days before beginning to push se again wed. This will also cuase the
area to continue to see temps well abv normal.

Today...sw flow aloft will remain over the region with srly winds in
the ll continuing to advect warmer ll temps and moisture. Patchy
moderate to dense fog this morning will begin to dissipate after
sunrise with mostly sunny skies expected by 15z. By late mrng/midday
cu should start to develop but overall look for mostly sunny skies
through the day as a rather stubborn cap will keep just about
anything but isltd shra from developing at best. This will allow the
cwa to warm up nicely and with h85 temps around 11-12c today i see
no reason why upper 70s to lower 80s wont be widespread. Heading
into tonight fog will become an issue again. Fog this morning has
been somewhat of a problem but conditions are setting up where it
could be worse tonight and tomorrow night. Clear skies and light
winds will allow the region to cool and with dewpoints in the lower
60s patchy to areas of fog will develop again. It looks like there
could be larger sections of dense fog tonight and wed night and the
likelihood of having to issue a dense fog adv...especially for
locations along and north of i 12 and coastal ms.

Tomorrow could possibly be the warmest day so far this year with the
majority of the cwa in the lower 80s and some locations reaching the
mid 80s. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny and h925/h85
temps will be a tad warmer. This will lead to a rather warm mid
march day. By wednesday our front will finally begin to approach the
region. Clouds will become a little more of an issue and this will
have an effect on highs possibly causing highs to be 3-5 degrees
cooler than tue. Now if skies remain sunny and the front gets into
the cwa late wed aftn then temperatures could be a good bit warmer
than what i currently have in the fcst. Compressional heating ahead
of the front could lead to highs in the lower to mid 80s once again.
As for rain we will remain dry until the front moves in. Most of the
rain will be post frontal with the bulk of it remaining off to our n
and nw.

.long term...mdls continue to have some issues with the timing and
placement of the front heading into fri. Also there are some
significant differences b/t the gfs and ecmwf with the development
of a sfc low along the stalled front. The ecmwf has been the better
mdl of recent so i have trended twrds it for the weekend. Overall
confidence in the fcst is low after thu.

Thu the front will stall in the nrn gulf but with sw flow aloft
isltd to sct shra will continue to be possible over the area into
the weekend. Instability will be on the low end so i am not
expecting much in the way of tsra but a few isltd storms will be
possible. By saturday an upper level disturbance will be moving
through the desert sw. This where the ecmwf and gfs really begin to
diverge. The gfs has more of an open wave while the ecmwf closes off
an upper low in the sw. As mentioned earlier i tried to stick closer
to the ecmwf which develops a sfc low over the wrn gulf and moves it
to the ne as the upper low opens up pushes to the east late in the
weekend. This will keep rain chances over the cwa through the
weekend and into next week with the possibility of tsra activity
picking up sun and mon.

As for deviations to gui...i have stuck pretty close to the mav and
mex values through much of the fcst. The main changes were to highs
tue and wed where i have gone abv the mav gui by a few degrees. As
for pops due to the low confidence in the extended i just stuck with
the mex pops for now but could see us having to raise pops this
weekend. /cab/



/preliminary 12z tafs/
fog has settled in on the south shore at kmsy...where lifr ceilings
and visibilities are reported. Kmcb seeing mvfr ceilings at this
time. Expect other terminals to develop mvfr conditions...with a
short period of ifr around sunrise. As has been the case the past
several days...conditions will improve to vfr in the 15z-17z time
window. Pattern will repeat itself again after sunset...as weather
pattern has not changed. 35


More agreement between models this morning with front hanging up
around the coastline about thursday...where high pressure will
eventually bridge across the front...bringing north winds. For much
of the workweek however...winds will stay near or below 15 knots
with seas generally 4 feet or less. 35