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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-06-2009 07:52 AM

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
340 am cst fri feb 6 2009

.discussion...
Only minor and mainly cosmetic changes were made to the ongoing
forecast grids and products with the forecast reasoning remaining
basically the same during the period. The northwest flow regime
aloft will come to an end today as the upper trough over the
western atlantic continues to move east and ridging aloft shifts
east across the gulf coast region and southeast u.s. This upper ridge
will provide for dry conditions through the weekend. Southerly
flow become firmly established today and increase over the weekend
as a surface high remains centered over the southeast corner of
the country. A warming trend that began yesterday will continue
into the weekend with temperatures expected to be above normal
during the period. The first in a series of upper troughs/lows
that will move into the western u.s. And then eject northeast and
east into the central conus will give the forecast area a glancing
blow monday as it moves across the plains and into the upper
midwest. Southerly winds and moisture will increase ahead of this
system with a chance for showers both monday and monday night. The
cold front associated with this system will stall out well north
of the area. The next system will track farther south and move
across the southern plains and lower/mid mississippi valley
wednesday and push into the ohio valley on thursday. This feature
is expected to push a cold front across the forecast area
wednesday or wednesday evening with a better chance for showers as
well as thunderstorms. The passage of this cold front will lower
temperatures back toward seasonal values for the end of next week.
Yet another upper trough is forecast to move out of the western
u.s. Just beyond the forecast period and possibly affect the
forecast area during the valentine day weekend. 11

&&

.aviation...
Vfr through 12z saturday. 17

&&

.marine...
Expect winds to remain below 15 knots until tonight as southerly
flow becomes well established. Will likely be close to advisory
criteria as early as sunday evening. First cold front stalls over
the northern la/ms area and dissipates tue. The second much stronger
cold front will then move in on wed evening bringing a weak line of
sh/ts. Return flow ahead of both systems will increase until the
second front moves through wed evening. 17


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Joe-Nathan - 02-06-2009 09:56 AM

000
FXUS64 KLCH 061132
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
532 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH
GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...REMAINING BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. THIS DEEP PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY.

FURTHER-UP...A WARM RIDGE IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS LOUISIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT A WARMER AND MOISTER
AIR MASS ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE BENCHMARK NORMALS FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. ALSO...WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY ADVECTIONAL WINDS WILL PERSIST. THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
THE BENCHMARK NORMALS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE WARM-UP CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MARINE...
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SWELLS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING FROM 4 TO 5 SECONDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">OUTLOOK...
THE GFS MODEL NOW DEPICTS LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER SOUTH...
CLOSER TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A DEEPENING OKLAHOMA CYCLONE WILL
TRANSLATE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
DRAGGING ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS LOUISIANA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 71 55 74 58 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
KBPT 74 57 75 59 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
KAEX 73 50 75 54 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
KLFT 71 52 73 56 75 / 10 10 10 10 10


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 02-07-2009 01:15 AM

FXUS64 KLIX 070447
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1047 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2009

.UPDATE...
WITH A 1034MB HIGH OVER NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS
PREVALENT OVER MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...ALBEIT LIGHT.
HOWEVER...RIDGE AXIS FROM THE HIGH WEST ACROSS COASTAL MISSISSIPPI
AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAS PROVIDED NEAR CALM WINDS. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROPPED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND
NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. WILL LOWER LOWS TO MATCH ONGOING.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON PACKAGE IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OVER NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS RETURNED...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE HAS BEEN RATHER LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES JUMPED CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE LEVELED
OFF SINCE 18Z. RANGE AT 20Z FROM 63 AT PQL TO 72 AT BTR. DEW
POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A CUMULUS FIELD BEING
OBSERVED OVER THE WEST HALF OF LOUISIANA...BUT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT CUMULUS FIELD TO
REDEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER LAND AREAS BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. ADVECTION FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE FOR
TONIGHT AS DEW POINTS STILL WELL BELOW WATER TEMPERATURE. STILL
SOME POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG.

AS FIRST SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND PASSES
WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AND ACCEPTED. 35

LONG TERM...
MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY MOVED AWAY FROM ANY SOLUTION PHASING
STREAMS. A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH
PASSAGES OF SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTHWEST ABOUT EVERY 48 HOURS NEXT
WEEK. THIS BRINGS FRONTAL SYSTEMS NEAR OR THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS. GFS HAS THE WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE
BEING THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE FRIDAY
SHORTWAVE STRONGER. WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION
FOR NOW...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...50 PERCENT...ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE MAY BE COOLING TEMPS OFF A LITTLE TOO MUCH FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND KEPT MINS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
WOULD INDICATE. 35


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-07-2009 07:16 AM

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
337 am cst sat feb 7 2009

.discussion...
The main forecast focus remains on rain chances for the upcoming
work week. The forecast logic basically remains the same with
again only minor changes made to the forecast package. A ridge of
high pressure at the surface and aloft over the gulf coast region
will dominate the forecast area through the weekend with dry and
warm conditions expected. Low level southerly flow will continue
to advect moisture northward from the gulf with the possibility of
some fog tonight...especially for areas adjacent to the near
coastal waters and tidal lakes where higher dew points advecting
over the relatively cool waters may result in some more concentrated
areas fog. Otherwise...partly cloudy skies can be expected through
sunday.

The first in a series of upper troughs that will move into the
southwest u.s. And then eject northeast and east into the central
conus will give the forecast area a glancing blow monday as it
moves across the plains and into the upper midwest. Southerly
winds and moisture will increase ahead of this system with a
chance for showers both monday and monday night. The cold front
associated with this system will remain well north of the area.
The next system will track farther south and move across the
southern plains and lower/mid mississippi valley wednesday and
push into the ohio valley on thursday. This feature is expected to
push a cold front across the forecast area wednesday with a
better chance for showers and thunderstorms. The passage of this
cold front will lower temperatures back toward seasonal values for
the last half of the week...although temperatures will still
remain somewhat above normal. Another upper trough is forecast
to eject out of the southwest u.s. Moving into the central conus
for the end of the week bringing another frontal passage and chance
of rain to the area friday and friday night. Yet another system
may affect the area toward the end of next weekend. 11

&&

.aviation...
Increasing low level moisture continues to advect into the forecast
area tonight. This strong moisture advection combined with very
cool water temperatures in the 50s over the nearshore coastal waters
have combined to bring ceilings and some patchy dense fog to kgpt
tonight. The ceilings at this time remain in the vfr range...but
a dip to mvfr cannot be ruled out through around 14z. At
kmsy...ceilings are also in the vfr range...and should remain
there through 14z. After 14z...expect a scattered to broken deck
around 5000 through the day. Given this...vfr conditions will
prevail at least through 06z. However...it appears that low clouds
and fog will be more prevalent after 06z tomorrow. This is due to
the continued pattern of strong moisture advection over cooler
water temperatures which will allow for saturation of the airmass.
Expect patchy dense fog to be possible at kgpt and kmsy...with
ceilings dropping into the mvfr and possibly ifr range. At kbtr
and kmcb...ceilings should not be a concern by some ifr fog
conditions will be possible. 32

&&

.marine...
Persistent southeasterly flow will increase over the next 24 to 48
hours...as the pressure gradient tightens between a strong high
pressure system in the southeast...and a deepening area of low
pressure expected to pull into the southern plains. Expect exercise
caution conditions to develop by tomorrow...with small craft
advisory conditions possible by tomorrow night. The first low will
pull into the midwest on monday...but small craft conditions
conditions could persist through wednesday...as another area of low
pressure develops in the southern plains. Seas will build through
the workweek...as it appears that a fairly decent swell train of 1
to 2 feet on top of the wind driven waves will feed into the coastal
waters. This could push seas up to near 9 or 10 feet by the time
wednesday rolls around...even though winds will remain in the 20 to
25 knot range. A cold front will slide through wednesday
night...allowing winds and seas to fall below advisory criteria as
the flow turns northerly and a weak ridge of high pressure builds
in. 32


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 02-07-2009 08:46 AM

Quote:ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070957
SPC AC 070957

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST SAT FEB 07 2009

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS COMING TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...

THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...WITHIN A
PROMINENT SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR WESTERLIES...IS PROGGED TO
RAPIDLY LIFT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG NEW SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS IT TRACKS TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES AT A MORE SOUTHERN LATITUDE THAN THE PRIOR SYSTEM.
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...COUPLED WITH A CONTINUED
GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS. THIS MAY COMMENCE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHERE A SIZABLE NUMBER OF MREF
MEMBERS INDICATE MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. GIVEN
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING
LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE GULF STATES...STRONG WESTERLY MEAN FLOW
IN EXCESS OF 50 KT MAY ADVECT THE SQUALL LINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EASTERN GULF STATES WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...BEFORE ACTIVITY
WEAKENS IN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT A
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY CUT-OFF NORTHWARD GULF MOISTURE
RETURN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONG FORCING...IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...IS TOO LOW OR UNCERTAIN TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT.

ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE
STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
BUT...THE SPREAD AMONG MREF MEMBERS BECOMES TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY
DETERMINE ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

[Image: day48prob.gif]


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 02-07-2009 04:58 PM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
309 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL GIVE THE REGION SEVERAL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE SEVEN DAYS. IN THE SHORT TERM
THE SURFACE HIGH HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED. DEWPOINTS HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCREASE THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH EASTERLY
TRAJECTORIES TO LIMIT THE RAPID RUN-UP OF MOISTURE UNTIL LATE
MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT CURRENT
DEWPPOINTS COMBINED WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL
LIKELY PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES SEVERAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THEN EJECT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...BUT REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON RAIN CHANCES. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND PUSH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. MODEL RUNS VARY
OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO AS TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MAIN
TROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK TO INTRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN ENERGY WILL PAST
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD AND SUBSEQUENT
SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS REGION...500 MB WIND IN
EXCESS OF 50KT...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE RETURN AND
ANY POTENTIAL IMPACT OF MID LEVEL WARMING WHICH MAY SUPPRESS
DEVELOPMENT. THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONAL VALUES FOR THE LAST HALF LATER
THIS WEEK. SOUTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AND
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&
.AVIATION...
...PRELIMINARY 00Z TAFS...
CUMULUS FIELD A LITTLE MORE EXPANSIVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT
MAINLY AROUND 850 MB. DEW POINTS OVER THE GULF APPEAR TO BE IN THE
LOWER 50S...NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE WATER TEMPERATURES...AND IT
MAY BE A WHILE BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE REACHES THE AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SCREAMING ADVECTION FOG OVERNIGHT...AND MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED AWAY FROM SOCKING THINGS IN. MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY AT KMCB AND KGPT...WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS. 35
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-08-2009 08:39 AM

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
348 am cst sun feb 8 2009

.discussion...
Ridging at the surface and aloft over the gulf coast region and
southeast u.s. Will continue to shift to the east today and
tonight. The first in a series of fast moving short wave troughs
will eject out of the four corners region today and move northeast
into the plains tonight and monday resulting in increasing
southerly flow and low level moisture return from the gulf. The
energy associated with this first system will pass well to the
north of the forecast area which...in combination with rather
shallow moisture...will result in in only a small chance for
showers monday. Moisture will gradually increase and deepen across
the area monday night and tuesday in advance of the second short
wave trough that will move out of the southwest conus. This system
is forecast to take a more southerly route and track across the
southern plains tuesday night and across the lower/mid mississippi
valley and into the ohio valley wednesday. A cold front associated
with this system will move across the forecast area wednesday and
wednesday evening. Although the best forcing with this system is
likely to remain north of the forecast area...models do forecast
a strong wind field and an impressive shear profile will be
present over the central gulf coast region. However...the depth of the
moisture return is questionable and mid level capping may suppress
convective development to some degree. The possibility of strong
to locally severe thunderstorms...however...can not be ruled out
wednesday. The passage of this cold front will lower temperatures
back toward seasonal normals thursday after several days of well
above normal temperatures.

A third system will move out of the west and across the central
section of the country late in the work week... Pushing another
cold front across the area friday night with another chance for
rain. Yet a fourth system may impact the forecast area late next
weekend...just beyond the forecast period. 11

&&

.aviation...
Strong southerly flow off the gulf of mexico will continue pump low
level moisture into the region. However...boundary layer winds
will continue to increase through the day and into tonight...which
will limit fog formation for most locations. However...an elevated
inversion may still be in place...with a period of broken low
clouds in the mfr range possible after 06z. Otherwise...vfr
conditions will be the rule for today and tonight at all
terminals. 32

&&

.marine...
Increasing southerly gradient flow will allow for exercise caution
conditions to develop over the coastal waters this afternoon. This
southerly flow will continue to increase tonight...as a fast
moving area of low pressure swings out of the four corners and
into the southern plains. Expect small craft advisory conditions
for tonight...but have held off on issuing any actual advisories
at this time. This is mainly due to concerns over the fairly moist
boundary layer limiting the downward transport of stronger winds
aloft toward the surface. However...it appears that the marginal
advisory conditions will persist through wednesday...as another
area of low pressure pulls into the southern plains. Seas may
actually be a bit higher tuesday into wednesday...as a weak swell
train from the central gulf of mexico works in. This low will then
pull into the tennessee valley...forcing a frontal boundary
through the region wednesday night. Winds will ease as a weak
ridge of high pressure builds in for thursday and friday. 32


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 02-09-2009 01:11 AM

FXUS64 KLIX 082116
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
316 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WEST OF TAMPA. LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA IS PUMPING PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TEXAS.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME WESTERN LOUISIANA...BUT
THOSE ARE MOVING NORTHWARD AND NOT TOWARD OUR AREA. WE HAVE JUST
SEEN SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
COASTLINE AND TIDAL LAKES. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. NOTE THAT THE BOOTHVILLE OBSERVATION IS
NON-REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS WHICH SHOULD BE
REPAIRED TOMORROW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
SOUTHERN STREAM HAS DEFINITELY BECOME MORE ACTIVE. CURRENT UPPER
LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY. NO FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS DEW
POINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 50S...OVER 60+ DEGREE WATER...ANY
OVERNIGHT FOG WILL BE RADIATIONAL IN NATURE...NOT ADVECTIVE.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. NEXT
WAVE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THAT ONE. TRACK OF SECOND WAVE WILL
BE SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...AND
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS FAIRLY CLOSE ON
TIMING WITH SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE WIND FIELDS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE WEATHER...MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A FAIRLY STOUT CAP OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF THUNDER AND POTENTIAL SEVERE...PER SPC DAY 4-8
OUTLOOK...FOR CONTINUITY...BUT THREAT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE QUITE
AS HIGH AS IT WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...AND HIGHS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
SOUTHERN STREAM TO REMAIN ACTIVE...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER ONE JUST AFTER
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ON PRESIDENTS DAY. STILL SOME
TIMING ISSUES INVOLVED WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...AND GFS APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE WITH THE PRESIDENTS DAY SYSTEM...SO WILL NOT GET DETAILED
AT THIS TIME...OTHER THAN TO INDICATE THAT THURSDAY AND SUNDAY
APPEAR TO BE THE DRY DAYS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY. 35
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 02-09-2009 06:06 AM

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
413 am cst mon feb 9 2009

.discussion...
Latest surface analysis showed a deepening low over the northern
and central plains with southeast flow from the dakotas to
louisiana and mississippi...albeit light across the forecast area.
Sounding from sunday evening revealed a southeast flow from the
surface to 575mb and a massive inversion from about 850 to 700mb.
Upper air analysis showed the ridge axis from northeast gulf to
the northern plains and a negatively tilted short wave wyoming to
north central oklahoma. This wave should have little influence on
our weather today. West flow above 500mb and southerly flow in the
lower levels will add moisture to the column or atm over forecast
area. However...mid layers will remain dry today and actually
through tuesday morning. Only expect isolated showers through
tuesday as the massive inversion caps vertical development through mid
day tuesday. Vigorous short wave...currently over the
california...is expected to drive a surface boundary through the
forecast area wednesday morning. Dynamics may stay north but
strong storms...possibly a severe storm two...may develop over the
forecast area late tuesday night into wednesday. Pacific system
will not drive the associated surface boundary too far south into
the coastal waters wednesday and thursday. Ergo...the next short
wave that tracks east across the mid section conus will tap the
old boundary north across the area friday...push south saturday
and then meander north again as another pacific system approaches
the mid mississippi valley on sunday.

&&

.aviation...
/preliminary 12z tafs/

vfr conditions will prevail at all of the terminals through 00z.
However...strong southerly flow of 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25
knots will be possible at all terminals today. These winds are
being driven by a rapidly tightening gradient between a high
centered over the southeastern states...and a deepening area of low
pressure pull into the southern plains. These should weaken into
the 10 to 15 knot range after 00z...as a weak elevated inversion
develops. However...do not expect calm conditions at any terminals
for tonight. With an elevated inversion in place...the prospect for
some ceilings developing after 06z will exist. At this time...the
most likely areas for mvfr and possibly brief ifr ceilings will be
at kgpt and kmsy. At kmcb and kbtr...some mvfr ceilings could set
up closer to 12z. 32

&&

.marine...

Increasing southerly flow resulting for a tightening gradient
between a strong surface ridge parked over the southeastern
states...and a series of pacific low pressure systems pulling into
the southern plains will be the main impact to the coastal waters
and tidal lakes through midweek. Exercise caution conditions are
currently taking place over the coastal waters...and expect these
conditions to spread to the tidal lakes today. Over the coastal
waters...although winds should remain in the exercise caution range
with gusts over advisory levels...expect a long fetch across the
gulf of mexico to bring in higher seas which has prompted the
issuance of a small craft advisory for higher seas. This long fetch
will allow a decent swell train of 1 to 2 feet to spread into the
coastal waters today...and probably persist through midweek. On
wednesday...the ridge over the southeast will break down...allowing
a frontal boundary to sweep through. In the wake of this front...a
weak ridge of high pressure will build into the gulf south...while
the front stalls over the northern gulf of mexico. Winds and seas
will quickly fall below advisory criteria wednesday night. These
conditions should persist into thursday night. However...another
area of low pressure will then sweep through on friday. Exercise
caution conditions are expected to return for friday in advance of
this low. A front will sweep through friday night...allowing
another area of high pressure to build in for saturday with lighter
winds and calmer seas. 32


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 02-10-2009 01:41 AM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1147 PM CST MON FEB 9 2009

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS LOCATED ALONG A GAO TO MSY TO HMG LINE
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TOTALS RANGING FROM A TRACE TO NEAR ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. STEADY SE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INCREASE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY DROP OFF
AFTER SUNSET...BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED. MVFR CIGS
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS