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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-15-2009 05:55 AM

000
fxus64 klix 151000
afdlix

area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
400 am cst thu jan 15 2009

.discussion...
Main forecast concerns continue to center around the very cold
temperatures expected across the forecast area through friday
night. The second surge of cold air this week was making its way
south toward the gulf coast early this morning. This surge...however...
Will be significantly colder than the last surge. Temperatures
were in the teens as far south as northern oklahoma...northern
arkansas and sections of tennessee. The cold front will push south
across the area this morning and cold air advection today should
limit daytime maximum temperatures to the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Very cold temperatures will be on tap tonight and friday night as
a 1048 mb surface centered over the northern plains this morning
moves south into the mid mississippi valley tonight and settles
into the southeast and gulf coast region friday night. A hard
freeze warning has been issued for tonight for southwest and
coastal mississippi and those areas of southeast and east central
louisiana north of a donaldsonville to lake pontchartrain line
where low temperatures will fall into the lower and mid 20s for
several hours tonight. A freeze warning has been issued for
tonight for those areas south of the donaldsonville to lake
pontchartrain line...including the new orleans metro area...where
light freeze is expected as minimum temperatures overnight fall
into the upper 20s to lower 30s for a few hours. The exception to
this will be extreme lower plaquemines parish...boothville
area...where temperatures are expected to remain above the
freezing mark.

Friday will only see high temperatures climb into the 40s which
will then be followed by another very cold night with the surface
ridge in place across the forecast area allowing winds to die down
and providing for excellent radiational cooling conditions under
mostly clear skies. Another hard freeze is expected friday night
across south mississippi and north of the donaldsonville to lake
pontchartrain line...while south of this line another light freeze
is expected. In some locations... Primarily across south
mississippi and the northshore of southeast louisiana...the low
temperatures friday night may be a bit lower than the temperatures
tonight.

Temperatures will moderate over the weekend...however another cold
front will push south across the forecast area sunday and provide
for a small chance of rain late saturday night and during the day
sunday. Temperatures behind this front will not be nearly as cold
with the brunt of the colder air bypassing us to the northeast.
Yet another reinforcing cold front will move across the area early
tuesday. Temperatures will then warm during the middle of next
week as the persistent mean upper trough over the eastern u.s.
Moves off the atlantic coast while the upper level ridge over the
western conus shifts east into the middle of the country.

&&

.aviation...
/preliminary 12z taf package/
arctic cold front approaching the area this morning. As it
passes...sustained winds are expected to increase once again into
the 12-15 knot range by late morning with gusts in the 20s. Some
temporary ceilings as low as bkn040 will develop as the back end of
the trough moves through around noon for mcb and thinning out by 3pm
for remaining sites to the south. Vfr conditions should continue
through friday. 17

&&

.marine...
A strong arctic cold front is approaching the coastal waters this
morning. Winds will rapidly increase from 5 to 10 knots to around 20
knots for most marine areas as it passes. Caution statements are set
for the tidal lakes but winds rapidly increasing can cause hazardous
conditions for small craft. Small craft advisories have been
raised for all gulf coastal waters for this morning and includes the
tidal lakes by evening. Winds and seas will lower friday as high
pressure settles in for the next few days. Another front moves into the
area for sunday. 17


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-15-2009 04:17 PM

Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA1127 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009...ARCTIC COLD AIR INVADES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS WEEK....ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGHPRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS ARCTIC COLDFRONT WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTERSEASON TO DATE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTLOUISIANA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.LAZ056>070-160000-/O.CON.KLIX.FZ.W.0002.090116T0400Z-090116T1500Z/ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PIERRE PART...LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...RESERVE...​THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...VIOLET...HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...GALLIANO...CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...YSCLOSKEY1127 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO9 AM CST FRIDAY...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO9 AM CST FRIDAY.AS ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...TEMPERATURESARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH FREEZING AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHTAND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT ANDEARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY REMAIN JUST ABOVEFREEZING OVERNIGHT IS THE EXTREME LOWER PORTION OF PLAQUEMINESPARISH AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OFTERREBONNE...LAFOURCHE...AND JEFFERSON PARISHES.A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT ORHIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHERSENSITIVE VEGETATIO


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-15-2009 09:50 PM

FXUS64 KLIX 152213
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CST THU JAN 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE COLD BUT NOT RECORD COLD THE NEXT COUPLE
NIGHTS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. HAVE QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH NATCHEZ 15 DEGREES
COLDER THAN BATON ROUGE AS OF 3 PM. TONIGHT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER
THAN THE THERMOMETER READS...AS A BITING WIND NEAR 10 MPH NORTH
AND 10 TO 15 MPH SOUTH WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS.
BECAUSE OF THE WARMER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY AND THE GUIDANCE
COMING IN A BIT WARMER...HAVE RAISED THE LOWS TONIGHT A COUPLE
DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT WILL LEAVE THE HARD FREEZE WARNING
AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY INTACT ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS INTO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...BECAUSE
THE WIND WILL MAKE UP FOR ANY LONGER DURATION OF HARD FREEZE
TEMPERATURES...26 DEGREES OR LOWER. BATON ROUGE MAY NOT GET BELOW
15 DEGREES WIND CHILL...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MORE OPEN
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND COLDER WIND
CHILLS. THE EAST BANK OF METRO NEW ORLEANS MAY ONLY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 32 DEGREES...BUT SOME OUTLYING AREAS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. THE
FREEZE WARNING SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...AND THESE AREAS CAN
ALSO EXPECT WIND CHILL READINGS TO DROP TO NEAR 20 LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY THIN AND GET SHOVED BACK SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

THE MEAN DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL VARY IN
POSITION AND STRENGTH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AS ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY MOVES EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
WHILE ANOTHER STRONG WAVES DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DROP OFF TO LIGHT TO NEAR CALM VALUES. SINCE
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 40S FRIDAY...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT...RANGING FROM AROUND 20 OVER
MUCH OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ON THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. HARD FREEZE AND FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...SO ALL PRECAUTIONS TAKEN TONIGHT
WILL HAVE TO REPEATED FRIDAY NIGHT


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-16-2009 06:34 AM

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fxus64 klix 160930
afdlix

area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
330 am cst fri jan 16 2009

.short term.
Arctic high settling into tn and oh valley with ridge extending sw
into ms and la. Cold advection seemed to be lagging overnight and
combined with sfc wind and some high clouds streaming across area
making enough impact to keep temps a bit higher than anticipated.
Cold advection still in place through day so max temps should
remain in the mid or upper 40s. With ridge in place over area
tonight...winds should be much lighter tonight and very dry
airmass in place supporiing good radiational affects. With lower
max temps this afternoon as a starting point for
cooling ...saturday morning mins should be colder in most
locations than this morning...with coldest reading east of i-55
into coastal ms. Have generally gone a few degrees below mav
guidance. Will go with hard freeze warning tonight for sw ms...and
in se la from n of btr to n of lake pontchartrain through the ms
coast with several hours of 26 of less expected. Will keep btr out
of hard freeze warning at this time as area on w periphery of sfc
ridge...expecting min temps of 26 or above. Expecting light freeze
in areas south of lake pontchartain tonight...and will keep area
in freeze warning.


The mean deep upper trough remains anchored over the eastern conus
into early next week. Central gulf coast gets a warm-up saturday
and saturday night prior to next short wave and surge of colder
air at the surface. Latest model run has increased moisture late
sat night and early sun...and have nudged pops upward a bit though not
as much as mav guidance. Should some light rain develop late sat
night and continue into sun before pushing east. Next airmass
not as cold as previous system with coldest temps in the lower or
mid 30s.

.long term...
After sunday night dry forecast in place as deep upper trough
holds across eastern conus with dry nw flow regime. By
wed/trhu...upper ridge builds into region with warming trend.
21


&&
.aviation...
/preliminary 12z taf package/

vfr conditions will be the rule at all terminals. Winds will remain
gusty at kmsy through around 15z before dying off as a ridge of high
pressure builds in. This high will remain over the area through
saturday morning...allowing for clear conditions. 32

&&

.marine...

Have decided to downgrade the small craft advisory to exercise
caution for the tidal lakes based off the winds currently occurring
over lake pontchartrain...and the expectation that winds will
continue to diminish as a strong surface ridge becomes centered over
the gulf south. Over the remainder of the coastal waters have kept
up the small craft advisory through 18z. Expect a rapid dropoff is
winds and seas through the afternoon and evening hours as the
surface ridge settles in. Winds and seas will remain below advisory
levels for saturday...but another strong cold front will impact the
region sunday into monday. Expect small craft conditions to
redevelop sunday and persist into tuesday as another surge of cold
arctic air swings through. 32


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-16-2009 08:37 AM

[Image: HWO.png]


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-17-2009 07:22 AM

000
fxus64 klix 171012
afdlix

area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
412 am cst sat jan 17 2009

.short term...
Hard freeze warning is in effect and on track at pascagoula.
However...gulfport was 33f at 10z and a hard freeze is not likely
this morning. Clouds were over west louisiana and north
mississippi and increased thickness values have somewhat prevented
temps from decreasing to the lower 20s. Will clean up around 6
am.

Latest surface analysis showed the 1038mb high over virginia with
ridge axis extending to the lower mississippi valley. A 1004mb low
was located over northern minnesota with the trough axis southwest
to northeast new mexico. Upper air analysis revealed a short over
north dakota to montana. Ir satellite imagery showed this wave
pushing south across nebraska. Northwest flow was in place over
the plains and mississippi valley this morning. 00z sat sounding
at slidell precipitable water value was 0.37 inch and gfs
initialized 0.5 to 0.7 inch across east texas. Short wave over
nebraska will dive south to the base of the trough by midday
sunday. As a result...moisture over east texas and addition
moisture will advect east ahead of short wave. Pooling of the
moisture will increase pw values up to 1.2 inches over the
forecast area sunday morning...according to gfs and nam. Lapse
rates will become steep east of the area...so just expecting showers.
Increase moisture has prompted our decision to increase pops up to
likely for sunday...mainly morning. Upper level trough will remain over
the east conus...diving disturbances on the back side of the main
trough may produce clouds across the area...mainly north
zones...monday night and tuesday. The main trough will lift east
of the atlantic wednesday and upper level ridge moves over the
mississippi valley. Meanwhile...a pacific system moves across the
interior rockies. The system...somewhat weakens over plains...will
drive an axis across the lower mississippi valley
friday...according to gfs. Ecmwf brings a very weaken system over
the weekend. Will keep rain chances on friday and cloud grid
slightly above 50 over the weekend.

&&

.aviation...
/preliminary 12z taf package/

low level moisture will continue to feed into the region
today...allowing for a cloud deck to develop around 5000 feet at
kbtr and kmcb after 00z tonight. However...expect vfr conditions to
be the rule at all terminals through forecast period...as boundary
layer winds are expected to increase through the night. This will
prohibit any deep inversions...and thus fog formation toward 12z
sunday. 32

&&

.marine...

High pressure currently over the gulf south will pull toward the
eastern seaboard today. This will allow for increasing southerly
flow to develop late today into tonight. A strong area of low
pressure developing the northern plains will sweep into the
northeast on sunday...forcing a strong cold front through the
coastal waters. Winds and seas will increase dramatically on
sunday...with small craft conditions likely by sunday afternoon.
These conditions will persist into tuesday...as a secondary frontal
system reinforces deep northwesterly flow aloft and much cooler and
drier airmass at the surface. Winds will then begin to wane on
wednesday...as surface ridging becomes centered over the gulf
south. The ridge will shift toward the eastern seaboard on
thursday...allowing for increased southerly flow. However...do not
expect a return to small craft conditions until next weekend...as
another strong front possibly moves through the region. 32


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-17-2009 12:00 PM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
741 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009

.UPDATE...
CANCELLED NPW FOR NEW ORLEANS AND SOUTH OF TIDAL LAKE...PASCAGOULA
AND FEW UNOFFICIAL STILL FLIRTING WITH HARD FREEZE


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 01-17-2009 05:25 PM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 172142
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009

.SHORT TERM...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND MIDDLE CLOUDS AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR 50. THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
LATELY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE VERY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE
WEAK FRONTAL LIFT AND WEAK 500 MB POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TO
ACT AS TRIGGERS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
COOL DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE WEEK AS STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES ITS HOLD ON THE GULF SOUTH. BY MID WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. THIS WILL ALL AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO 60S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRELIMINARY 00Z TAF PACKAGE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
RAIN AT EACH TERMINAL WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KTS. HOWEVER...A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HOURS SURROUNDING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 95/DM

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO CALM ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY
WITH A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW. 95/DM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 48 61 36 57 / 40 40 10 10
BTR 49 65 39 61 / 30 40 10 10
MSY 51 67 43 59 / 20 50 10 10
GPT 49 64 37 58 / 20 50 10 10


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-18-2009 07:49 AM

000
fxus64 klix 180923
afdlix

area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
323 am cst sun jan 18 2009

.short term...

A cold front currently slicing through northern louisiana will
pass through the cwa today. Scattered showers have developed ahead
of the front over the northern half of the cwa tonight...and
expect scattered showers to continue to overspread the forecast
area through the morning hours. By this afternoon...the fast
moving frontal boundary should be clearing the louisiana
coast...with showers mainly pulling offshore. The front will clear
the entire forecast area by this evening...allowing a much drier
and cooler airmass to build in from the north. This dry airmass
will remain in place through mid-week.

Deep northerly flow will continue through midweek as a strong upper
level low remains entrenched over the great lakes and northeast.
Within this deep flow a second vort lobe will swing through the
region monday night. This secondary surge will usher in a modified
arctic airmass for tuesday and tuesday night. Temperatures should
be a good 10 degrees below normal...with a freeze possible on the
south shore.

.long term...

Going beyond midweek...the low over the great lakes will finally
lift to the northeast on thursday...allowing an upper level ridge
over texas to build into the lower mississippi valley. In the low
levels...strong surface ridging will shift eastward...allowing for
southerly flow off the gulf of mexico to take hold. The airmass
will take some time to moisten up...but expect a good surge of
moisture to work in from the central gulf of mexico thursday
night. At the same time...the overall pattern will turn more zonal
in the upper levels...with a series of fast moving pacific systems
moving through the region. The problem with the extended forecast
is that overall confidence in the timing of these pacific
systems...and the exact strength of the fronts associated with
them is very low. The gfs and ecmwf have widely varying
solutions...so have decided to simply go with a blend of the
models at this time.

With this in mind...it appears that the first system will impact
the region on friday...as a fast moving vort max pulls out of the
rockies and quickly moves into the tennessee valley. The overall
trough axis will positively tilted...which will limit the southward
push of the associated surface front. Have decided to go with a
forecast where the front hangs up over the cwa as the best
dynamics associated with the upper level trough quickly pull
toward the mid-atlantic states. This will keep a chance of showers
and cloud cover over the region through the weekend...along with
near normal tempeartures. A second vort max should pull into the
southern plains sometime in the sunday to monday time
frame...which will keep unsettled over the region into early next
week.

&&

.aviation...
/preliminary 12z taf package/
.aviation...
Light showers were noted from west central georgia to southwest
louisiana...mainly affected btr and mcb this morning. Model sounding
through today showed meager instability...cape value increases up to
180 j/kg this morning. Will leave ts out of all four tafs for now.
Cold front...currently entering northwest louisiana...will push
through the area today. Southerly winds will gradually shift to west
and then nw behind the boundary. Expect gusts to reach 20 kts.
Clearing behind the front and then high clouds moving in late in the
period. Vfr cigs will drop to mvfr through the night and then lift
as the front pushes through. Vfr conditions expected mainly after
20z at all four taf sites. 18

&&

.marine...
The pressure gradient is expected to tighten ahead of the
approaching cold front and southwest flow will strengthen this
morning. A strong area of low pressure over the great lakes will
drag the cold front through the coastal waters today with winds and
seas increasing behind the front. Small craft conditions are
expected today and persist until late tuesday as a secondary strong
surge of cool and dry air moves into the region. Winds and seas will
begin to calm on wednesday as a surface ridge becomes more centered
over the area. The ridge will begin to shift eastward on thursday
with a return to onshore flow.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 01-19-2009 05:19 AM

000
fxus64 klix 190930
afdlix

area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
330 am cst mon jan 19 2009

.synopsis...
First cold front well out into the gulf of mexico...with secondary
front moving into the texarkana area. Second front is accompanied
by mid and high level cloud deck likely to reach our area shortly
after sunrise. At least immediately behind the front...there does
not seem to be a signficant drop in temperatures or dew points.
Temperatures at 09z generally in the 40s...except at mccomb where
it is 36...and lakefront airport which is reporting 53.
&&

.short term...
Second cold front will move through the area by early afternoon.
This and more cloud cover should prevent high temperatures from
getting as warm as they were on sunday. Met numbers look slightly
better than mav numbers for today. As low pressure develops over
the carolinas...gradient tightens a little bit and colder air
filters in for tonight through tuesday night. Will trend toward
mav numbers for temperatures during that period...as met/fwc
numbers were a little too aggressive in chilling us with the last
airmass. We begin a moderating trend on wednesday as high moves
southeast of the area and we get in return flow. Mav numbers again
look better than met...but will trim a degree or two from the mav.
35
&&

.long term...
Finally...eastern trof begins to lift out on thursday...and flow
becomes more zonal. Gfs and ecmwf go their separate ways after
about thursday. Gfs hangs front up near the area for the
weekend...while ecmwf pushes it south of the coastal waters. Will
continue the small chances of precipitation through the
weekend. Ecmwf has been verifying better in the medium range with
most of the systems over the last several weeks. With either
solution...gfs temps for saturday appear to be too warm.
Temperature forecast has been trended to better fit the surface
pattern that the ecmwf depicts...below gfs for saturday and
sunday. 35
&&

.aviation...
/06z and 12z taf package/
mostly clear skies and unrestricted visibilities are expected today
through early tuesday. High clouds may increase a bit today from the
northwest and there may a few to sct low clouds with bases near 3000
feet also developing around 18z...but conditions will remain vfr
through at least wednesday. 18
&&

.marine...
Will continue small craft advisory /sca/ into tuesday...tuesday
night for well offshore as waves will take some time to subside
below 7 feet. Winds may rise as high as 25 knots with gusts 30 to
35 knots late this afternoon...and 25 to 30 knots with gusts to 40
knots this evening as strong cold air advection takes place. 18