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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-22-2006 09:32 AM

Today: Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high around 85. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 67. North wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 85. East wind around 5 mph becoming south.

Sunday Night: Clear, with a low near 70. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-23-2006 11:01 AM

000
Fxus64 Klix 230825
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
325 Am Cdt Sun Apr 23 2006

.discussion...
Mid/upper Level Ridging Will Shift East Into The Mississippi Valley
Early In The Forecast Period Which In Combination With A Return Of
Southerly Flow Will Result In Warm And Increasingly Humid
Conditions Into The Early Work Week. The Ridge Flattens Out By
Tuesday And Rain Chances Return As Another Closed Low Ejects Out
Of The Southwest Conus And Weakens While A Mid/upper Trough Over
Eastern Canada Deepens And Moves Down Into The Eastern Conus
Pushing Another Cold Front Across The Forecast Area Tuesday Night
And Wednesday. Dry Conditions Will Return For The End Of The Week
With The Next Chance For Precipitation During The Last Half Of
Next Weekend.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-24-2006 08:18 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
425 Am Cdt Mon Apr 24 2006

.discussion...
Moisture Will Increase Quickly Tuesday. A Subtle Inverted Trough
Moving Westward From Fla Today Will Provide A Very Deep Moist
Atmos By Tue. Cape Values Around 4k Joules Will Provide A Volatile
Environment Once Heating Commences. A Weak Dry Slot At 750 Will
Provide A Neg Buoyancy Factor With Ts Causing Downbursting Winds
With The Strongest Ts. Some Of These May Reach High Enough ~60k`
To Develop Small Hail. With Capes As High As 4k Joules...some Of
These Ts Will Develop And Lift So Fast That Funnel Clouds May
Appear Temporarily. Can`t Rule Out A Few Waterspouts In Nearshore
Coastal Waters Either. A Short Reprieve From The Rain Will Begin
After Sunset Tue And Peak Once Again Wed Morning As A Cold Front
Moves Into The Area.

We Should Be Able To Tell When This Cold Front Moves Through Since
It Will Have A Pipeline To The North Bringing Down Some Cooler Air
And Low To Mid Level Clouds. Temps Should Cool From The Upper 60s
At Sunrise To The Lower 60s Around Noon Before Warming Into The
70s As The Clouds Dissipate And Winds Yield.


&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-24-2006 05:53 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
254 Pm Cdt Mon Apr 24 2006

.discussion...

Upper Level Ridging Will Remain In Place Tonight. However...this
Ridge Will Be Undercut By A Weak Inverted Trough Riding Around The
Base Of The Mid-level Ridge Into The Central Gulf Coast Tomorrow.
Some Enhanced Forcing Associated With This Mid-level Trough And An
Approaching Jet Streak Diving Down From The Central Plains Should
Allow Scattered Thunderstorms To Develop In The Afternoon Hours Across
The Cwa. It Appears That The Best Forcing Will Be Over Northern
Zones As The Jet Streak Will Primarily Be Focused On North
Louisiana And Mississippi. Steep Low Level Lapse Rates And High
Instability...along With Little Convective Inhibition Should Allow
A Few Of The Thunderstorms To Develop Deep Cores And Thus Pulse Up
To Severe. This Pattern Is Much More Similar To Something We Would
Expect In June Or July As Opposed To August. Some Mid-level Dry
Air Will Entrain Into A Few Of The Thunderstorms...increasing The
Chances For Wet Microbursts And Hail To Develop In The Stronger
Thunderstorms.

Going Into Tomorrow Night...the Pulse Type Storms Should Die Off
After Sunset...and Brief Lull In The Activity Should Take Place In
The Late Evening Hours. However...the Main Upper Level Trough Will
Slide Into The Midwest...dragging A Cold Front Into The Region. As
This Front Moves Through...a Line Of Showers And Thunderstorms
Should Develop And Advance Out Of Ahead Of The Front...as An Mcs
Type System. This Activity Should Push Through In The Early Morning
Hours. By The Afternoon...ample Daytime Heating Combined With The
Frontal Boundary Sliding Through...and Any Lingering Outflow
Boundaries From The Mcs Will Allow Scattered Showers And
Thunderstorms To Redevelop. Damaging Winds Will Once Again Be The
Main Threat From Any Severe Storms That Develop.

Strong Subsidence Will Develop Behind The Front...along With A
Decent Amount Of Cold Air Advection. Temperatures Will Fall Back
To Near Normal For This Time Of Year...and Low Humidities Can Be
Expected. This Ridge Will Shift To The East And Begin To Break
Down Over The Region On Saturday...as Another Trough Digs In From
The Plains. Another Cold Front Will Swing Through On Sunday And
Monday Providing Another Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms To
The Area.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-25-2006 06:02 AM

Fxus64 Klix 250950
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
450 Am Cdt Tue Apr 25 2006

.discussion...
Satellite Imagery Shows Numerous Mid/upper Level Disturbances/
Shortwave Features That Will Be Changing Our Weather By Bringing
Much Needed Rain To Most Of The Area The Next 24 To 36 Hours.
Surface Analysis Shows Warm And Humid Air Over The Area And Goes
S0under Precip Water Loops Shows Values Increasing South Of I-10
In South Central And Southeast La Into The 1 To 1.5 Inch Range.
The First Upper Level Disturbance...moving Along The La Coast And
Northwest Gulf Of Mexico...has Helped Spark Off Some Isolated
Showers And Even A Couple Thunderstorms Along And Just Inland From
The Coast...very Typical Of Summertime Nocturnal Development.

Moisture Will Continue To Increase With Precip Water Values Rising
Into The 1.5 To 1.8 Inch Range As Additional Disturbances Aloft
Move Into The Central Gulf Coast Region. The Mid And Upper Winds
Will Gradually Increase Today And Become Diffluent Over The Area.
Warm High Temperatures In The Mid 80s In Most Locations And Low
Level Moisture Convergence Will Make The Atmosphere Quite Unstable
With The Gfs Not Out Of Line Showing Lifted Indices Dropping Into
The -7 To -9 Range This Afternoon. Spc Has A Slight Risk Of Severe
Thunderstorms Over About The Northwest Half Of The Area And That
Appears Reasonable. Isolated Large Hail Up To Around Penny Size
And Damaging Straight Line Winds Are The Main Threats. Locally
Heavy Rainfall Is Also Possible...mainly Over Inland Areas Of East
Central And Southeast La...north Of I-10.

A Shortwave Trough Dropping Southeast Through The Mid Ms Valley On
Wednesday Will Push A Cold Front Through The Area. Additional
Lower Latitude Disturbances Passing Across The Gulf Coast May
Cause Mcs Development Late Tonight Near Our Coast Which Should
Help Increase Coverage Of Showers And Thunderstorms Ahead Of The
Cold Front...especially Wednesday Morning.

Wednesday Night...the Cold Front Will Move Through The Coastal
Waters And End The Threat Of Precip. Drier And Cooler Air Will
Move Into The Area Which Should Hold Through Friday. The Next
System May Bring Our Next Chance Of Rain Over The Weekend. The
Best Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms At This Time Appears To
Be Saturday Night And Sunday.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 84 67 74 53 / 60 50 60 10
Btr 85 68 77 56 / 60 50 60 10
Msy 84 71 79 61 / 50 40 80 20
Gpt 83 71 79 57 / 40 40 80 20

&&

.lix Watches/warnings/advisories...
La...none.
Gm...none.
Ms...none.
Gm...none.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-26-2006 06:48 AM

hort Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
507 AM CDT WED APR 26 2006

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-261300-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HAN****-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BATON ROUGE...BILOXI...GULFPORT...
BOGALUSA...GRAND ISLE...HAMMOND...HOUMA...MCCOMB...METAIRIE...
NEW ORLEANS...PASCAGOULA...PICAYUNE...SLIDELL
507 AM CDT WED APR 26 2006

.NOW...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH 8 AM.
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 15 TO 20
MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN ONE-HALF INCH AND ONE
INCH THIS MORNING.

$$


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-26-2006 07:07 AM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans La
630 Am Cdt Wed Apr 26 2006

Laz034>040-046>050-056>070-msz068>071-077-080>082-271100-
Amite-ascension-assumption-east Baton Rouge-east Feliciana-han****-
Harrison-iberville-jackson-livingston-lower Jefferson-
Lower Lafourche-lower Plaquemines-lower St Bernard-lower Terrebonne-
Orleans-pearl River-pike-pointe Coupee-st Charles-st Helena-st James-
St John The Baptist-st Tammany-tangipahoa-upper Jefferson-
Upper Lafourche-upper Plaquemines-upper St Bernard-upper Terrebonne-
Walthall-washington-west Baton Rouge-west Feliciana-wilkinson-
630 Am Cdt Wed Apr 26 2006

This Hazardous Weather Outlook Is For Portions Of Southeast
Louisiana And Southern Mississippi.

.day One...this Afternoon And Tonight

Isolated Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Are Possible Over The Region
Today. Rich...gulf Moisture And Daytime Heating Will Interact With
Weak Upper Level Disturbances And A Strong Cold Front To Focus
Thunderstorms Development Over Southeast Louisiana And Southern
Mississippi. Conditions Are Very Unstable. The Main Severe Weather
Threats Will Be Cloud To Ground Lightning...hail Up To Around Penny
Size...and Damaging Wind Gusts.

This Weather Will Occur As The Cold Front Moves Across South Central
Louisiana And Southwest Mississippi This Morning. The Front Will
Proceed To Extreme Southeast Louisiana And Coastal Mississippi
During The Afternoon. This Boundary Is Expected To Move Over The
Coastal Waters Of Mississippi By Tonight.

An Isolated Thunderstorm May Be Capable Of Producing Winds To 50
Mph. Should A Severe Thunderstorm Develop...winds Could Reach
Greater Than 60 Mph And Larger Hail Could Develop.

By Tonight...the Thunderstorm Threat Will Decrease. With The Loss
Of Daytime Heating And The Loss Of The Frontal Boundary...areal
Coverage And Intensity Will Diminish.

.days Two And Three...thursday And Friday

No Hazardous Weather Is Expected Thursday Through Friday Night.

.days Four Through Seven...saturday Through Tuesday

Thunderstorms Are Expected Saturday...as A Strong Low Pressure Area
Moves From The Southern Plains Into The Lower Mississippi River
Valley. Significant Wind Shear Is Expected With This System.
Therefore...isolated Strong To Severe Storms May Develop Through
Sunday Night.

No Thunderstorms Are Expected Monday And Tuesday.

.spotter Information Statement...
The Activation Of Storm Spotters...ham Radio Operators...and
Emergency Management Personnel...in Support Of Severe Weather
Operations...may Be Needed This Morning And This Afternoon.

$$


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-27-2006 05:32 AM

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Northeast wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. East wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: Cloudy, with a low near 71. Southeast wind around 15 mph.

Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 76. Breezy, with a southeast wind between 15 and 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy and windy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 50%.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-28-2006 07:06 AM

Rea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
352 Am Cdt Fri Apr 28 2006

.discussion...
What A Difference 24 Hours Makes. Movement Of Cold Front For The
Weekend Was Expected To Be Quick But Things Are Changing. The
Closed Low Over Southern Cal Will Move East And Open Into The Long
Wave Trough Beginning To Dig Over The Rockies. This Will Be The
First Round Of Weather. As The Upper Low Approaches...jet Level
Winds Split At 300mb Causing Some Strong Divergent Air To Evolve
Which Will Then Produce Strong Lift Below...hence We Have All The
Dynamics In Place To Help Enhance Ts Development Once We Have A
Forcing Mechanism To Attach The Sfc Air To The Mid Levels.

Clouds Will Begin To Fill The Skies Today First At The Upper
Levels And Then Gradually In The Mid Levels. If We Could Keep The
Cloudy Skies...severe Weather Ahead Of The System Would Not Be Too
Concerning. But It Seems That The Subsidence Ahead Of The Strong
Lift Involved With The Main Line Of Ts That Develop To The West Will
Provide Enough Subsident Warming Well Ahead Of The Line To Break
Us Free Of Cloudy Skies For Some Time Between Daybreak And Noon
Sat. If We Get Enough Heating...things Will Get Tricky Across The
Region With All Variables Possible With Severe Ts That Develop. So
Will Simply Call For Single Cell Isolated Severe Activity Across
Mainly The Eastern 2/3rds Of The Area Saturday. With Moisture
Loading Maximized...0-3km Helicity Values In The 350-400 Range Due
To Strong Low Level Jet And Vertical Speed Shear...along With
Steepening Lapse Rates As Cooler Air Moves Over The Area
Aloft...ts That Go Severe Will Be Capable Of Tornadoes...damaging
Straight Line Winds...large Hail...very Heavy Rainfall...and
Continuous Lightning.

The Atmosphere Will Gradually Become Less Conducive For Severe Ts
Especially Once The Squall Line Moves Through And Transform To A
Heavy Rainfall Environment From West To East. This Should Start
Saturday Evening And Last Well Into Sunday Morning. As The Upper
Low Moves Ne And Merges With The Long Wave Trough...the Main Rosby
Wave Behind The System Will Dig Southward Causing The Cold Front
To Slow And Possibly Stall For Several Hours Until The Long Wave
Trough Catches Up Pushing All The Weather Eastward. Where This
Frontal Axis Slows Or Stalls Will Be The Question. Training Ts May
Become A Problem For Some Areas. Too Early To Tell Where This Will
Be Attm.

After All This Gets By Us...another System Develops And Moves Our
Way. So Things Become A Little More Progressive And Wet Over The
Next Several Days.

Its Either Too Much Or Too Little Lately But It Should Put A Good
Dent In The Drought Values.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 04-29-2006 05:52 AM

Today...Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the morning... Then mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms May be severe. Highs in the lower 80s. Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of showers and thunderstorms 30 percent.

Tonight...Numerous showers and thunderstorms in the evening... Then widespread showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Windy. Some thunderstorms May be severe in the evening. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows around 70. South winds 20 to 30 mph shifting to the southwest 10 to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of showers and thunderstorms 90 percent.

Sunday...Cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of thunderstorms 50 percent.

Sunday Night...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Light and variable winds becoming northeast around 10 mph after midnight.