Hardcore Weather
New Orleans Local Weather thread - Printable Version

+- Hardcore Weather (http://hardcoreweather.com)
+-- Forum: Weather (/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: Local Weather (/forum-13.html)
+--- Thread: New Orleans Local Weather thread (/thread-4989.html)



New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-12-2008 08:17 AM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2008

.SHORT TERM...
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INVADES THE AREA FROM THE EAST. A STRONG HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH LATER TODAY AND THEN SW BY MONDAY
PUSHING THE SYSTEM OVER GA TOWARD THE WEST. THIS PROCESS WILL BE
BETTER NOTICED BY TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH HEADS TOWARD OUR AREA IT
WILL ABSORB AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO ITS MID LEVELS CAUSING A
WET BULB COOLING EFFECT. THE COOLING OF THE HIGHS OVERALL COLUMN
WILL CAUSE IT TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES. BUT NOT BEFORE
IT FORCES THE SE COASTAL SYSTEM BACK OVER THE AREA.

LOOKING AT THAT SE COAST SYSTEM...IT CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH. AIR AND DP TEMPS STILL INDICATE A RELATIVELY COLD
CORE SYSTEM BUT THIS CONTINUES TO CHANGE WITH TIME. THIS PSEUDO
EASTERLY WAVE WILL GIVE US THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN WE HAVE HAD
FOR A WHILE AS IT GETS FORCED BACK TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT GETS DEEP ENOUGH (UP TO ~600MB) TO BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE 30% MARK BY MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE VERY UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN IS THE ONLY VARIABLE FORECAST ATTM THROUGH THE
PERIOD EXCLUDING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENTS WILL DEVELOP JUST ABOVE THE BL WHICH MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES BUT INSTABILITY AND LIFT
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET THIS MOISTURE MIXED THROUGH THE FREEZING
LEVEL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BEING WELL OFFSHORE.



.LONG TERM...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN LA AREA AND STALL
TEMPORARILY THU THROUGH EARLY FRI. A STRONG HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND BEGIN RIDGING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SE
CANADA. THIS IS QUITE A STRETCH FOR THE HIGH...AND A SECONDARY SFC LOW
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT WOULD SUGGEST A NEW SECONDARY SFC HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE BUT NO MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SCENARIO
ATTM. REGARDLESS OF THE SECONDARY HIGH FORMING...THE FRONT WILL
GET REENERGIZED AND FORCED THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE FRI. TS
ACTIVITY IS NOT HIGHLY EXPECTED BUT THE EXTRA LIFT BY THE FRONT
WILL HAVE TO BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-13-2008 05:24 AM

000
fxus64 klix 130827
afdlix

area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
327 am cdt mon oct 13 2008

.short term...
Most forecast issues in the short term will hinge on easterly flow
that is anticipated to stengthen as the east coast high pressure
area builds southward and tightens gradient into the gulf of
mexico. This will make coastal exposed areas vulnerable to coastal
flooding from abnormally high tides. See marine section below.
Radar already indicating scattered coverage of maritime showers
extending from the coastal marshes eastward into the gulf well
below mississippi sound. Isolated light marine layer showers also
penetrating inland into east-central mississippi. Based on this
trend and apparent poor initialization of this regime in the
models...will go higher than guidance for rain chances today...40
percent near the gulf and down-wind from marine influences...30
percent elsewhere today...maintaining isolated shower coverage
overnight. Temperatures will be affected by marine layer cloud
cover but lower 80s seem attainable...which is near normal. Above
normal morning temperatures will yield above normal mean
temperatures for the next few days.

.long term...
Easterly flow to persist at least until late thursday or early
friday when models show frontal passage to bring offshore flow and
subsequent lowering of tide levels for this weekend. Frontal
passage will allow morning lows to fall to near normal levels with
near normal mid-october temperature ranges anticipated from friday
through sunday...along with dry conditions.


&&

.aviation.../12z tafs/
easterly flow will continue to bring moisture into the
area...resulting in mvfr cigs that are expected to affect all
terminals through today. Cloud cover should help keep moderate or
dense fog from occurring but some reduction in vsbys due to light
fog will be possible at kmcb around sunrise. As daytime heating sets
in...cigs should lift and all terminals are expected to return to
vfr conditions no later than 17z. East winds will increase for all
sites today bringing sustained winds up to 13kts with gusts up to
20kts. 17

&&

.marine...
A westward moving inverted trough over the gulf will cause pressures
to lower somewhat over the northern and central gulf. A strong sfc
high will continue to settle into the se conus at the same time. The
pressure gradient between these two features will tighten quite a
bit causing winds to increase. The stronger winds will cause water
to begin piling along the east facing shorelines of se la and a
portion of coastal miss. Water is expected to inundated some
secondary roadways and lowest lying areas near the coast. Major
problems with tidal surge is not expected but these conditions are
expected to cause inconveniences especially during times of high
tide.

East winds will increase toward 20 to 25 knots today and tonight.
Persistent east winds through much of the week will maintain seas
generally in the 5 to 7 ft range and tides of 2 to 3 feet above
normal along east facing shores and within the tidal lakes and bays.
Small advisories will begin today and run through at least tuesday
night and a coastal flood watch will be issued this morning for well
above normal tide levels through thursday. 17

high tide times today and tuesday:
Barataria pass...grand isle
today 10:22pm +1.4ft / tuesday 10:37pm +1.6ft

rigolets...lake borgne
today 11:53pm +1.1ft / early wednesday morning

southwest pass...mississippi river
today 9:00pm +1.5ft / tuesday 9:11pm +1.7ft

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-13-2008 09:27 AM

Coastal hazard message
national weather service new orleans la
403 am cdt mon oct 13 2008

...coastal food watch is in effect...

.tides are running above normal and are expected to increase over
the next few days.

Laz038-040-049-050-057-058-060>062-064-068>070-msz080-131715-
/o.new.klix.cf.a.0004.081013t0903z-081017t0000z/
tangipahoa-st. Tammany-ascension-livingston-st. James-
st. John the baptist-st. Charles-upper jefferson-orleans-
upper st. Bernard-lower jefferson-lower plaquemines-
lower st. Bernard-han****-
403 am cdt mon oct 13 2008

...coastal flood watch in effect through thursday evening...

The national weather service in new orleans has issued a coastal
flood watch...which is in effect through thursday evening.

Moderate easterly winds will increase to around 20 to 25 knots
later today through wednesday. Continued easterly winds are
already causing tides around 2 feet above normal at most coastal
locations of southeast louisiana and the western portion of
coastal mississippi. As winds increase toward 25 knots over the
northern gulf...water levels may rise another foot bringing total
water heights possibly approaching 3 feet above normal by late
tonight and tuesday. If tide levels approach 3 feet above normal
within the next few days a coastal flood warning may be issued.
Tides are not expected to fall to normal levels until thursday.

A coastal flood watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be
alert for later statements or warnings...and take action to
protect property...particularly outside


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-13-2008 01:53 PM

Zardous weather outlook
national weather service new orleans la
1025 am cdt mon oct 13 2008

gmz530-550-555-570-575-laz034>040-046>050-056>070-msz068>071-077-
080>082-141100-
lake pontchartrain and lake maurepas-
coastal waters from the southwest pass of the mississippi river
to lower atchafalaya river la out 20 nm-
coastal waters from pascagoula ms to the southwest pass of the
mississippi river out 20 nm-
coastal waters from the southwest pass of the mississippi river
to lower atchafalaya river la from 20 to 60 nm-
coastal waters from pascagoula ms to the southwest pass of the
mississippi river from 20 to 60 nm-pointe coupee-west feliciana-
east feliciana-st. Helena-tangipahoa-washington-st. Tammany-
iberville-west baton rouge-east baton rouge-ascension-livingston-
assumption-st. James-st. John the baptist-upper lafourche-
st. Charles-upper jefferson-orleans-upper plaquemines-
upper st. Bernard-upper terrebonne-lower terrebonne-
lower lafourche-lower jefferson-lower plaquemines-
lower st. Bernard-wilkinson-amite-pike-walthall-pearl river-
han****-harrison-jackson-
1030 am cdt mon oct 13 2008

this hazardous weather outlook is for portions of coastal waters
of southeast louisiana and south mississippi...southeast
louisiana and southern mississippi.

.day one...this afternoon and tonight

coastal flooding...
Strong and persistent easterly flow will maintain higher than normal
tide levels today...mainly along east facing shores and within the
tidal lakes and bays. The greatest impacts will be inundation of
access roads...some marinas and areas outside of the hurricane levee
protection system. A coastal flood watch is in effect from bay saint
louis mississippi to caminada pass louisiana including lake
pontchartrain and lake maurepas.

Marine hazard...
A small craft advisory is in effect for the coastal waters through
tonight for strong east winds 20 to 25 knots and seas 6 to 8 feet.

.days two through seven...tuesday through sunday

coastal flooding...
East winds will maintain higher than normal tides around 2 feet
and possibly reaching 3 feet above normal tuesday through
thursday. A coastal flood watch is in effect through late thursday
and a coastal flood warning may be required if tide levels exceed
3 feet.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-13-2008 06:49 PM

FXUS64 KLIX 132012
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
312 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT OF CONTINUED
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE PASSAGE OF A OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER COASTAL AREAS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING
INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION. THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL LIFT OUT TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH IN AMPLITUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
CARVING OUT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...THEREFORE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
DRY AIR AND MORE TYPICAL FALL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE LOW LEVEL
EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF. ISOLATED MARINE TYPE SHOWERS
SHOULD ONLY IMPACT KMSY...WITH ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON VERY LIMITED IN AREA AND TIME. EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET AT ALL TERMINALS. CEILINGS AT OR BELOW
1000 FEET TO RETURN AROUND 10Z THROUGH MID MORNING ON TUESDAY...
WITH LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KMCB...WHERE VISIBILITIES
COULD DROP TO 1 OR 2 MILES FOR A SHORT TIME. 35

&&

.MARINE...
A WESTWARD MOVING INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF WILL CAUSE PRESSURES
TO LOWER OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE SE CONUS AT THE SAME TIME. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL TIGHTEN...CAUSING WINDS TO
INCREASE. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP ALONG THE
EAST FACING SHORELINES OF SE LA AND COASTAL MISS. WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INUNDATE SOME SECONDARY ROADWAYS AND LOWEST LYING AREAS NEAR THE
COAST. MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH TIDAL SURGE ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCONVENIENCE ESPECIALLY DURING
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

SUSTAINED EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD 20 TO


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-14-2008 06:08 AM

FXUS64 KLIX 140831
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES WITH
A WEDGE OF MOISTURE OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA IN RESPONSE TO LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. RADAR SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW
RETURNS MOVING INTO THE CHANDELEUR SOUND BUT FAR LESS COVERAGE
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. WILL INDICATE JUST 20 PERCENT
AREA-WIDE TODAY FOR MARINE LAYER TYPE SHOWERS...PROBABLY BEST
CHANCES THIS MORNING AS COLUMN DRIES IN TIME LATER TODAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID OCTOBER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 24

.LONG TERM...
BACK DOOR FRONT OR AT LEAST DRAINAGE AFFECTS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
PACIFIC FRONT LATE FRIDAY AS UPPER ZONAL FLOW BUCKLES WITH AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SOME
RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRY
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 24

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRIER AIRMASS HAS
ALLOWED FOR CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT THESE
CLEAR SKIES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AS THIS RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. AFTER AROUND 15Z...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000
FEET...WHICH WILL KEEP THE TERMINALS IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 32

&&

.MARINE...
SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO WANE
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
BEFORE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET AND TIDES RUNNING 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND
TIDAL LAKES. TIDES AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO FALL LATE THIS EVENING AS
THE WINDS SLACK OFF. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO EASE INTO TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LIGHT WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS WILL BE THE TREND THROGUH FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE BACK INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT RANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. 32

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-14-2008 06:33 PM

FXUS64 KLIX 142006
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
306 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
UPPPER RIGDE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT DAMPENS
QUICKLY AS IT MOVES TOWARD STRONG UPPER HIGH LOCKED INTO OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FORECAST TO SAG SE AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY. IN
THE NEAR TERM...RAIN CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT DO NOT LOOK TOO
PROMISING AS UPPER HIGH OVER THE SE U.S. SETTLE SOUTHWARD TO
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION WITH DRY AIR WRAPPRING INTO THE
REGION. POP GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING FROM BTR THRU NEW ORLEANS AREAS. MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD SHOULD DIMINISH SOME BY LATE WEDENSDAY
AS GRADIENT RELAXES AS FRONT APPROACHES. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSE TO AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHATEVER PCPN IS OCCURRING SHOULD
MOVE OFF THE COAST WHEN NW FLOW AT MID LEVELS BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES. A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS SPILLS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT 40S INTO SW MS AND ADJACENT
INTERIOR AREAS OF LA. DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR LARGE
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S IN THE MANY AREAS.
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE AREA.

.&&

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS LIFTED INTO A CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE
AREA THAT TOOK UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS STILL EXIST. ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOT THE RADAR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...BUT AREAL EXTENT IS
EXTREMELY LIMITED. ANY DISRUPTION OF AIR TRAFFIC WOULD BE EXTREMELY
LOW CHANCE AND TEMPORARY...AND WILL NOT CARRY IN FORECAST.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY MORNING...JUST AS THE PAST
COUPLE OF MORNINGS. AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...EARLY MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE
LIMITED TOMORROW. EXPECT CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR RANGE FROM
10Z-15Z...WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS AT THE USUAL SPOT...KMCB. 35
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-15-2008 06:35 AM

000
fxus64 klix 150854
afdlix

area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
354 am cdt wed oct 15 2008

.short term...
Drier air continues to filter into the forecast area from the
appalachians and should limit cloud cover and rain chances today
and tonight. Easterly winds have softened a bit and should be less
today than days past. Temperatures to run above normal today and
again thursday.

.long term...
Main weather concern this package is rain chances with cold
frontal passage slated for late friday. Continental airmass
presses south and east but atlantic ridge likely to limit moisture
return to just along and immediately behind the front. Will
maintain the 40 persent currently out for friday...followed by a
return to dry conditions by late friday night or early
saturday...continuing through tuesday. Temperature should fall
closer to normal for mid-october this weekend.

&&

.aviation...
/12z taf/
a shallow inversion has developed along the mississippi coast and
the northshore this morning. A low stratus deck running around 100
to 500 feet and lowering visibilities have begun to develop over
this area the last couple of hours. Ifr conditions will be
possible from 12-14z at kmcb...kbtr...and kgpt. Expect the
inversion to break between 13 and 15z this morning...with vfr
conditions returning the area after 15z and persisting through the
late evening hours. However...a strong ridge of high pressure will
be entrenched over the region...allowing another inversion to set
up around 06z tonight. Another round of low clouds and fog will be
possible at kgpt...kmcb...and kbtr.

&&

.marine...
High pressure continues to build over the coastal waters tonight.
This trend should continue through the day...allowing for a
gradual decrease in the easterly gradient flow affecting the
coastal waters. Expect winds and seas to subside through the day
as the high builds in...and remain below small craft conditions
through friday. A strong cold front is expected to swing through
the coastal waters friday night...on the back of a deep upper
level trough diving through the eastern third of the nation. Winds
should increase behind the front...as strong cold and dry air
advection takes hold. Small craft advisories will most likely be
needed for the weekend.

The persistent easterly flow has also allowed tides to rise to 1 to
2 feet above normal. These higher tides should persist through
tomorrow along the coast...and through friday in the tidal lakes as
the water has only 2 narrow passes to exit lake pontchartrain
through. However...no additional rise in tide levels are
expected...and the coastal flood watch will be cancelled and
replaced with a coastal flood advisory to reflect the lower tide
levels.

&&

Coastal Flood Advisory
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2008

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT...

.TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED REMAIN
ABNORMALLY HIGH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

LAZ038-040-049-050-057-058-060>062-064-070-151715-
/O.UPG.KLIX.CF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-081017T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KLIX.CF.Y.0001.081015T0904Z-081018T0000Z/
TANGIPAHOA-ST. TAMMANY-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-LOWER ST. BERNARD-
404 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2008

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

EASTERLY WINDS HAVE LESSENED ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS BUT LAKE
LEVELS IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN...MAUREPAS AND BORGNE REMAIN ABOUT 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND LEVELING OFF. NO ADDITIONAL VOLUME OF
WATER IS EXPECTED BUT THE TIDAL LAKES WILL STAY AT HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LEVELS UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE HIGHER WATER LEVELS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
INUNDATION OF COASTAL ACCESS ROADS AND A FEW MARINAS OUTSIDE THE
HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEE SYSTEMS...LOCK OPERATIONS AND MARINE
TRAFFIC AFFECTED BY TIDAL LEVELS.

$$


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-15-2008 04:31 PM

FXUS64 KLIX 152016
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
316 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2008

.SHORT TERM...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
AREA WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW. WARM HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE GRADUALLY ENTER
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
REST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY.
WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE WEST.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-16-2008 04:15 AM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
316 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2008

.SHORT TERM...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
AREA WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW. WARM HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE GRADUALLY ENTER
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
REST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY.
WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE WEST.

&&