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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-06-2008 05:36 AM

000
fxus64 klix 060921
afdlix

area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
421 am cdt mon oct 6 2008

.discussion...
Short range models are having a time initializing the
precipitable water value field across the gulf. Goes sounder pw
display showed relatively dry air over the northwest gulf and mass
clouds and moisture over central and east gulf. Surface high has
retreated over the northeast conus and upper level high over the
east gulf should speed up moisture return from the east gulf today.
The relatively dry air over northwest gulf will advect north too
across the forecast area today. With no uniformity to the moisture
fields...we expect an increase in rain chances today and tonight
but not as high nam numbers...will go close to gfs pops for today
and tonight. Gfs continue to show a vort max and qpf bullseye over
the area tuesday. Will carry likely pops for frontal passage not
the low developing. Upper level analysis at 5h a negatively tilted
trough axis from western montana to west texas. An early
negatively tilted trough usually equates to a quick shot of precip
in a squall line along the gulf and strong storms to the north.
However...a vort max on the backside of the trough will likely
prevent the trough from lifting north and keep the trough sharp
and moving to the mississippi valley by tuesday afternoon.
Isotachs analysis at 250mb at 120 to 130 jet max nosing southeast
across washington to the great basin. However...this jet max
become more west to east through tuesday...according gfs...ngm and
nam. Ergo...upper level dynamics and energy should remain north.
Strong storms are expected ahead the trough axis tuesday afternoon
and tuesday night. A progressive flow will keep the westerly
intact over the area through the weekend. Southwest flow is
expected to bring these embedded disturbances across the area over
the weekend. Will carry a chance of rain friday night into
saturday. Gfs has pegged the timing of the first system ... So
will go along the gfs thinking with next stronger system moving
through the forecast next monday.

&&

.aviation...
Mostly vfr conditions should prevail at msy...btr...gpt...mcb
today. The best chance for showers will be at btr this afternoon.
Areas of fog/stratus are possible around msy and btr monday
night/tuesday morning as more moisture pushes across the area. 25

&&

.marine...
Moderate flow due to the pressure gradient will ease today. This
will allow winds and seas to fall below small craft advisory
criteria. Generally southeasterly flow will turn northwesterly on
wednesday as a cold front pushes through the area. 25


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-06-2008 04:30 PM

FXUS64 KLIX 062033
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...

A STRONG SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS THE TROUGH PULL
EASTWARD...A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DIVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE A BIT
SLOWER AND KEEP LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS...WITH A
BIT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE GFS SOLUTION.

WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TO CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH END
CHANCE TO REFLECT THIS. DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND A BROAD AREA OF LIFT THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PASS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE FRONT PULLS THROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR A SQUALL OR SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP AS A STRONG SPEED SHEAR FROM 0 TO 3 KM OF
AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE PLACE. KEEP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY
CATAGORY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH HIGH END CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT SLIDES
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING
SKIES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...

THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURES
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS STRONG RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
AND A LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PULL EASTWARD BY SATURDAY...AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR GULF MOISTURE TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK
OVER THE REGION. ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SHOULD BE IN PLACE...AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND TO SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN ZONES...AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER IN THIS
REGION. BY MONDAY...DEEPER GULF MOISTURE SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SPARKED BY A DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AND THUS
A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND THIS
WEEKEND AS THE GULF MOISTURE SPREADS IN...WITH LOWS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...AND HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-07-2008 06:54 AM

000
fxus64 klix 070828
afdlix

area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
328 am cdt tue oct 7 2008

.synopsis...
High pressure over ontario still controlling weather over most of
the country east of the mississippi river. Low pressure at surface
and aloft over kansas with cold front into central texas...with
convection from missouri into central texas.

Southeasterly flow has returned moisture to our area however...as
noted by convection over the gulf and southern mississippi.
Northern edge of 70 degree dew points resides along our northern
border with jackson`s area.
&&

.short term...
Most of the sensible weather in the 7 day forecast will occur
during the first 24 to 36 hours. Upper trof over kansas this
morning will move eastward over the next 3 days. 00z nam seems to
be the outlier...west solution...closing off an upper low over our
area from wednesday through friday. Gfs and ecmwf are more
progressive with the system...with the upper trof axis east of our
area by 00z thursday.

For this morning...much of the precipitation should remain near
and to the east of the pearl river...where best moist inflow
resides. Upper trof will provide better lift over northern two
thirds of mississippi than over our area. Will go with highest
pops...near 80 percent far east...and 40 to 50 percent west today.
Expect main area of precipitation with upper trof to gradually end
from west to east overnight tonight...although some light precip
could linger across far eastern areas and coastal waters into
wednesday. Rainfall totals could be 1 to 2 inches east of the
pearl river...with lesser amounts to the west. Would not be
absolutely shocked to see a few portions of the west remain dry.

High temperatures today and wednesday will be cooler than the last
few days due to the limited sunshine. While air behind this system
is not appreciably cooler...it will be drier...allowing for cooler
overnight lows by wednesday night. Highs thursday close to normal. 35
&&

.long term...
As upper trof exits the atlantic coast...upper ridge returns to
the eastern u.s. Upper trof moves into the rockies...and only very
slowly moves into the center of the country by the middle of next
week. This will leave southeast louisiana and southern mississippi
in a generally dry weather regime through the weekend into at
least early next week. This will bring above normal temperatures
to the area for the extended portion of the forecast. 35
&&

.aviation...discussion for 06z tafs
scattered showers continue to affect coastal areas of mississippi
and southeast louisiana and the adjacent coastal waters with some
increase in coverage noted. This activity seems to be developing
in an area of divergent flow aloft. The kgpt and kmsy taf sites
are the most likely to be impacted by the showers through sunrise.
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that mvfr
ceilings are developing across areas of southeast louisiana and
south mississippi. This trend is expected to continue through the
early morning hours with mvfr ceilings forecast at each taf site
along with mvfr visibilities mainly due to fog at times. Convection
coverage is expected to increase after daybreak and persist
through the afternoon as a significant upper level trough
approaches from the west. Mvfr ceilings are forecast for the
balance of the day.
&&

.marine...
Tides will remain slightly above normal for one more tide cycle...but
not high enough to trigger any coastal flood products. Expect
southeast winds 10 to 15 knots and seas 3 to 5 feet until after
frontal passage wednesday.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-07-2008 08:39 AM

FXUS64 KLIX 070828
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
328 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO STILL CONTROLLING WEATHER OVER MOST OF
THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOW PRESSURE AT SURFACE
AND ALOFT OVER KANSAS WITH COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH
CONVECTION FROM MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.

SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS RETURNED MOISTURE TO OUR AREA HOWEVER...AS
NOTED BY CONVECTION OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
NORTHERN EDGE OF 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS RESIDES ALONG OUR NORTHERN
BORDER WITH JACKSON`S AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE 7 DAY FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. UPPER TROF OVER KANSAS THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO
BE THE OUTLIER...WEST SOLUTION...CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF OUR
AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
AND TO THE EAST OF THE PEARL RIVER...WHERE BEST MOIST INFLOW
RESIDES. UPPER TROF WILL PROVIDE BETTER LIFT OVER NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF MISSISSIPPI THAN OVER OUR AREA. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST
POPS...NEAR 80 PERCENT FAR EAST...AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT WEST TODAY.
EXPECT MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH UPPER TROF TO GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP
COULD LINGER ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS AND COASTAL WATERS INTO
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE 1 TO 2 INCHES EAST OF THE
PEARL RIVER...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. WOULD NOT BE
ABSOLUTELY SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW PORTIONS OF THE WEST REMAIN DRY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS DUE TO THE LIMITED SUNSHINE. WHILE AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
IS NOT APPRECIABLY COOLER...IT WILL BE DRIER...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY CLOSE TO NORMAL. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
AS UPPER TROF EXITS THE ATLANTIC COAST...UPPER RIDGE RETURNS TO
THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES...AND ONLY VERY
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
IN A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-08-2008 07:00 AM

FXUS64 KLIX 080901
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2008

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BUT
MUCH OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAD MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA
YESTERDAY EVENING. ONLY VERY SPARSE AND SMALL LIGHT SHOWERS DEMARK
THE ACTUAL FRONT FROM TYLERTOWN TO HAMMOND AND LAKE MAUREPAS...
MOVING EAST AROUND 25 MPH AS OF THIS WRITING. LOWER DEWPOINT AIR
TO THE WEST WILL BE PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION TODAY. ONLY REAL
CONSIDERATIONS WILL BE POTENTIAL STRATOCUMULUS FIELD UNDER COLD
POOL DURING DAYTIME HEATING THAT MAY HAVE AN AFFECT ON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...A NICE AUTUMN DAY IN STORE WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAY-TO-DAY
MODERATION.

.LONG TERM...
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THEN STALLS...BECOMING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DEEP TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF
TROUGH LIKELY TO TAKE RESIDENCE NEAR OR OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST...THIS SHOULD SET UP A MOISTURE SOURCE REGION THAT WILL BE
ABLE TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TO IMPART
20-30 PERCENT MARITIME SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...MOST PROBABLE NEAR
THE COAST AND EAST-FACING SHORES. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE NAM
SOLUTION AND SOMEWHAT FASTER ONSET THAN GFS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN MARITIME INFLUENCES TO KEEP MORNING MINS
WARMER BY ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES FROM CLIMO AND 20 DEGREE DIURNAL
RANGES TO PUSH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S...OR 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-09-2008 12:38 PM

ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
725 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS ISSUANCE
LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUD DECKS OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI. CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL SEND THESE CLOUD
SOUTH AND PRODUCE CEILINGS 500 TO 1000 FEET THROUGH 14Z AT GPT AND
1000 TO 1500 FEET AT GPT AND MSY. MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEALED THAT
THESE DECKS SHOULD BE SHALLOW AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 16Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z AT MCB AND BTR...AMENDMENTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT MCB DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
YIELD MVFR CONDITIONS AT MCB...GPT AND BTR FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2008/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS ALL BUT STALLED OVER THE SE GULF. SFC LOW OVER
GEORGIA WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE FLA PANHANDLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SOME MODEL TRENDS ARE SEEING THIS AS AN INCREASE IN
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER STARTING LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE AS THE NAM HAS. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS UP BY A FEW DEGREES
BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS LOCAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUGGEST.

AS THE FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE GULF...EASTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO
ATTACK THE STALLED FRONAL BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY AS AIR AND DP TEMPS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. AN
EASTERLY WAVE IS THEN BROUGHT IN WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE CLOSEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FCAST.

LONG TERM...
FORCING WEAKENS A GREAT DEAL AS THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO STALL NEAR OR
WITHIN THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ISSUE WITH THIS IS RAINFALL.
CURRENT SOLUTIONS RAPIDLY ERODE RAINFALL ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHILE
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING DEEP MOISTURE UP TO THE STALLED
FRONT. DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME SH/TS ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FRONT WHILE NIGHT ACTIVITY DECREASES. THEN AGAIN THIS IS
OCTOBER AND STATISTICALLY IT IS A DRY MONTH. SO WE WOULD LIKE TO
GET A LITTLE CLOSER IN TIME TO THE FRONT BEFORE MAKING ANY DRASTIC
CHANGES.

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT FOG AT TIMES EARLY THIS
MORNING AT ALL SITES BUT KMSY AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE EAST LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
THE GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING TIDES


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-09-2008 03:33 PM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 092021
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
321 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2008

.SHORT TERM...

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A BROKEN DECK TO
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. THIS BROKEN DECK SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PULL EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW...AN UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND STRONG RADIATION AL COOLING TONIGHT.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS...EXPECT A STRONG INVERSION TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY FORM
TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOW HUMIDITIES...A FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG EXPECTED.

HOWEVER...A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STALL TO
THE EAST OF FLORIDA...AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS STALLING AND THEN WESTWARD
MOTION WILL BE DRIVEN THE STRONG RIDGE RECENTERING ITSELF OVER THE
CAROLINAS...AND DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE GULF
SOUTH. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF...EXPECT A FEW MARINE
SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...ALL OF THE MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGE MAINTAINING ITSELF OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND A GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING
ACROSS THE REGION. THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SHOULD PASS THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT INCREASED HUMIDITY...CLOUD
COVER...AND POPS AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS THROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM...A FAIRLY TROPICAL REGIME WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA.
DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE...AND ENOUGH
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST TO SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MORE
ISOLATED POPS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 10-10-2008 06:22 AM

000
fxus64 klix 100841
afdlix

area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
341 am cdt fri oct 10 2008

.short term...
Moisture associated with the sfc low over the se will begin to get
pulled westward as a strong cold front drops into the lee of the
rockies and strengthen sunday through monday. The tropical wave
that is thought to move westward over the gulf at the same time
looks more like an inverted cold core trough instead. Basically it
looks as if the strong easterlies (along with the very strong
ridging building from the east) that develop during the first part
of next week begin to force the old frontal boundary back toward
the west. The interesting thing is that the boundary begins to
act more like an easterly wave as the temp and dp temp gradient
across the old boundary become nonexistant by the first of next
week.

.long term...
The stronger cold front that moves in from the lee of the rockies
will stall north of the area first and then get reenergized and forced
southward by a new high that drops quickly out of canada. This
should bring the front through here by the end of next week.

&&

.aviation...
/12z tafs/
ambient temperatures are within generally 3 to 4f of dewpoint at all
four taf sites at 08z fri. Near saturation is expected around
sunrise. However...short duration of time will limit dense fog
development and ifr to lifr conditions possible at mcb. Most sites
will see mvfr conditions due to fog this morning. Vfr conditions
expected from 15z fri to 06z sat. Look for a repeat in conditions
for saturday morning. 18

.marine...
Relatively weak high pressure ridge settling over the lower
mississippi valley will maintain north to east winds generally 10
knots or less through early saturday. Later saturday through early
next week...strong high pressure will build from the mid atlantic
states to the interior southeast. This is expected to bring easterly
winds and seas up just below small craft advisory criteria late
sunday night or monday with tides also rising above normal across
the tidal lakes and east facing shores. 18


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-10-2008 09:14 PM

FXUS64 KLIX 101955
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
255 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. UPPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS DRIFTING SLOWLY
WESTSOUTHWESTWARD. CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE LANDMASS IS VERY EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE. MIDDAY TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 80 WITH DEW
POINTS BETWEEN 60 AND 65 IN MOST AREAS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
OVERALL...A QUIET WEEKEND...AS SURFACE FEATURES AFFECTING THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY. UPPER LOW WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND TRAVEL WESTWARD AS AN
INVERTED TROF. THIS TROF SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT
OCCURRED THIS MORNING...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
AFTER INVERTED TROF MOVES WEST OF THE AREA...UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS
INTO OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AFTER MONDAY OR TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER
ISOLATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. 35

&&

.AVIATION...


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-11-2008 07:05 AM

FXUS64 KLIX 110915
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

.SHORT TERM...
NO CHANGES TO ONGOING PACK. STATUS QUO CONDITIONS CONTINUE WHICH
WOULD MAKE IT HARD TO ACHEIVE SKILL POINTS. WE WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RAMP UP RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
OLD FRONT OVER THE GULF GETS REACTIVATED AND PUSHED WEST AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA BY
WED. WILL HAVE TO WAIT A FEW MORE DAYS TO SEE IF THE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
FORCING IT THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM TEMPO MVFR VSBY IN BR/HZ AROUND DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN TEMPO MVFR
VSBY IN BR WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. 24

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH EASTERLY FLOW BECOMING MODERATE AND
PERSISTENT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TIDES ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES
AND WITHIN THE TIDAL LAKES WILL BECOME ABNORMALLY HIGH ONCE AGAIN
UNTIL GRADIENT SOFTENS A BIT THURSDAY. 24


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 85 64 84 66 / 10 10 10 10
BTR 86 65 85 68 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 84 70 83 71 / 10 10 10 20
GPT 84 64 82 68 / 10 10 10 20

&&